The Blue Jays have their sights on a generational free agent for the second straight year. It didn’t work with Shohei OhtaniÌýlast off-season and there aren’t many reasons to believe the situation involvingÌýJuan Soto will be different.
Soto is alone at the top of this year’s free-agent class. He is a four-time all-star who hits for average and power while displaying elite plate discipline. And at 26, he has yet to hit his prime.
A player this good has his pick of suitors and there are expected to be at least five or six teams who will be heavily involved. The Jays are one of them;ÌýÌýthey were the first team to secure an in-person meeting.
Ìývary. The outfielder appears set to make at least $500 million (U.S.) but some insiders suggest the number will exceed $700 million. The deal will span at least 12 years, maybe as many as 15. It all depends on how competitive the bidding war gets.
The Jays have some selling points. Their facilities are as good as any team in baseball, with a renovated Rogers Centre and state-of-the-art player development complex in Florida. They also have a top-10 payroll and are backed by an ownership group that can afford to maintain that financial support.
While Japanese fireballer Roki Sasaki projects to be an ace, he won’t be paid like one when he hits the market in the coming days.
While Japanese fireballer Roki Sasaki projects to be an ace, he won’t be paid like one when he hits the market in the coming days.
But, similar to the free agency of Roki Sasaki, there are more factors working against the Jays. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are eligible to hit free agency next fall, president Mark Shapiro’s contract is up at the end of 2025 and the minor-league system ranks among the worst in MLB. There are no guarantees beyond next season.
The only way the Jays are goingÌýto have a chance is by offering the most money, and by a wide enough margin that it makes a difference. Soto’s agent, Scott Boras, has a reputation of setting aside emotions and steering his clients toward the most lucrative deal.Ìý
But simply matching another bid, or offering a comparable amount, won’t be enough. Soto is considered by many to be the top position player in the sport and there are a slew of big-market teams lining up to secure his services.Ìý
The favourites are the two New York teams. The Yankees might have the inside track after Soto led them to the World Series and saw what achieving success in the Bronx would do for his legacy. The Mets will offer a similar location and the resources of billionaire Steve Cohen.
Boston reportedly is looking to move beyond its stingy ways of the last few off-seasons and bid for Soto. The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco are expected to get involved, too,ÌýÌý
So there will be no discounts. The bidding will be fierce and, even if it’s not, Boras will make it seem like it is with a series of well-timed leaks. There appears to be nothing the super agent enjoys more than playing teams off each other. At the recent general managers meetings, Boras referred to Rogers Communications as a “sports entertainment juggernaut.” He praised the Red Sox for “wanting to secure high-level players” and made a point of saying “playing in New York, for (Soto), was really, really comfortable.”
Boras wants all these teams to think they have a chance because it’s in his client’s best interest. Even if the star slugger doesn’t want to sign with a specific club, there’s no benefit in revealing that now. Better to use that team as leverage.
The Jays have a healthy budget to work with, just not much time left to put it to good use.
The Jays have a healthy budget to work with, just not much time left to put it to good use.
The Jays should know a thing or two about that from last year. They were led to believe Ohtani was interested in signing with them. Details of Ohtani’s visit to the Jays’ player development complex were leaked, seemingly designed to force the Dodgers to up their offer. They soon did and got the player.
So, sure, take the meeting. MLB’s off-season spans more than four months, it’s not as if the Jays are pressed for time. There’s also a benefit to driving up the cost, especially if Soto returns to the AL East.
But unless Ed Rogers is sending Shapiro to the meeting with a blank cheque, that’s where the expectations should end. Anything less than the top offer is going to result in more disappointment. Consider me among the many skeptics.
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