The Blue Jays have opened up a comfortable lead in the American League East and it feels inevitable that they will lock up a division crown for the first time since 2015.
Ten years go, the Jays didn’t clinch the top spot until Sept. 30 when there were four games remaining in the regular season. They were also in the mix to finish with the best record in the American League before ultimately falling short on the final day.
This season, the Jays are in better shape. It’s not a question of if, but when, they will punch their ticket.
Since the Jays won’t be required to sprint to the finish line they can use the next week and a half as a tune-up for the playoffs. Getting injured Bo Bichette back to full strength for an AL Division Series is the top priority, but it isn’t the only item on the to-do list.
Here are the top things the Jays need to figure out before the playoffs:
Anthony Santander’s role
Santander hasn’t appeared in a big-league game since May 29 because of a shoulder injury. He recently began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Buffalo where he entered Wednesday with four hits, including a home run, in 18 at-bats. Buffalo’s season ends on Sunday, which means Santander is expected to re-join the Jays by Sept. 22, if not sooner.
The 30-year-old will then use the final week to get up to speed. If he impresses, the Jays could start him in the outfield or at designated hitter. If he struggles, Santander likely will be limited to pinch hitting in the post-season, if he’s used at all. Complicating matters is that Santander’s a notoriously slow starter with a career .204 average and .645 on-base plus slugging percentage in March and April. That’s not a great sign considering Santander is essentially starting his year from scratch.
Getting Jeff Hoffman a break
Hoffman’s struggles have been well-documented. The first-year closer has allowed 15 home runs, which is tied for the most by any reliever in the majors. He also has seven blown saves and seven losses while sporting a mediocre 4.64 ERA. The Jays will need him to perform better than that if they intend on winning a lot of tight ballgames in October.
Most of Hoffman’s issues have come when he’s overworked. The 32-year-old has a 0.98 ERA when pitching on one day of rest and a 4.42 ERA on back-to-backs. The numbers dip further during stretches when he’s used in three out of four games. Hoffman has tossed 64 innings and the workload appears to be taking a toll. When he’s at his best, the former first-round pick consistently hits 96-97 m.p.h. During recent outings, his fastball has been sitting 93-94.Â
Setting the playoff rotation
Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber are the favourites to start Games 1 and 2, although the order has yet to be determined. That leaves two spots in a best-of-five series for Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt, José BerrÃos and possibly highly touted rookie Trey Yesavage. Those are some big names and two are bound to be disappointed by whatever decision the Jays make.
Each pitcher has a couple starts left to make their case. Scherzer and Bassitt were considered the front-runners but it’s possible that changed after Yesavage struck out nine batters while allowing one run in his debut. Two more outings like that might force the Jays’ hand and leave one of the veterans without a role. Since Aug. 1, Bassitt has a 2.93 ERA, Scherzer is 3.86 and BerrÃos is 4.96.
The second lefty
Post-season baseball is all about identifying the best match-ups. Starters typically don’t pitch late into games and managers heavily rely on their bullpens to get through tight spots. While the Jays can lean on Hoffman, Seranthony Dominguez, Louis Varland, Braydon Fisher and others from the right side, they don’t have nearly as much depth from the left.
Brendon Little remains the Jays’ primary option, but ideally the Jays would have a second lefty to deploy. That could be Mason Fluharty, who hasn’t pitched in the majors since Aug. 23. It could also be Eric Lauer. The converted starter has appeared in nine games as a reliever but almost all his outings began with a clean inning. The Jays would be well served to test him with some tough situational matchups with men on base over the final stretch to see how he responds.
Securing home-field advantage
In 2015, the Jays lost home-field advantage to the Kansas City Royals by one game. That proved costly in the AL Championship Series when instead of playing a decisive Game 6 at Rogers Centre they travelled to Kauffman Stadium where they lost 4-3. This year, the Jays have a four-game lead over the Detroit Tigers for the AL’s best record before Wednesday’s games and maintaining that advantage could be the key to making a deep run.
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