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The Liberal and Conservative leaders finished the election not quite in a draw, but just two and a half percentage points apart when all the votes were counted.

Except one politician was touted as a massive winner who brought the Liberals back from dead, and the other was branded a massive loser who couldn鈥檛 hold his own seat.

The reality is the new PM and the newish MP are not all that different. They each have certain advantages, and challenges as the 45th Parliament resumes Monday.

Here鈥檚 what to watch.

TONE: Will MPs rally the 45^th Parliament to the greater cause of Canadian unity in the face of economic turmoil putting thousands out of work, and as warnings abound about the need for politicians to dial down the nasty personal political attacks? Or go back to business as usual?聽

PLAYERS:聽Carney has a massive to-do list and only 169 of the 172 votes he needs for a majority to pass significant legislation, not least a critical October federal budget. Even though he鈥檚 got a grip on an executive cabinet willing to promote his economic agenda, he needs parliamentary dance partners. The former Brookfield executive also has to ignore the Instagram 鈥淐arney thirst trap鈥� accounts, and stroke others鈥� bruised egos 鈥� MPs who were dumped or ignored for cabinet jobs in favour of rookies or lesser performers 鈥� to keep them all aligned as he confronts Donald Trump鈥檚 trade threats and goes toe to toe with Poilievre.

MP Poilievre reclaims the role of leader of the Official Opposition and government-in-waiting but has to perform at a convincing and confidence-inspiring level before his grip on leadership is formally tested by a January vote of Conservative party members, after April鈥檚 election loss. Does he pick up where he left off, in attack mode, or will he 鈥� as he鈥檚 promised 鈥� not just oppose but 鈥減ropose鈥� solutions to the economic woes of Canadians?

KINGMAKERS: The Liberals need allies in Parliament. The question is, who?

Yves-Fran莽ois Blanchet, leader of the separatist Bloc Qu茅b茅cois? In the spring, Blanchet foresaw at least a year of parliamentary peace for the Carney government. But in the past week, he said his party would work to advance the cause of separatism in whatever way it could as a Quebec election looms in the next year. He now vows to oppose Carney鈥檚 鈥渃entralizing鈥� moves to advance an 鈥渆nergy superpower鈥� agenda where it includes a pipeline, and accuses Carney of using the 鈥減retext of tariffs and a trade crisis鈥� to justify government support for oil and gas.聽

Don Davies, the interim leader of the New Democrats鈥� shrunken caucus of seven MPs? Hobbled by its diminished parliamentary ranks, lack of money and the pressing need to find a new party leader, the NDP may support Carney on some measures. But the NDP also does not want to align too closely with the Carney Liberals, as it struggles to regain the trust of the blue-collar and working-class voters who voted Liberal or Conservative last spring. Davies says the NDP will keep pushing the Liberals to deal with the affordability concerns of ordinary Canadians.

COMMITTEES: The Green Party’s single MP and the NDP have been shut out due to not having official party status, the BQ promises to wield its weight, and the Conservatives are skilled at blocking the government in parliamentary committees. Here’s where you’ll see real tone shifts, if any.

CAUCUS NELLIES: Jean Chr茅tien once called restive backbenchers 鈥渘ervous Nellies,鈥� and all caucuses have them. The question is whether any dare speak out against their party鈥檚 parliamentary path. Carney鈥檚 got to grapple with a new 鈥渆nvironmental caucus鈥� worried about his retreat from climate action. Other Liberals are nervous about whether progressives are out now that 鈥渂lue Liberals鈥� are in charge. However, most Liberal MPs are grateful for Carney鈥檚 electoral coattails 鈥� he is, for now, more popular than the party, so caucus dissent is not yet a big problem for him.

Poilievre has internal critics because of his campaign’s failures, but still has a grip on elected members and no challenger has emerged from outside Parliament who MPs think could do better. After all, Poilievre led them to 144 seats, and the party鈥檚 best popular vote share in more than three decades.

HOT BUTTONS: Quebec sovereignty as a provincial election approaches with the separatist Parti Quebecois on the rise. The PQ promises another referendum if it wins. Oil and gas and an overheating climate. Jobs, as Canada鈥檚 unemployment rate hits 7.1 per cent. Cost of living and the housing squeeze. Inflation鈥檚 down, but still way over pre-pandemic days, and home ownership remains a distant dream for many young Canadian families. Immigration and the apparent erosion of a Canadian consensus that immigrants are a net positive for Canada.

INSIDERS WITH PULL: Carney鈥檚 closest advisers are all men: Clerk of the Privy Council clerk Michael Sabia and top political aides Marc-Andr茅 Blanchard, David Lametti, Tim Krupa, and Scott Gilmore. Carney, judging by some of his public interactions with female journalists, doesn鈥檛 easily tolerate being challenged by strong women. Worth watching how that plays out for him inside government.

OUTSIDERS WITH CLOUT: Carney buds, pollster Bruce Anderson and Eurasia Group vice-chair Gerry Butts. Energy lobbyists and oil and gas executives. Former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper, who always has clout in the coalition he built. Former NDP candidate and environmentalist Avi Lewis, who may vie for the NDP leadership.

WINNERS: New federal agencies. Exhibit A: the federal government’s major projects office in Calgary. Exhibit B: Build Canada Homes, the agency to act as a federal housing developer to jump-start the affordable housing industry, including on public land. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who cheered on Carney鈥檚 first phase of major federal projects even if it did not promise an oil pipeline. (Carney is prepared to expedite more liquefied natural gas exports, and has opened the door to an oil pipeline if carbon capture and storage technology can be scaled up.)

LOSERS: Federal public servants facing likely cuts (not a simple cap) to their budgets and their ranks. Unions in federally regulated sectors Carney deems essential, such as Canada Post and airlines. The Trudeau climate and environmental policy book. Dreams of a national universal pharmacare program to cover more than just diabetes medication and contraceptives.

REBELS WITH A CAUSE:聽Conservative MP Jamil Jivani has rallied to the cause of young men,聽whom he says governments have failed. How does he channel that anger? Liberal MP Karina Gould, who lost the leadership race to Carney but carried the banner for young progressives in the Liberal party. Will heading the finance committee for Carney’s agenda work for her?

METAPHORS: Hockey, hockey, hockey is Carney鈥檚 favourite. He told caucus in Edmonton, 鈥淧olitics is like hockey. It doesn鈥檛 build character. It reveals it. The character of our government will be revealed by our focus and our delivery.鈥� Game on.

Hell, hell, hell may be Poilievre鈥檚 favourite. He warned again this week the Liberals put Canada in 鈥渉ousing hell.鈥� He鈥檚 said Liberal mismanagement of the opioid crisis has created 鈥渉ell on earth鈥� in Vancouver.

BUZZWORDS: 鈥淏ig鈥� and 鈥渇ast鈥� 鈥� from Liberals when it comes to their much-hyped ambition to build the roads, ports and other projects to get Canadian exports to markets other than the United States. 鈥淧ropose not just oppose” from Conservatives when it comes to their approach to a new political season.

UNKNOWN KNOWNS: We don鈥檛 know how these will play out: The impact of rising unemployment on the government鈥檚 political fortunes. How the debate over Quebec鈥檚 secularism and language laws will unfold in Parliament. (A critical appeal centred on religious freedoms will be heard at the Supreme Court of Canada in the context of a Quebec election year.) How the Bank of Canada steers interest rates, and how people鈥檚 purchasing power and household indebtedness weigh on public confidence in the country鈥檚 economic prospects. But we do know they鈥檙e all factors in the year ahead.