Before the current campaign, Canada held in this century. Five — including the last two — resulted in a . Minorities have become the norm in our multi-party system.
But now is not the time for another minority. It’s not the time for another government that has to cut deals to stay in office, that’s always one confidence vote away from defeat, whose planning horizon is next month, not the next four years.
Canada faces big challenges and if we’re to have any hope of addressing them seriously it will take a strong government that can look years out — in other words, one with a clear majority in Parliament.
You won’t hear any party leaders ask for that, certainly not if they know what’s good for them. Voters would see that as presumptuous, even arrogant. Especially coming from the Liberals, even though the polls show they’re in majority territory 10 days out from the vote on April 28. Asking for a majority would be the best way not to get one.
Obviously, partisan considerations colour voters’ views on whether a majority is desirable this time. Conservatives would be more enthusiastic if their party was ahead. And New Democrats never like the idea of a majority because it means they can’t squeeze concessions out of whoever’s in power.
But leave aside party for a moment. Canada needs a strong government, first of all to face up to Donald Trump and everything he represents. Trump has the slavish backing of Republican majorities in both houses of Congress; he’s cowed the courts and much of the American media. He’s the most aggressive president, to put it mildly, in decades.
Whoever ends up going to Washington to deal with him on behalf of Canada must be able to say confidently that he speaks for the country. Trump is famous for sniffing out weakness; you can bet he’ll know if the prime minister he’s facing is on thin ice back home.
But it’s not just Trump. If we’ve learned anything from the past few months it’s that this country has to tackle some long-term issues that left us vulnerable to the threat from the south. By now anyone who’s been paying attention knows the basic list: reducing reliance on the U.S.; seeking markets and alliances with more reliable partners; using our resources to better advantage; making the economy more efficient and competitive.
There will be lots of pushback on all this, especially once we get over the immediate shock of the Trump threat. Entrenched interests will reassert themselves. The comfortable oligopolies that dominate so much of Canada’s economy (banking, telecoms, airlines, groceries) will find lots of reasons why nothing should change. No doubt they’ll wrap themselves in the Maple Leaf while they do it.
On the left, many will defend thickets of regulations in the name of the environment, workers’ rights, etc. There are good reasons why Canada has fallen behind its peers. It’s easier to let problems slide than to make enemies by cutting through them. A prime example is how every party has made paying high prices for milk and eggs (a.k.a. ) a sacred no-go area when it comes to negotiating with the Americans.
There are obviously risks that come with a majority. Our version of the parliamentary system gives enormous power to a government that controls the Commons. Strict party discipline means there’s almost never public dissent in their own ranks and opposition parties can’t do much but ask awkward questions.
That opens the door to abuse of power. If a government thinks voters’ desire for a firm hand to deal with the Trump challenge will give it a free hand to bulldoze through anything it wants, it will quickly lose support.
And if a party wins a majority in the country but has very little support in some regions, it will have to be extra careful not to ride roughshod over under-represented areas. More to the point, if the Liberals end up with a majority by running the table in Quebec and Ontario but still do poorly in Alberta, they’d be fools to shortchange its interests.
The bigger risk, though, is another minority government constantly looking over its shoulder. That may be the norm in normal times, but these are decidedly not normal times.
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