The Maple Leafs are going from one Tkachuk to another.
The Leafs dispatched Brady Tkachuk and the Ottawa Senators in six games in the first round, only to be faced with his older, more experienced and bigger pain-in-the-rear brother, Matthew and the Florida Panthers.
Throw in the NHL’s rat of the decade, Brad Marchand, formerly of the Boston Bruins, and the Maple Leafs will have their work cut out for them.
Here’s how the two teams stack up.
Season Series
The Panthers went 3-1-0 against the Leafs this season. Does it matter? It didn’t matter to the Leafs that Ottawa had swept the season series. Both 海角社区官网and Florida dealt with a great number of injuries for some of those games. As Panthers coach Paul Maurice put it: 鈥淭he regular season doesn’t tell you anything.鈥
Forwards
Maple Leafs: The core players got it done against Ottawa: William Nylander leading the way with three goals, six assists; Auston Matthews (two goals, five assists) and John Tavares (three goals, two assists) helped 海角社区官网lead the post-season with 56.6 per cent success in faceoffs. Matt Knies’s three goals all came from the high-danger zone, leading the league in that category. Scott Laughton’s line can be trusted in all situations. Depth scoring from Max Domi and Max Pacioretty were moments against Ottawa.
Panthers: The likes of Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart, Sam Bennett and Marchand can hurt you physically and on the scoresheet. Marchand (four assists) forechecks his way to the offensive zone. Tkachuk has two high-danger goals this post-season and is a possession-time monster. That the Panthers have two Selke finalists聽鈥 Reinhart and captain Aleksander Barkov聽鈥 tells you there won’t be a lot of room to make plays. The difference against Tampa was Florida’s third line with Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen contributing offence.
Edge: Panthers. Both teams scored 19 times in the first round. Florida did it in one fewer game.
Defence
Leafs coach Craig Berube might have found an edge in his locker room in the presence of Steven Lorentz, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Anthony Stolarz.
Leafs coach Craig Berube might have found an edge in his locker room in the presence of Steven Lorentz, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Anthony Stolarz.
Maple Leafs: The blue line put in a complete effort against Ottawa. Morgan Rielly and Oliver Ekman-Larsson each had two goals. Simon Benoit had a goal and led with 19 hits. Jake McCabe led with 15 blocked shots. And Chris Tanev was so impressive, the Senators would pass rather than risk shooting at him.
Panthers: Seth Jones has been an impressive addition to this year’s Panthers blue line, especially one that will again miss Aaron Ekblad for Game 1 due to a suspension. Gustav Forsling does everything right, leading with 11 blocked shots. Dmitry Kulikov hits everyone in sight. Nate Schmidt plays fewer minutes, but leads the blue line with three goals.
Edge: Maple Leafs. The blue line rarely makes a mistake.
Goaltending
Maple Leafs: Anthony Stolarz learned from the master, Sergei Bobrovsky. He let in a couple of leaky goals against Ottawa to post a .901 save percentage and 2.21 goals-against average. Stolarz鈥檚 midrange save percentage (.913) ranks fifth in the league this post-season, and his even-strength save percentage (.925) ranks fifth among goalies who have played at least four playoff games. Stolarz’s high-danger save percentage (.800) in playoffs ranks just above league average of .794 and the Panthers are good at getting into high-danger areas. Joseph Woll hasn’t gotten into a game yet, but he beat the Panthers in Game 4 in 2023.
Panthers: It’s uncanny but Bobrovsky also has a .901 save percentage and 2.21 GAA. And his high-danger save percentage (.800) is the same as Stolarz’s as well. His mid-range save percentage (.800) lags behind Stolarz. Vitek Vanecek is the backup, and he’s never played in the post-season.
Edge: Panthers. 鈥淧layoff Bob鈥 can steal a series.
The Panthers won three of four meetings against the Leafs in the regular season, outscoring them
Special teams
Maple Leafs: The Leafs won the special teams battle in a series for the first time in long time, and it helped. The Leafs’ power play scored an astonishing 35.3 per cent of the time (six goals in 17 chances), led by two goals each from Tavares and Knies. The Leafs killed 80 per cent of Ottawa’s power play (12 kills in 15 chances). They did allow two short-handed goals, but who’s counting. The Leafs scored once into an empty net, and had two scored against them.
Panthers: Scored four power-play goals in 16 chances (25 per cent) but were second best in the post-season in killing 88.9 per cent of Tampa’s power plays (16 kills in 18 chances). The Panthers scored three times into an empty net.
Edge: Maple Leafs, barely. The five-man power play unit is a thing.
Coaching
Maple Leafs: Craig Berube continued his business-like approach that takes the heat off players. They don’t get too high or too low, the playoffs clich茅-du-jour that always seems to ring true. He seems to know just when to change a line’s look.
Panthers: Maurice is one of the best communicators in the league, quick to get a message to the league or the officials. He can frame an argument well, whether he thinks his team is the underdog, or is getting jobbed by the officials. The Panthers trust him implicitly.
Edge: Tie. Both have been-there, done-that.
X-factor
Maple Leafs: Knies. Concussed by the Panthers early in the 2023 series, he could be out for revenge.
Panthers: Marchand. It almost feels like the Bruins and Panthers are ganging up on the Leafs.
Edge: Marchand. He knows what he can get away with.
Series prediction: The Maple Leafs in seven. Stolarz, the apprentice, becomes the master.
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