The Blue Jays are one-third of the way through the regular season and there have yet to be any signs they are on the verge of becoming a top contender in the American League.
The Jays, who reached the 54-game mark during Tuesday’s 2-0 loss to the Texas Rangers, have been perfectly average with a 26-28 record. Too good to be considered bad, not nearly good enough to be a serious threat to the teams at the top.
Here are nine numbers that defined their first two months (all statistics through Tuesday’s games):
.589 OPS
The Jays thought they added a middle-of-the-order bat with Anthony Santander and instead he has been one of the least productive hitters in the majors. After slugging 44 homers for the Baltimore Orioles last season, the 30-year-old has been limited to six with the Jays. There are only 10 qualified hitters that have a lower on-base-plus-slugging percentage than Santander’s .589 and only five with a lower batting average than his .185. The Jays’ lineup has been underwhelming and Santander’s lack of production is the primary cause.
10 blown saves
The back-end of the bullpen got off to a strong start, but it has been a different story for the last month. Off-season addition Jeff Hoffman entered Wednesday with a 14.63 ERA in May. His top setup man, Yimi Garcia, is on the injured list with a shoulder issue. Only five teams have more blown saves than the Jays, even though their bullpen ranks 12th with a 3.68 ERA.
95.1-m.p.h. exit velocity
When Addison Barger makes contact, he almost always hits the ball hard. If he had enough at-bats to qualify, his average exit velocity of 95.1 miles per hour would rank fourth in the majors behind Oneil Cruz, Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge. Barger isn’t a finished product, and he still needs to remove some swing and miss from his game, but he has the tools. And there has been a lot more good than bad recently as the 25-year-old has an .857 OPS over his last 19 games.
There should be better days ahead for Francis, if he can keep the ball in the park and get
$15.5 million (U.S.)
The Jays handed Max Scherzer a lucrative one-year deal with the hopes he would turn a solid rotation into a great one. It hasn’t come close to working out so far. Scherzer is experiencing the same thumb discomfort that plagued him last year with Texas. All the Jays have to show for the deal are three innings before he was shut down. The timetable for Scherzer’s return isn’t clear, but he figures to be out until at least late June.
4.35 ERA
With Scherzer sidelined, the rotation went from a strength to a weakness. Veterans Chris Bassitt (3.38) and Kevin Gausman (3.68) have performed exceptionally well, but Jose Berrios (4.22) has been inconsistent and Bowden Francis (5.04) hasn’t been very effective. Washington, the Athletics, Baltimore, Miami and Colorado are the only rotations with higher ERAs than Toronto’s 4.35.
7 catcher stealing runs
The pitching numbers would look even worse if not for the catchers. Alejandro Kirk and Tyler Heineman have turned in elite defensive performances. The duo is tied for first in catcher stealing runs, fourth in catcher framing runs and fifth in blocks above average. In other words, they’re among MLB’s best at stealing strikes, avoiding wild pitches and throwing out baserunners.Â
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3.83 runs per game
That’s The Jays are 18-8 when they score four or more runs. So while the pitching staff has underperformed, it’s doing enough to win when the hitters produce. The problem is that the Jays have been limited to three or fewer runs in 28 games. After scoring 4.14 runs per game in 2024, the Jays are down to 3.83 this season, more than only five teams.
46 homers
The lineup continues to suffer from a lack of power. The Jays are 27th in the majors with 46 homers and 24th with a .372 slugging percentage. They were even worse prior to the return of Daulton Varsho who, despite appearing in just 21 games, leads the Jays with eight homers. That’s a pace for 64 over 162 games. That quick-strike offence has been missing elsewhere, even from Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has seven home runs after finishing last year with 30.
-2 baserunner runs
If the Jays aren’t going to hit for power, they need to find other ways to score, and that hasn’t been happening much either. According to Statcast, the Jays rank 26th with -2 baserunner runs. Jays runners have attempted to advance just 31 per cent of the time, which is the second lowest in the majors and well back of the Chicago Cubs, who are first at 41 per cent. The Jays also have the eighth-fewest stolen bases, a number that should improve slightly when Andrès Giménez returns from a quad injury.
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