One doesn’t need to be a professional scout or a baseball insider to get an understanding of Addison Barger’s upside. His talent should be apparent even to those with untrained eyes.
Whether it’s unleashing a 100-m.p.h. throw from the outfield or letting it fly from third to first, there’s a noticeable difference between Barger and most of his peers. The same thinking applies to the batter’s box, where the 25-year-old Blue Jay swings with the type of violent aggression rarely seen from others.
The consistency isn’t there every game, but the skill set remains elite. If Barger puts everything together, he has an opportunity to become a star. If he doesn’t, the 2018 sixth-round pick might become little more than a fringe major-leaguer. It’s the classic case of a player with a high ceiling and low floor, which is something the Jays don’t typically acquire.
Offence breaks out for a season-high nine runs against the Mariners on Sunday.
Lately, there has been a lot more good than bad. Barger will enter Tuesday’s series opener against the Tampa Bay Rays at the Rogers Centre riding a five-game hitting streak. He has eight hits during that span, including four for extra bases, plus four runs, six RBIs and a pair of walks. Outside of George Springer, there might not be a hotter bat on the roster.
There’s no guarantee that Barger will find success across a full month, let alone a season, but it’s obvious what attracted the Jays to him in the first place. He has the potential to make an impact on both sides of the ball, and it’s no coincidence that his hot stretch coincided with a four-game win streak.
While the sample size is far too small to draw any long-term conclusions, his advanced metrics compare favourably with the rest of the league. If he had enough reps to qualify, Barger would rank among the leaders in almost every advanced stat.
The skill set that stands out the most is arm strength. He ranks in the 95th percentile for that category and is tied for fourth in the majors with four outfield assists, even though he has started just eight of the Jays’ 40 games at the position. He hit 99 m.p.h. against the Seattle Mariners last month, and later claimed he was clocked at 107 during an off-season workout.
Only four teams are scoring fewer runs per game than the Jays’ 3.65.
If Barger had thrown that fast from the mound he would be the most powerful pitcher in the game in terms of velocity. The fastest pitch thrown this season was by reliever Aroldis Chapman of the Boston Red Sox, who hit 103.7. A’s closer Mason Miller and Angels reliever Ben Joyce have also touched 103 this season, but no major-leaguer has reached 104.
Barger’s power is just as apparent at the plate. Of the hitters who have put at least 25 balls in play, he ranks third with an average exit velocity of 96.1 m.p.h. The only players who have hit the ball harder are Los Angeles Dodgers phenom Shohei Ohtani (97 m.p.h.) and Pittsburgh Pirates shortstop Oneil Cruz (96.5). Barger is ahead of other big-name sluggers such as Aaron Judge (95.9), Rafael Devers (95.6) and Pete Alonso (94.9). The closest Jay is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (30th, 93).
What’s curious is that despite the impressive advanced analytics, the Jays only recently started giving Barger regular playing time. After not breaking camp with the big-league team, he was promoted on April 15, but until this past week had only started in back-to-back games twice all year.
The bulk of the reps at third base previously went to the light-hitting Ernie Clement because of his gold glove defence. In the outfield, the Jays favoured keeping Springer in right field while using Nathan Lukes, Myles Straw and Alan Roden in left. Barger was used sparingly until an injury to Andrés Giménez pushed Clement to second and opened the door for Barger at third.
Barger has — by far — the most upside of anyone on that list. If he performs well, it’s possible he’ll hang on to the everyday role at third, or at least become the primary starter against right-handed pitchers. If he regresses, then it could be back to the minors. Now that he has the opportunity, his performance will dictate what happens when Giménez returns.
The Jays might be in freefall, but we’ve put together a tremendous show for you regardless
For the season, Barger’s offensive numbers don’t jump off the page. He’s batting .241, and his .712 on-base plus slugging percentage is essentially league average. But he has also gone from someone whose bat wasn’t considered good enough to receive regular playing time to batting third in Sunday’s series finale against the Mariners.
The Jays already know what they have in Clement, Lukes, Straw and Giménez. Who Barger is, or what he will become, is far less certain. For a team desperate to find offensive upside, that alone should be enough to receive regular at-bats.
It might lead to nothing, or it might turn into found gold. Either way, based on his recent play there’s no time like the present to give Barger a long runway, and for the Jays to find out once and for all what type of prospect he is.
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