We’re getting into the final regular-season “practices” before the real games begin. Here are some thoughts on what lies ahead for the Maple Leafs in both the short and long term.
Chychrun deal shows new era
When the Washington Capitals signed 27-year-old Jakob Chychrun to an eight-year contract extension worth $9 million (U.S.) per season last week, it was an early sign of the NHL’s new world. The increased salary cap next season brings increased expectations from players when it comes to new contracts, and that will impact the Leafs this summer.
The obvious case is Mitch Marner, who is due for a significant bump from $10.9 million to close to, if not equal to, Auston Matthews’ annual salary of $13.25 million.
The big salary-cap increases — it’s projected to rise from $88 million this season to $95.5 million, $104 million and $113.5 million the next three years — bode well for the players when negotiating what percentage of the cap they are worth. Salaries will be higher than ever before, but it’s percentage that really matters.
Wednesday night’s hard-fought win at Scotiabank Arena extended the Leafs’ lead in the Atlantic with seven games to go.
Wednesday night’s hard-fought win at Scotiabank Arena extended the Leafs’ lead in the Atlantic with seven games to go.
Marner took up 13.4 per cent of the Leafs’ cap space in 2019 when he signed his six-year, $81.5-million deal. The equivalent of that on next season’s cap would be $12.79 million. The following year it would be $13.93 million. And in the third season? $15.2 million.
The number Marner signs for, in º£½ÇÉçÇø¹ÙÍøor elsewhere, will be high, but he’ll be worth every penny when you consider the percentage.
Leafs general manager Brad Treliving will also be negotiating in this new era with Matthew Knies and John Tavares.
Knies, who has 26 goals this season, should be a straightforward negotiation as a restricted free agent and end up around $6 million per season.
I wrote a column in December that said a Tavares contract could be three years at $5.25 million per season. With the new cap projections and Tavares’s production — he scored his 36th goal Wednesday — I could see him getting $8 million a season over four years, like Steven Stamkos did in Nashville.
The Leafs who got away
Depth forwards who can score goals and come relatively cheap are more valuable than ever in the cap era. Stefan Noesen and Jared McCann were acquired by former Leafs GM Kyle Dubas in 2021, but combined to play one game in Toronto. They ended up thriving with their new teams.
Noesen was an afterthought when he was acquired from San Jose at the 2021 trade deadline, in the three-team deal that brought Nick Foligno to Toronto. He signed with Carolina that off-season and became a solid depth player, scoring 13 and 14 goals the next two seasons. He’s now in the first year of a three-year, $8.25-million deal with New Jersey and just hit the 20-goal mark for the first time.
Seattle Kraken winger Jared McCann takes a shot against the Oilers on March 27.
Maddy Grassy APMcCann was acquired from Pittsburgh in 2021 and the belief was that he would be picked up in the Seattle expansion draft. But that shouldn’t have been the case.
Expansion draft rules stipulated that in addition to protecting one goaltender, teams could keep 10 players if it was seven forwards and three defencemen, but only eight players if they wanted to keep four defencemen. The Leafs front office chose the latter route, deciding to protect Justin Holl along with Morgan Rielly, Jake Muzzin and T.J. Brodie.
McCann scored 27, 40 and 29 goals in his first three seasons in Seattle, making just $5 million per season. Holl proved to be expendable, and the Leafs let him walk the following off-season.
Historic Leafs goaltending?
The Leafs seem to have their strongest goaltending tandem heading into the playoffs in decades.
Anthony Stolarz has been dominant when healthy. His .920 save percentage is third-best among NHL goalies, and his 2.34 goals-against average through 29 games is fourth. Joseph Woll’s impressive early-season numbers have regressed, but he still boats a respectable .906 save percentage to go with a 2.78 goals-against average through 39 games.Â
Tavares was the NHL’s second star for March after scoring 13 goals for the first time in a calendar month.Â
Tavares was the NHL’s second star for March after scoring 13 goals for the first time in a calendar month.Â
There were two other times when the Leafs had a reliable goaltending duo heading into the playoffs: Bernie Parent and Jacques Plante in 1972, and Johnny Bower and Terry Sawchuk in 1967.
Parent had a 2.57 goals-against average and .915 save percentage heading into the ‘72 post-season, while Plante was at 2.63 and .917. The Leafs were eliminated in five games by the Boston Bruins in the first round.
In the 1966-67 season, Bower had a 2.65 goals-against average with a .925 save percentage, and Sawchuk was at 2.81 and .917.
The Leafs needed both Bower and Sawchuk to win in 1967 — the last time they won the Stanley Cup — and they will need both netminders to make a deep run this post-season.
Fun fact from a former GM
After the Leafs’ three consecutive Stanley Cups from 1962 to 1964, the City of º£½ÇÉçÇø¹ÙÍøpresented them with cufflinks, a tie bar and, believe it or not, a silver cigarette case. They were also given lifetime all-event passes to Maple Leaf Gardens. They soon realized it was a hollow gift: The pass got them into the building, but there was nothing included to ensure they had a seat to watch the event.
Correction — April, 7, 2025
This article has been updated. In the 1972 post-season, the Leafs were eliminated in five games by the Boston Bruins, not the New York Rangers as incorrectly stated in a previous version.
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