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Now, much sooner than expected, the former Mississauga mayor who won the leadership of Ontario’s struggling Liberals a year ago this weekend is girding for an early election against Premier Doug Ford.

“When I got here, I thought ‘I’m experienced, I’m a polished leader, you know? Seventy-eight per cent of Mississauga voted for me,’” says Crombie, a target of Progressive Conservative attack ads.Ìý

“I thought it would be easier. It’s been tough,” adds Crombie, who commands a small caucus of nine MPPs. They hold third place in the 124-seat legislature, where she has yet to run for a seat.Ìý 

“There’s a lot of work to do, and I’m up for it.” 

Several Liberal insiders contacted by the Star agreed the party’s comeback bid faces challenges. And the latest polling from Abacus Data suggests Crombie is “treading water” with voters, says chief executive David Coletto.

In the first poll after she became leader, conducted in late January, the Liberals were at 27 per cent support, four percentage points higher than this month’s Abacus survey.Ìý

“Her leadership alone hasn’t had an effect of closing the gap with Ford,” Coletto says, noting the unpopularity of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his federal Liberals is a drag on the Ontario party.

Hoping to break out, the provincial Liberals recently unveiled their first campaign ad punching back at the premier, with Crombie telling voters they deserve “better.” 

Ford’s Tories are running well ahead of opposition parties even with an ongoing RCMP investigation into the $8.28-billion Greenbelt land swap scandal, 2.5 million Ontarians lacking a family doctor, long waits in overcrowded hospitals, controversial bike lane closures and homeless encampments.Ìý

“Doug Ford has had six years to fix it,” Crombie says.

If Ford calls an early election, it could provide Crombie and the Liberals the opening they are looking for, says Liberal strategist Dan Moulton.

That’s because sending Ontarians to the polls early — instead of waiting for the next scheduled vote in 2026 — is a risk for Ford, Moulton says.

“It’s a gamble. It’s not a great time to be an incumbent government anywhere in the world … it may not be the walk in the park that he had in 2022, post-pandemic. It’s a different environment now. Voters are angry,” he adds.

“There’s opportunity there for Bonnie and the Liberals.”

The latest Abacus poll for the Star two weeks ago suggests 45 per cent of voters believe it’s time for a change in government, but that alone is not enough to flip the balance of power at Queen’s Park.

Ford’s Conservatives enjoy 43 per cent support, the Liberals 23 per cent, the official opposition NDP under Marit Stiles are at 22 per cent and Mike Schreiner’s Greens are at five per cent.Ìý 

Abacus surveyed 997 people from Nov. 15 to 19 using online panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. While opt-in polls cannot be assigned a margin of error, for comparison purposes, a random sample of this size it would be plus or minus 3.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20.Ìý

“I have no illusions about where we stand in the polls,” says Crombie, who will host her first leader’s fundraising dinner Tuesday night at the Metro º£½ÇÉçÇø¹ÙÍøConvention Centre.Ìý

Liberals do not underestimate the premier by any means.Ìý

“This guy is really good. Things seem to break his way,” says one party stalwart, speaking confidentially to discuss internal deliberations.Ìý 

“Bonnie’s got an urgent challenge. She needs to create buzz so she can recruit 25 winning candidates. Right now, that’s really difficult.”

That’s a reference to the number of seats some Liberals believe Crombie will need to gain in an election as early as next spring to leapfrog the New Democrats into second place in the legislature.

So far, recruitment efforts have yielded several notable candidates in ridings the Liberals hope to take back. For example: Vince Gasparro, formerly a senior aide to º£½ÇÉçÇø¹ÙÍømayor John Tory and Prime Minister Paul Martin; hospital executive Lee Fairclough who came close to winning Etobicoke-Lakeshore in 2022; and former deputy º£½ÇÉçÇø¹ÙÍøpolice chief Peter Yuen in Scarborough-Agincourt.

The Liberals saw their support improve dramatically in a September byelection to replace former Ford cabinet minister Todd Smith in Bay of Quinte. They took one third of the ballots to 39 per cent for the victorious Tory, down from 49 per cent under Smith.

But the Liberal party is far from the political powerhouse it was for almost 15 years in government until a crushing 2018 defeat and a disappointing 2022 loss that confirmed there would be no easy rebound.Ìý

While the Liberals received more votes than the New Democrats in the last election, those ballots did not translate into seats because NDP support is concentrated in certain ridings, which helped them win 31.Ìý 

“This party is like a start-up. There is no infrastructure. There is no money,” says another Liberal veteran, maintaining the “draft Crombie” movement that lured her from a comfortable perch running Ontario’s third-largest city underplayed the challenge.Ìý

Instead, Crombie is running Ontario’s third party.Ìý

“I think Bonnie got sold a bill of goods. It’s not an easy job. If they’re in third place one more time, I don’t know what the future is,” adds the veteran Liberal.

