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Guerrero’s new contract doesn’t kick in until next year, and when it does he’ll be in possession of the second largest present-day-value deal in Major League history. For that kind of money, the Jays need a MVP-calibre performance, and so far they aren’t getting it.

Prior to Wednesday night’s 3-1 loss to the Houston Astros, Guerrero ranked a disappointing 74th in the majors with 0.5 wins above replacement, .

There are 183 players with more home runs — yet somehow the power-starved Jays employ only three of them.

Guerrero’s still getting hits. He landed in Houston with an average above .300 and even after going 1-for-12, the 26-year-old is batting a respectable .277. Add in the walks and his .373 on-base percentage is 34th highest in the majors.

The issue is that 73 per cent of those hits have been singles, which is 11 per cent higher than in 2024. The guy who rose to fame because of light tower power, and who later won a home run derby, has just seven extra-base hits and ranks 98th with a .372 slugging percentage.

Jays fans have been watching Guerrero for long enough to know that when he struggles it’s usually because he’s expanding the zone or hitting too many balls on the ground. What’s confusing about Guerrero’s current skid is that he isn’t doing especially poor in either area.

Guerrero’s . His walk percentage has increased from 10.3 to 13.2. He’s hitting 55.4 per cent of batted balls into the air, which is even higher than his MVP-calibre season in 2021 when it was 54.4.

It must be the quality of contact then, right? Nope, not that either. Guerrero’s hard-hit ball percentage of 58.1 is a career high and significantly above the 55.2 he produced in 2021. His average exit velocity of 93.8 mph is the exact same it was last year and good enough for 19th-best in the majors.

One of the only major differences is that Guerrero isn’t pulling the ball as much as he used to. His pull rate of 31.1 per cent is a career low while his 41.9 to centre and 27.0 to right are career highs. In 2021, he pulled 37.9 per cent of batted balls and hit 35.9 to centre.

One logical explanation is that Guerrero’s timing is slightly off. Balls he used to pull into the left-field seats are going to a bigger part of the ballpark. His current spray chart shows five deep fly outs and one double to the middle part of the field that might have led to a different outcome if they had been hit more to the left. If they were, his power numbers would look a lot different.

It’s also possible that Guerrero hasn’t quite gotten over the stress that comes with signing such a historic contract. If that’s the case, he wouldn’t be alone because the only player to have signed for more money than Guerrero is going through the same thing in New York.

Juan Soto is set to earn $265 million more than Guerrero and his debut with the New York Mets hasn’t lived up to expectations. He has two more homers than Guerrero but his OPS is almost identical and he’s batting just .233. Neither guy has been overly impressive.

There’s no reason to panic because Guerrero has been down this road before. Last season, he got off to an even worse start. Through 25 games, Guerrero was batting a woeful .219 with a .674 OPS. From May 1 on, he was one of MLB’s best with a .345 average and 1.002 OPS.

This season, there are only four teams who have scored fewer runs per game than the Jays’ 3.52. There are 82 players who — on their own — have more homers than the trio of Guerrero, Bo Bichette and Anthony Santander have combined to produce. Only the overall.

This anemic-looking offence doesn’t have much of a shot at becoming elite, but a big year from Guerrero would at least get them closer to league average, and with enough pitching that might be enough to sneak into the playoffs. Anything less than Guerrero’s best and the Jays will look like they did in Houston.