Daulton Varsho is on his way back, but the Blue Jays are going to need more than his platinum glove to shake them out of what鈥檚 been an especially frustrating five-game losing streak.听
The current slide聽鈥 with a pair of losses last weekend at home to Seattle followed by an embarrassing three-game sweep in Houston, in which the Jays scored just two runs聽鈥 has magnified what鈥檚 been the team鈥檚 biggest problem for going on three seasons: Where have all the home runs gone?
Ross Atkins鈥 鈥減ower is low-hanging fruit鈥 comment (which again, amazingly, is something the Jays general manager actually said out loud, in public and into a microphone last October) is likely to live in infamy for as long as the current front office is in place.听
It came across to this columnist as Atkins suggesting that the interrogator was offering a simple solution to a complex problem. Sure, we peons can see that the Jays haven鈥檛 hit enough home runs the past couple of years, but the big brains in the front office are better suited to delve into the labyrinthine circumstances that led to a last-place finish. We couldn鈥檛 possibly understand.
And yet.
The 74-88 Jays finished 26th of 30 teams in home runs last season, 23rd in runs, 24th in wins.
The four teams that hit fewer homers averaged 63.5 wins and 98.5 losses.
Not coincidentally, six of the top seven teams in home runs last season made the playoffs, the exception being the 89-win Arizona Diamondbacks, who lost a three-way tiebreaker with the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets for the final two spots in the National League.
So, home runs kind of help.
Secondarily, if power is such low-hanging fruit, it shouldn鈥檛 be all that difficult to grab.
But there were the Jays with Andr茅s Gim茅nez in the cleanup spot on opening day, a position he held until they got to Houston despite having hit .169 with no home runs in April to that point. Stunningly, Gim茅nez鈥檚 three home runs聽鈥 all hit in March聽鈥 still lead the team heading into a three-game series against the Yankees that starts Friday night in the Bronx.
Going into Thursday鈥檚 action, 16 players had at least twice as many homers as the Jays鈥 club leader and three had three times as many. The major-league team average for home runs was 26; the Jays have hit 13.
They left some power hanging on the vine this off-season, no doubt.
Eight of the 83 players who went into Thursday with more home runs than the Jays鈥 club leader were free agents, and five signed deals worth less than $8 million (U.S.). Five more were traded in the off-season. And while Kyle Tucker commanded a massive package in return, Nathaniel Lowe, Matt Mervis, Josh Naylor and Jorge Soler did not. Soler is the only one making over $10.5 million.
The fruit was there, hanging more than low enough for the Jays to grab it and not especially expensive. Instead, they traded Spencer Horwitz聽鈥斅the rookie who was second on the team (minimum 83 at-bats) with a .433 slugging percentage聽鈥 for Gimenez鈥檚 great glove, signed one big slugger in Anthony Santander and hoped for a power resurgence from about a half-dozen holdovers.
Santander, a notorious slow starter, has two home runs, half as many as he鈥檇 hit by the end of April last season. The rest of the way, he belted 40; his power will come. Bo Bichette is still looking for his first home run. George Springer and Alejandro Kirk have combined for three.
Now Varsho is on his way back. Some have suggested Gim茅nez was keeping the cleanup spot warm for him, though Springer moved up there Monday and was the only Jay to reach base more than twice in Houston.
But like Gim茅nez聽鈥斅爓ho the Jays seem to believe is back to the hitter he was in his all-star season with Cleveland in 2022 despite no evidence of that since March聽鈥斅 Varsho shouldn’t be hitting in the top half of a contender’s lineup.
When the Jays dealt for him, Varsho was coming off a season with a .745 OPS and 27 home runs for Arizona. In two seasons as a Jay, he has hit .217 with a .686 OPS and 38 home runs in almost 1,000 at-bats.
The defence has been stupendous, the bat below average.
Beloved in the clubhouse, the Jays will be thrilled to see Varsho walk through the door and the sooner the better. He went 1-for-4 with a sacrifice fly in his third game with Triple-A Buffalo on Thursday night as he rehabs from shoulder surgery, and played all nine innings in centre field.
But unless he can unlock a version of himself that we have yet to see in Toronto, he’s not going to give the offence the boost it so badly needs. That has to come from Santander, Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. And while the season isn’t hanging in the balance just yet, it can’t come soon enough.
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