The most obvious benefit of operating with a high payroll in Major League Baseball is the ability to sign high-profile free agents and retain top players. A close second is not being stuck in a bad place when some of those deals go awry.
is what allows the Los Angeles Dodgers to be well above .500 when Freddie Freeman has been limited to 14 games and there are six starting pitchers on the injured list.
The New York Mets’ willingness to spend $332 million has them sitting in first even though Sean Manaea has yet to throw a pitch, and they’re paying outfielders Brandon Nimmo and Starling Marte $41.25 million to not produce.
A hefty budget has helped the Blue Jays, too. They rank fifth with a $252-million payroll and signed Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to the second-largest contract in present-day value in big-league history. Their record would be worse with fewer resources, and yet through much of April it’s clear they also haven’t been getting enough bang for their buck.
It’s early, but the Mets and Dodgers are in possession of a playoff spot. So, too, are the New York Yankees, who rank fourth with a $288-million payroll. Meanwhile, the Jays are 13-13, one of three teams at or under .500 with a top-10 payroll. The other two, the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies, have made the playoffs each of the last three years.
It was a similar situation last year when the Jays were projected to have a $225-million payroll. They later sold off multiple players at the trade deadline en route to a last-place finish. The only teams that spent more and missed the playoffs were the Chicago Cubs and defending champion Texas Rangers.
Andrés Giménez as cleanup hitter was a mirage, and Daulton Varsho’s imminent return isn’t the
The lack of top prospects emerging from the minors is the primary cause of the bloated costs. Instead of filling spots with players on pre-arbitration deals, the Jays have been forced to explore free agency. The other reason is that they are paying premium prices for players who aren’t living up to their contracts.
Jeff Hoffman and Yimi GarcÃa have been a lethal duo at the back end of the bullpen. Despite being added via free agency — where players typically get overpaid — they will combine to earn $15 million, a perfectly reasonable sum for two high-leverage arms. The issue is that the cost of the bullpen almost doubles once Chad Green’s $10.5 million is included.
In the starting rotation, the Jays are paying José BerrÃos, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt nearly $64 million this season. Based on how they have performed the last couple of years, few would argue against that being money well spent.
The problem is that they’re also paying Max Scherzer $15.5 million and he continues to miss time with a thumb injury. The rotation’s combined salary is more than the entire rosters of the Miami Marlins, Chicago White Sox and Athletics. For that price, the Jays get a starting staff ERA of 3.81, which is a bit below the league average of 4.01.
They have MLB’s sixth-worst offence despite spending freely there, too. Andrés Giménez is owed about $100 million through 2029 and has a .610 on-base plus slugging percentage, well below the league benchmark of .701.
The biggest off-season acquisition has been even worse. Anthony Santander signed a five-year contract worth $92.5 million to hit home runs and so far and has two with a .182 average and .538 OPS. Alejandro Kirk responded to a $58-million extension with a .227 average and .570 OPS, but he was at least responsible for the go-ahead double in Friday night’s 4-2 win over the Yankees.
George Springer, who is making $25 million, figured to be the biggest overpay of the bunch, but instead has been the club’s top performer. Springer is batting .329 with a .933 OPS, easily outslugging Guerrero and Bo Bichette, who combine to earn $46 million.Â
Santander is a notoriously slow starter, Guerrero will soon provide more value than he is now, and Bichette isn’t going to finish the year without a homer. The top three are expected to pick it up, but when they do there might not be enough of a supporting cast for it to make a big enough difference.
While Springer should be commended for his strong April, he hasn’t hit this well since 2019 and won’t maintain his current pace. Giménez has upside, and yet poor results at the plate are a continuation of what he had been doing in Cleveland. Kirk has been a below-average hitter since 2022. Not much of this is new.
The front office and coaching staff keep talking about how they expect this team to break out. Most of the fan base remains skeptical because the Jays have featured this brand of baseball for three years and it has yet to work. So it’s fair to wonder, why would this season be any different?
It’s not even May, Â but the initial return on investment hasn’t been great. For this much money, the Jays should have been able to buy a lot more excitement.
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