Crombie is in the “challenging” position of needing to take seats from the NDP as she moves the Liberals to the centre with promises of an income-tax cut to entice voters who have shifted to the Conservatives, says Coletto.

“She has to build a very difficult coalition,” adds the pollster, who maintains it will be tough for either the Liberals or NDP to break out because they are splitting the anti-Ford vote.

Speaking of the NDP, “there’s seats there that, if you ignore them, you’ll be the next one not to fill the minivan,” warns Flavio Volpe, a senior Liberal staffer at Queen’s Park during the McGuinty years who is now president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association.

Liberals have been dubbed the “minivan” caucus because of their nine MPPs, three fewer than needed for official party status in the legislature which would give them millions in taxpayer funding for staff and operations.

Looking back on her first 12 months as leader and ahead to the biggest fight of her political career, Crombie is candid.Ìý

“I was really comfortable right at the beginning. I had a lot of confidence. And then I realized, ‘maybe I don’t know what I don’t know,” says the one-time Mississauga-Streetsville Liberal MP from 2008 to 2011.Ìý 

After almost a decade wearing the mayor’s chain of office and projecting authority, Crombie has concluded that persona does not translate to the new job, something her advisers also acknowledge.

“This is a much different ballpark ... there’s a lot to learn,” adds Crombie, sitting in the Liberal caucus boardroom with its unglamorous view of a back parking lot at Queen’s Park.

“They’re telling me to be more my authentic self, be more conversational … I just need to be me.”

With an eye to an early election, Crombie is trying to spend more time at the legislature fielding questions from reporters to build her comfort level and profile.

There has been surprise both inside and outside the party that she has not been a more adroit political performer, but some question whether that’s a fair expectation because the leap to the higher stakes of provincial politics is an adjustment.Ìý 

“I think it surprised a lot of Liberals who thought they were getting something different,” says the party veteran who acknowledges Crombie has appeal. “She’s still got that X factor.”

Indeed, Crombie was the strongest performer among her leadership rivals: Liberal MPs Nate Erskine-Smith and Yasir Naqvi and Grit MPP Ted Hsu.

But, unlike the mayors of Toronto, Ottawa or Hamilton, the mayor of Mississauga — despite the city’s size — does not regularly face a phalanx of newspaper, TV, radio and digital reporters.

“When she’s in a scrum at Queen’s Park and questions are flying at her it’s slightly out of her comfort zone. She’s getting better at it,” says one adviser, who points out “there’s not a big press gallery at Mississauga city hall.”

That’s why some at Queen’s Park are surprised the Liberals haven’t urged Crombie to be at the legislature more often.

Since her leadership victory last Dec. 2, she has been spending long days on the road travelling the province to meet voters, speak to community groups, find candidates, raise campaign cash and resuscitate riding associations.  

Earlier this month, Crombie began ramping up efforts to reach voters, sending a major signal she’s returning the party — which drifted left under former premier Kathleen Wynne — back toward the centre.

To that end, Crombie has promised a 22 per cent cut to middle-class income taxes  — similar to what Ford pledged in 2018 but hasn’t delivered. It’s also intended to distance her from Justin Trudeau’s Liberals.

In last May’s Milton byelection, voters repeatedly told Tory canvassers at the doorstep they were looking forward to defeating the federal Liberals. The provincial Grits privately acknowledge that Trudeau’s lack of popularity hurt them.Ìý

That’s one reason Crombie invited Trudeau critics like former federal health minister Jane Philpott and former British Columbia premier Christy Clark to address hundreds of delegates at the party’s London policy convention in September.Ìý 

Looking ahead, her campaign branding emphasizes “Team Bonnie” over the Liberal name and is signalling the election promises to come will be aimed at attracting centrist voters.Ìý 

“We’re focusing on the basics, because when you get the basics right, everything else will fall into place,” says Crombie.Ìý

She is keenly aware Democrats lost the U.S. presidential election because “they didn’t pay enough attention to affordability … to meeting people’s needs.”

“We have nothing to lose. We’re going to be very bold,” Crombie adds in the conference room that is just a floor below and a short walk from the premier’s corner office at the legislature.Ìý

“I feel I am the right person to do this, but it’s a big hill to climb.”