It was just over two years ago that the Washington Nationals reportedly made one last-ditch effort to sign franchise star Juan Soto. The rebuilding club had decided that, with two-and-a-half years of control remaining over their young outfielder, they needed to lock up Soto to a long-term deal or work out a trade while his value was still at its peak.
The preference was to sign him, which led to a . It would have been the largest contract in Major League Baseball history at the time, and yet Soto and his agent Scott Boras didn’t seem to give it much thought before saying no, which later led to a trade.
Some of us in the media thought Soto and Boras were crazy for turning down that much money. Without a guaranteed deal, Soto was one serious injury away from losing everything. But the gamble paid off because Soto is on the verge of making all of it back and a whole lot more.
It’s difficult to predict how high the bidding will go once Soto and his New York Yankees conclude their run to the World Series, but The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal expects Soto to make at least . Former MLB general Jim Bowden recently projected a . Either way, $500 million seems like the floor.
A competitive market will only drive that price higher. Shohei Ohtani had the Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers as suitors as he leveraged a 10-year deal for $700 million (including deferrals). Soto might have something even better — the Yankees and the New York Mets.
There is already pressure on Yankees ownership to re-sign Soto. There will be even more if he leads them to their first World Series title since 2009. The Mets will be tempted to steal attention away from their crosstown rival and they have the richest individual owner in baseball to do it. It’s the perfect environment for a bidding war.
The Jays’ front office prides itself on due diligence. It’s inevitable that GM Ross Atkins will reach out to Boras and the Jays are almost assured of entering the mix, either as a reported contender or as a “mystery team.”
There’s no harm in that. One could even argue it’s beneficial to be used as leverage if it forces the Yankees to pay more. But driving up the price is where the expectations should end because outbidding one of the teams from New York by enough that it actually matters doesn’t seem realistic.
The Jays found out last year what it was like to swing for the fences and strike out in free agency. After Ohtani spurned the Jays offer in favour of Los Angeles, they were left without a backup plan. The same situation can’t be repeated when Soto inevitably chooses to follow suit with a team in New York.
There’s something to be said for managing expectations, internally and externally. As appealing as adding a superstar like Soto might be, the Jays would save its fan base a lot of grief by aiming a tier or two down.
The winter of Boras
Boras might have taken a back seat to Ohtani’s agent, Nez Balelo, last off-season, but he’s set to regain his throne as the king of free agency. Boras also represents starter Corbin Burnes, first baseman Pete Alonso, third baseman Alex Bregman and lefty-hander Blake Snell. And he’s the agent for No. 1 starter Gerrit Cole and slugger Cody Bellinger, who have opt-out clauses.
With control over five of the top 10 players available, this year’s free agency will move at Boras’s pace. It’s not a stretch to think his ideal off-season would be for the Yankees to re-sign Soto, saving funds for the Mets to sign Burnes and Alonso while leaving the Jays and others to bid for Bregman.
Low-hanging fruit
Atkins picked the wrong year to go viral with a quote about power being “low-hanging fruit.” Earlier this month, we wrote about how home runs are crucial to post-season success, and the games since have driven home that point.
In this year’s playoffs entering Friday, teams that out-homered their opponents were 21-7, and 44.7 per cent of all runs had been scored via homers, which is up from 40.7 per cent in the regular season.
Star-studded affair
There is no shortage of star power in this year’s Fall Classic. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, this is the first time there are five former MVPs (Ohtani, Judge, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Giancarlo Stanton) appearing in the same World Series. There were nine previous World Series with four MVPs, the last in 1971.
World Series prediction
The results of this year’s fall classic might depend on the status of Freeman’s injured ankle. If the Dodgers get a productive Freeman, there’s enough depth in their lineup to outlast the Yankees in what should be a high-scoring series. I’m betting on Freeman and giving his team the advantage in the bullpen. Dodgers in six.
To join the conversation set a first and last name in your user profile.
Sign in or register for free to join the Conversation