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On the Liberals: Trudeau鈥檚 announcement that he鈥檒l step down was completely predictable. Everyone knew he had to go 鈥� aside from him, it seems, until the last minute.

Now the Liberals will spend weeks finding someone to lead them, and I鈥檒l follow the twists and turns because that鈥檚 what people like me do. But let鈥檚 face it: it doesn鈥檛 really matter.

Here鈥檚 what鈥檚 going to happen, almost certainly (the Guild of Columnists requires me to include at least that much of a caveat). The Liberals will pick a new leader by early March. The government will fall by the end of the month, early April tops. An election will follow, likely in May. The Liberals will be creamed. And the new leader will be discarded by the party well before voters sour on Prime Minister Pierre Poilievre toward the end of this decade.

So (almost certainly) the person the Liberals will crown around the first week of March will be the proverbial asterisk, the Kim Campbell or St茅phane Dion of our day. In other words, it hardly matters who wins that dubious honour. If a miracle occurs and the Liberals do find a saviour, I鈥檒l have egg on my face. But it sure doesn鈥檛 look that way now.

What does matter this week? Trump鈥檚 verbal assault on Canada, including his digs about making this country the 51^st state.

There鈥檚 a school of thought that says we shouldn鈥檛 take any of it seriously, that Trump is just 鈥渢rolling鈥� us and 鈥渕aking liberals鈥� heads explode.鈥� After all, we鈥檙e told, he did rule out using military force against Canada; that鈥檚 reassuring, right? I鈥檓 reading

Of course, Canada isn鈥檛 literally going to become the 51^st state. Not even if we wanted to, which we clearly don鈥檛 ( last month found only 13 per cent of Canadians like the idea).

But if Trump doesn鈥檛 change his tune in the next 10 days, it will be the policy of the president of the United States that Canada should be annexed 鈥� if only by 鈥渆conomic force.鈥� I don鈥檛 believe that鈥檚 been the case in more than two centuries, since the War of 1812-14.

In the short run, that will mean tariffs and other measures that will damage our economy. Trump was openly disdainful of this country and its importance to the U.S. (鈥渨e don鈥檛 need their cars 鈥� we don鈥檛 need their lumber鈥�). It鈥檚 clear now that whatever we do on the border won鈥檛 placate the incoming administration; we鈥檙e going to be punished just for being who we are.

That鈥檚 bad enough, but the longer-term implications are worse. Canada has spent decades trying to get closer to the U.S., to tie ourselves every tighter into their economy precisely to avoid being left on the outside. It started long before the free trade agreements of the late 鈥�80s/early 鈥�90s. The Auto Pact of the 1960s secured Ontario鈥檚 manufacturing base for generations to come.

We never stopped. I鈥檝e been looking at photos of the linking Windsor and Detroit, which is set to open in September. It鈥檚 a gorgeous structure and to construct a brand-new physical connection that will be (or was planned to be) the biggest portal for Canada-U. S. trade ever.

Trump will be gone in four years, but he will leave behind a huge question mark over the reliability of Canada鈥檚 integration with the U.S. Investors will wonder whether locating in Canada really does guarantee access to the American market. Who knows how much that will cost us in the future? I fear it will be a lot.

We鈥檙e only starting to take on board the implications of Trump鈥檚 threats. When we look back on this week, they will stand out as the most consequential development.