Andrew Phillips is a Toronto-based staff columnist for the Star鈥檚 Opinion page. Reach him via email: aphillips@thestar.ca
Mark Carney didn鈥檛 quite get the majority mandate he was looking for and there鈥檚 a lot of punditry out there about the problems he and the Liberals will have in managing that. It鈥檚 being called an a and the outcome has been labelled (on page one of the Star no less) an 鈥渦neasy victory.鈥
Obviously anything that falls short of the 172 seats needed to rule the House of Commons unchallenged has something uncertain about it. It would have been better for the Liberals and, more importantly, the country if one party had an unambiguous majority to make it as strong as possible in the ongoing battle with Donald Trump.
But the last thing Carney should do is treat his win as something tentative or unsure. He needs to act as if he had a majority. He and his government will never be as popular or powerful as it is now. It鈥檚 great to act with 鈥渉umility,鈥 as Carney promised to do in the wee hours of Tuesday morning, but the times call for quick, decisive action no matter the seat count in the Commons.
through final counting, the Liberals will have 169 seats and what鈥檚 left of the New Democrats will have seven. That鈥檚 enough for a bare majority but there鈥檚 no need for any Trudeau-style ongoing arrangement with the NDP or anyone else. The times call for something completely different 鈥 a bold program to counter the Trump threat.
The good news is that this is what voters clearly want, and in this case good policy will make for good politics. The best way the Liberals can position themselves for the next election is to actually carry out what they said they would do 鈥 speed up resource development, wean the country off its dependence on the United States, work out a new arrangement with Trump, launch a massive program to tackle the housing shortage. Or as Carney put it: 鈥淏uild, baby, build.鈥
The equally good news is that there鈥檚 a lot of overlap between what Carney and the Conservatives promised, at least in direction. There鈥檚 lots of room for cooperation, if both parties are willing to do the right thing for the sake of the country, at least for a while. In these circumstances, voters will punish pointless obstruction more harshly than usual.
Turning a minority into a functional majority won鈥檛 be easy, but Carney will have some big advantages as he tries to pull it off. The opposition parties are all humbled. The NDP is smashed and the Bloc Qu茅b茅cois lost a third of its seats. The Bloc, in fact, is already promising collaboration to keep Parliament going 鈥渇or at least a year鈥 while the government negotiates with Trump.
As for the Conservatives, they increased their seat count and popular vote, but let鈥檚 face it 鈥 compared to where they thought they鈥檇 be as recently as the beginning of the year this is a bitter disappointment. To rub it in, Pierre Poilievre lost his own seat. His party is bound to go through a period of internal finger-pointing about why they鈥檙e still on the outside looking in.
The flip-side of that benefits the Liberals. They don鈥檛 have a majority but they pulled off the biggest turnaround in Canadian political history. Given up for dead in January, they鈥檙e back in power just three months later. Those who wrote them off (and here I sheepishly put up my hand) badly underestimated the survival instinct and sheer wiliness of the 鈥渘atural governing party.鈥
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Just as important, this is a personal victory for Carney much more than a win for the Liberal party. Carney put the bleeding Liberals on his back and carried them to the finish line. The election turned into a referendum on leadership 鈥 who was the best person to stand up to Trump. Carney resoundingly won that vote; as much as he outpaced his party in popularity, Poilievre dragged down the Conservatives.
As a result Carney has an even more 鈥減residential鈥 mandate than Canadian prime ministers usually have. He鈥檚 been confirmed in office because of his own qualities and talents, not the institutional power of the Liberal party, and everyone knows it.
That gives Carney, for a while at least, more power than the election numbers would suggest. He should use it with humility, yes, but also with confidence and determination.
Opinion articles are based on the author鈥檚 interpretations and judgments of facts, data and events. More details
Andrew Phillips is a Toronto-based staff columnist for the
Star鈥檚 Opinion page. Reach him via email: aphillips@thestar.ca
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