Why is it that almost every season Major League Baseball’s clinch scenarios are better explained by internet sleuths than the people who run the sport?
Almost 10 years ago, the Blue Jays believed they were on the verge of securing a playoff spot for the first time since 1993. It figured to be a monumental occasion that players, employees and fans alike were eager to celebrate.
The Jays entered a game against the Tampa Bay Rays on Sept. 25, 2015 with a magic number of two. They earned a 5-3 victory to get one step closer, but according to MLB’s playoff projections they also needed losses by the Minnesota Twins and Los Angeles Angels to make it official. Only one of those things happened, so players inside the clubhouse turned off the televisions and went back to their hotel to sleep.
The celebration would have to wait for another day. Well, at least that’s what they thought.
A small group of fans on Twitter did some late-night digging and found a flaw in MLB’s math. While the magic number was technically correct, it didn’t account for the number of games that AL West teams had scheduled against each other. Only two of the Texas Rangers, Houston Astros and Angels could max out at 88 wins, which the Jays already had.
They had already clinched; they just didn’t know it until the following morning. That created an awkward pre-game media availability where reporters, including myself, showed up for reaction from players and club personnel. The Jays responded by trying to pretend none of it was real, to avoid spoiling the impromptu celebration scheduled for later in the day.
Followers of the Jays had been waiting 22 years for something like this. Fans too young to remember George Bell falling to his knees after clinching the AL East title in 1985 longed to witness a signature moment of their own. They instead had to settle for explanations through math and spreadsheets.
History nearly repeated itself this week. The Jays went into Thursday’s game against the Rays with a magic number of three proudly displayed in the game notes. Sportsnet, also owned by Rogers Communications, made a trade with Apple TV+ to simulcast Friday’s game against the Kansas City Royals because it was believed to be the first night the Jays could clinch a playoff spot.
What few people realized was that it could have occurred Thursday. Given the number games remaining between two other contenders, the Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers, all that needed to happen for the Jays to punch their ticket was a win over the Rays and a Guardians loss to the Tigers.
Neither of those happened, which is the only reason there wasn’t a repeat of 2015.
After the Jays lost in Florida, a handful of fans on X —  — pointed out that the Jays could clinch Friday in Kansas City despite the reported magic number of three. The confusion went viral and prompted several members of the media to seek clarification from MLB.
MLB responded with updated information, sent to rightsholders and in-house media: the Jays could clinch Friday with a victory over the Royals plus losses “by any two of the following three teams: Tigers (vs. Atlanta), Red Sox (at Tampa Bay) and Guardians (at Minnesota).”
From giving Anthony Santander some MLB at-bats to allowing Jeff Hoffman a break before the playoffs start, º£½ÇÉçÇø¹ÙÍøstill has other goals to reach.
From giving Anthony Santander some MLB at-bats to allowing Jeff Hoffman a break before the playoffs start, º£½ÇÉçÇø¹ÙÍøstill has other goals to reach.
The initial oversight wasn’t as big a deal as in 2015. After going more than two decades without a playoff berth, the Jays are on the verge of getting one for the sixth time in the last 11 seasons. Also, it isn’t the primary goal. A division title and potential first-round bye matter more, and entering Friday night that magic number was still six.
Even so, the build-up to this clinch has been sloppier than it needed to be.
You’d think MLB had learned its lesson a decade ago and would have someone dedicated to not just updating magic numbers every day, but making sure they align with the upcoming schedule. Apparently not.
To be clear, the media aren’t without blame here, including this columnist. The fact that the Jays could have clinched Thursday wasn’t mentioned on the broadcast, and print reporters were slow to realize the information from MLB wasn’t entirely accurate. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Or something like that.
At least this time the mistake didn’t come back to haunt anyone.
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