The Blue Jays possessed one of the lowest-producing lineups in Major League Baseball earlier this year but, since the start of May, there hasn’t been a single club that has performed better.
The remarkable turnaround saved their season. Runs that used to come at a premium have arrived in bunches the last four months. One through nine, the Jays are a pain for opposing pitchers to deal with and it’s why they’re currently in first place.
What’s more surprising than the 180-degree turn is how they managed to do it. Sure, there have been plenty of home runs but the strength of this lineup can be found in its scrappiness. Only a handful of teams swing at more pitches and none make contact at a higher rate.
In an era that has been defined by the three true outcomes — strikeouts, walks and homers — the Jays are an outlier. They consistently put the ball in play and rarely give away an at-bat. “Controlled aggression” has essentially become this team’s calling card.
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“Pitching is so good in today’s game and you have to counteract that a little bit,” Jays manager John Schneider said. “You’re not going to be up there getting walked all the time. You have to really be able to put the ball in play and we have really leaned into that.”
The Jays have the highest on-base percentage in the majors at .338. That would usually be a by-product of plate discipline but the Jays have been doing it the old-fashioned way, by racking up hits. They have four players — Bo Bichette, George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk — among the top 10 in batting average in the American League and as a team they entered Monday first in the majors with a .269 average and 1,315 hits
Patience isn’t their forte. The Jays are averaging 3.77 pitches per plate appearance, which is the fourth-lowest in the majors. Their chase rate of pitches outside the zone is the sixth-highest at 29.2 per cent, while their swing rate of 48.6 per cent on all pitches is seventh.
Despite the free-swinging style, they have performed exceptionally well at putting the bat on the ball. Their swing-and-miss percentage of 21.3 is the lowest in the majors, as are their 966 strikeouts.
One of the keys has been their ability to fight off tough pitches. The Jays are tied for the second-most foul balls-per-strike ratio at 29.5 per cent and their .575 on-base-plus-slugging percentage with two strikes is best in the majors. In a recent game against the New York Yankees, they fouled off 24 of starter Cam Schlittler’s 66 pitches in the first two innings alone.
“That’s what we have done all year,” said Jays starter Kevin Gausman. “We just grind starters out. We make them throw a lot of pitches, we foul off a lot of pitches and just wait for them to eventually make a mistake.”
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The Jays’ contact rate of 79.1 per cent is their highest single-season mark since 2014. It’s not weak contact either: The Jays are fourth in the majors with 1,647 hard-hit balls.
According to FanGraphs’ K%, which normalizes strikeout rates to the league average, the Jays’ rate of 79 is tied for the third-lowest by any team since 2000, trailing only the 2024 San Diego Padres (78) and the 2002 Los Angeles Angels (78).
That might be handy come playoff time when the overall quality of pitching improves. The Jays should be able to apply consistent pressure to opposing teams and force them to make plays. Of course, nothing leads to more success during the post-season than home runs, but the Jays are doing well there, too, with 56 since Aug. 1, tied for third in the majors.
“Our chemistry is excellent right now,” Guerrero said. “We play together, we play hard and we just keep fighting every day to win the game … We try to score every inning to try and get the starter out of a game as soon as possible.”
The Jays have made the playoffs three times since Guerrero and Bichette broke into the big leagues in 2019. They have yet to win a game and a lack of offence has been the obvious cause. In their six losses, they averaged 2.8 runs per game. In all but one, they scored two or fewer.
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If the Jays intend on reversing their fortunes by winning a post-season game for the first time since 2016, they’ll need the bats to show up. That will require continuing to put the ball in play and, with a little bit of luck, having a few leave the yard as well.
Pesky at-bats have become the Jays’ brand of baseball. That has led to much better results during the regular season. We’ll soon find out if it makes a difference in October, too.
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