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Despite efforts to reduce immigration, Ottawa is still far from its committed targets, with close to three million non-permanent residents still in the country, hovering at seven per cent of Canada’s population. That’s two percentage points above the level the Liberals would like to reach by the end of 2027.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is already in attack mode two weeks after winning a byelection, calling on the government to scrap the temporary foreign worker program and end all new permits.

When push comes to shove, critics say the federal government’s only option is to get as many temporary residents in Canada out in the next two years. Enforcement will top the agenda as officials refocus on economic immigration to meet certain labour market needs while spots are limited.

“The level of reductions that they have committed to are very, very difficult to achieve with that number of people who are already here,” said Kyle Hyndman, a Vancouver-based immigration lawyer.

“The challenge for the minister and the government right now is to meet those extremely difficult, extremely challenging targets without creating unintended consequences, and doing so in a rational and constitutional way.”

There are already signs that Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government is being pushed in that direction.

The Strong Borders Act, tabled in June, seeks the power to suspend, cancel or stop accepting and processing of immigration applications and documents such as visas and permits due to public interest. It would also increase surveillance capabilities and expand information sharing between government departments and with international partners. Other provisions would restrict access to asylum for people who have previously been in Canada.

Another sign, critics said, is that while the Immigration Department faced the elimination of 3,300 jobs, Ottawa was hiring 1,000 new border officers and investing in equipment like scanners and drones to secure the border, as well as upgrades of immigration detention facilities. 

Gabriela Ramo said immigration lawyers have seen increasing immigration refusals and a significant surge in application processing times since last year, which many believe are further attempts to discourage migrants from coming to Canada or staying in the country.  

“I don’t think that’s happening organically,” said the former chair of the Canadian Bar Association’s immigration section. “It’s happening because one way you reduce the number of people is by making the system slower. If you’re slower, you accept less people, that brings your number down.

“You either invest in enforcement to get people out or you create what we see in the U.S. with this huge population of undocumented workers, which has all sorts of ramifications.”

Another priority for the Carney government is to finetune the economic immigration programs so Canada can still attract needed talent as it pulls back the welcome mat, given it can’t really make much headway with the already limited spots for family reunifications and protected refugees. Critics also expect Diab to continue to focus on permanent residence pathways for those with backgrounds in health care, STEM, skilled trades, agriculture and other in-demand jobs.

“What’s lost in the debate around immigration is of the people that we still want to let in, how do we make sure that those are the right people?” asked Hyndman. “We certainly hope that the minister is preoccupied with that right now.”

But the system requires more than just some minor tweaks. Vancouver immigration lawyer Jonathan Leebosh said the minister must also overhaul the bureaucracy of her department to modernize operations and ensure immigration processes and decisions are clear.

Processing should be streamlined to reduce red tape and duplication, he said. For instance, someone from a country requiring visas looking to extend a work permit shouldn’t have to first apply to the Edmonton processing centre, wait and then apply for a temporary resident visa and send a passport to the Ottawa office to complete the process.

“Modernization” has been the catchword of successive immigration ministers when confronted with criticisms about application backlogs and processing times, and Ottawa has pumped millions of dollars into digitalizing the immigration system over the years. 

Yet, “the dial only ever moves so slightly,” said Leebosh, who speaks on behalf of the Canadian Immigration Lawyers Association.

To better align skilled immigration to the economy, he said Ottawa should reinvigorate what many consider the highly successful provincial immigration program, which allows provinces to select and nominate immigration candidates with skills they need. Under the federal immigration reduction plan, the spots allotted to the program annually has been halved from 110,000 last year to 55,000 in 2025 through 2027, impeding provinces’ ability to fill gaps in local labour market. 

The key, said Leebosh, is to ensure immigration is still working for Canada to get back citizens’ trust and support for immigration, which has been waning in the last two years as high numbers of newcomers have been blamed for the housing crisis, a strained health-care system and suppressing wage increases.

The Liberals have increasingly used the immigration minister’s special powers to issue ad-hoc directives and public policies to circumvent parliamentary and public scrutiny, and Carney must change that culture to allow stronger debates on immigration, experts said.

While it’s expected the opposition will propose some amendments to the Strong Borders Act, experts believe the bill will likely pass in some form.

“The big question is whether the Conservatives will see this as furthering their agenda or they will see it as weakening them because they don’t want to be seen supporting the Liberal government,” said Hyndman. “And that’s a political determination.”

That said, he is quite confident that when it comes to immigration, Canada has yet to reach the end of its swing to the right.