The brutal truth about our planet is hard to hear.
鈥淭he challenges currently posed by climate change pale in significance compared to what might come. 鈥 Climate change will threaten financial resilience and longer term prosperity. While there鈥檚 still time to act, the window is finite and it鈥檚 closing.鈥
This quote was not uttered by David Suzuki or put out by Greenpeace or even included in a report by the International Panel on Climate Change.
They鈥檙e words spoken by Prime Minister Mark Carney 鈥 10 years ago when he was governor of the Bank of England.听
It would have been easy for Canadians to follow the federal election campaign over the past month and completely miss the fact that Carney is widely considered to be a world leader on climate action.
鈥淚t’s not that he was just some guy in climate finance. He was the guy in climate finance,鈥 said Matt Price, executive director of Investors for Paris Compliance.听听
Carney brought the concept of climate finance into the mainstream, promoting the idea that the green economy is profitable and carbon emitters will lose money听鈥 at least in the long term. At one point, he even convinced many of the world鈥檚 biggest banks to commit to shifting trillions of dollars of investment away from carbon-emitting industries and into net-zero aligned companies and infrastructure.
But during the campaign, not only was Carney virtually silent on climate, he kiboshed the previous government鈥檚 signature climate policy, the consumer carbon tax.
鈥淗e was very intentional not to spotlight climate during the election. It was an election strategy. Climate itself was not going to be a helpful topic in terms of getting elected,鈥 said Richard Brooks, director of climate finance at the environmental organization Stand.earth. 鈥淣ow we’re postelection and this is where climate is going to come back into the conversation.鈥
The big question now is how Carney will bring his years of climate advocacy as a central banker and businessman to the office of prime minister听鈥 and whether the skills he honed persuading investors will work when trying to convince Albertans.听
Based on a decade of speeches and writings, Carney clearly understands the severity of the climate crisis and the catastrophic outcomes if emissions aren鈥檛 cut dramatically. His solution is market-based: If big companies and banks calculate what climate change will do to their assets and their business, this will put a price on inaction听鈥 and reveal the profits to be made from slowing climate change.听
鈥淭he more we invest with foresight, the less we will regret in hindsight,鈥 Carney said in his seminal in 2015.
His signature achievements to date have been the Net Zero Bankers Alliance (NZBA) and the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ), with great fanfare at the 2021 Glasgow climate. Both were voluntary measures that hundreds of the biggest financial businesses in the world pledged to follow. The theory was that these principles would drive increased profits, attracting new members and creating a 鈥渧irtuous circle鈥 where the profit motive produces benefits for society.
The only problem is that both initiatives have not lived up to their promise.
All six of Canada鈥檚 big banks withdrew from the NZBA after U.S. president, and climate skeptic, Donald Trump was elected again last fall. This week, RBC abandoned its own climate finance goals.听
鈥淪o long as it remains profitable to burn the planet, the banks will burn the planet,鈥 said Price. 鈥淚 think the question really is: Was that the right theory of change? Did we just waste a decade where we should have been regulating as opposed to relying on the goodness of bankers?鈥
This is the definition of a market failure, where investors have not fully comprehended the future losses that climate change will bring, says Adam Scott, executive director of Shift, a charity that advocates for pensions to align their investments with climate action.
The lesson of the past decade is not that the voluntary efforts championed by Carney should be abandoned, but that they should become mandatory, he said. And similarly, Carney鈥檚 approach to climate in the private sector doesn鈥檛 need to change now that he鈥檚 in public office, it just needs to be strengthened.
鈥淭he previous government tried to appease everybody too often,鈥 said Scott. 鈥淎t the heart of climate policy in Canada is a harsh reality that the energy transition requires moving away from fossil fuels. And that reality creates political tension.鈥澨听
The Trudeau government鈥檚 decision to buy and complete the Trans Mountain Pipeline, which cost $34 billion, set back Canada鈥檚 climate progress and did not result in any goodwill from the oil industry or the Albertan government, he said.
鈥淚t takes a thicker skin. It takes somebody who really understands what’s required to be effective in climate policy and takes a longer term view of what they鈥檙e really trying to accomplish,鈥 said Scott.听
Every climate finance expert the Star spoke with was hopeful that Carney would be the right man for the job, considering he was elected to do what is necessary to save Canada鈥檚 economy from ruin.
While his pitch may have been saving the country from Trump, saving the country from climate change amounts to the same thing, said Brooks.听
鈥淭here’s a real opportunity here for him to use the levers of power of government to incentivize investment in things that are going to drive the energy transition in Canada and globally,鈥 he said.听
By fostering stronger ties with Europe, which is far ahead of Canada in their clean economic transition, Carney changes the yardstick by which we measure our progress. Instead of looking to the United States, where fossil fuel production is growing, Canada can measure its progress against the massive amount of renewable energy that鈥檚 being installed in the U.K., France and Germany.
Canada could also take up a leadership role in exporting green technologies to developing countries like India to hasten their transition away from fossil fuels, instead of liquid natural gas, which will prolong it, Brooks said.听
Diversifying trade partners to deprioritize the United States works hand in hand with diversifying exports to deprioritize fossil fuels, he said.
鈥淭hat’s where the energy transition and the question of whether we’re going to be able to tackle this climate crisis is going to be decided.鈥
In order to succeed, Carney is going to have to reckon with a complex set of interlocutors, many of whom听鈥 including the oil sands producers and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith听鈥 are .听
Both the oil and gas CEOs and Smith听sent Carney a list of demands, calling for a rollback on emissions reductions targets and public money for new pipelines.听
鈥淭here’s no common ground with those stakeholders,鈥 said Scott. 鈥淚’m not suggesting that Mark Carney is going to have to write off whole parts of the country. He’s just going to have to stop trying to pretend that this one narrow, tiny, special interest 鈥 specifically the CEOs of fossil fuel companies 鈥 are a stakeholder that can be assuaged or brought up in line with a credible climate strategy.
鈥淲hat he needs to do is find other allies, other partners to work with.鈥
As Carney himself said a decade ago: 鈥淔inancing the decarbonization of the economy is a major opportunity 鈥 it implies a sweeping reallocation of resources and a technological revolution.鈥听
Or, as he said in his election victory speech last week: 鈥淲e will need to think big and act bigger. We will need to do things previously thought impossible at speeds we haven鈥檛 seen in generations.鈥
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