When the Blue Jays acquired right-hander Shane Bieber at the July 31 trade deadline the most commonly asked question from readers was: What will the starting rotation look like come playoff time?
There were too many variables to make an accurate prediction. Bieber had yet to officially return from Tommy John surgery. Max Scherzer was just a month into his season after missing significant time with a thumb injury.
Then there was Kevin Gausman, who had started to pitch a lot better but still wasn’t that far removed from a slow start to the year. Chris Bassitt and José BerrÃos had moments when they looked like frontline pieces, and other starts that weren’t remotely competitive.
In the month that followed, the projected rotation changed multiple times. Bieber’s first two outings, when he allowed just three runs across 11 1/3 innings, made it seem like he would be a lock to start Game 1 in the post-season. Scherzer’s performance in early August, allowing two runs or fewer in four consecutive starts, made him the favourite for Game 2.
September has seen another adjustment. Bieber has allowed eight runs over his last 11 2/3 innings. Scherzer has given up four runs in each of his last three outings, serving up five homers. Meanwhile, Gausman has emerged as a potential ace by coming through with a 2.47 ERA since the all-star break, including two earned runs over his last 24 innings.
With about two weeks left in the season, there’s a chance these projections will change again. But as of Friday, there’s a strong case to be made that Gausman, Bieber and Scherzer should start in that order. The fourth spot for a divisional series would be between Bassitt and BerrÃos. I’d pick Bassitt, who has allowed three runs or fewer in eight outings since the start of August.
These are good problems to have, and the Jays likely will start revealing their preferred order during the final week of the season. An off-day on Sept. 22 would present an opportunity to shuffle the order and set them up for a wild-card or divisional series.
The Schneider factor
The Jays made a somewhat curious decision Friday by giving gold glove second baseman Andrés Giménez a start at shortstop for the first time this season. There should be little doubt that a defensive whiz such as Giménez can handle the transition, but with Ernie Clement and Isiah Kiner-Falefa both on the roster it’s fair to question why the Jays would bother making the change.
The answer might not have anything to do with that trio. Instead, this could be an opportunity to find other ways to get the red-hot Davis Schneider into the lineup more often. Schneider typically only starts against lefties, but moving Giménez to shortstop and putting Clement at third creates the possibility of starting Schneider vs. righties, too.
The numbers support it. Schneider has 11 homers and an .828 on-base plus slugging percentage that would rank fourth on the Jays if he had enough at-bats to qualify. The unknown is whether Schneider’s stats are inflated because the Jays cherry-picked when to use him, or if he can keep his strong performance going with more playing time.
We might be about to find out while the regular starter at shortstop, Bo Bichette, misses time with a knee injury.
“He has been awesome,” Jays manager John Schneider said of the other Schneider, who has a .914 OPS vs. right-handed pitchers. “He’s kind of forcing our hand a little bit. His bat profile is good, righties and lefties. I know he’s in there predominantly against lefties, but the numbers don’t lie.
“He has been really good and I think probably warrants a bit of a discussion against righties, too.”
The schedule factor
The Jays survived a difficult stretch of 12 games against the Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds, New York Yankees and Houston Astros. They went 6-6, which isn’t great but was enough to maintain a three-game lead over the Yankees atop the AL East.
On paper, it looks like the Jays are out of the woods heading into matchups against the last-place Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays, who are both under .500. The issue is that both teams have a winning record against the Jays, who entered Friday a combined 5-11 against them.
If the Jays win the next two series, they will have all but officially clinched top spot in the division. If they don’t, it will keep the door ajar for the Yankees, who will wrap up their season with winnable matchups against a trio of last-place teams in the Minnesota Twins, Chicago White Sox and those same Orioles.
Quotable
“You’re so hot and so sweaty and then they just dump cold Gatorade on you. It’s the best and worst feeling.” — Gausman about the on-field shower he received after tossing a complete-game shutout against the Astros on Thursday afternoon.
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