When Mark Shapiro was asked what the Blue Jays hope to gain from the final eight weeks of a failed season, he had an interesting response: “Getting a grip on our veteran players and what to expect from them next year.”
It was an unusual yet telling answer about his team’s state of affairs. The Jays acquired 13 prospects through trades before the deadline last week, and this is typically the time when a few would get integrated into the majors.
At some point later this year, the young players will arrive. Right-hander Jake Bloss and infielder Will Wagner figure to earn promotions. Outfielder Jonathan Clase might, too. Joey Loperfido is already here. Youth isn’t being ignored, but there are bigger priorities right now.
The Jays want to win as soon as possible and the big-money veterans are the only ones who can make it happen. They’re supposed to be the known commodities, the guys whose numbers can be projected somewhat from one year to the next.Â
The problem is the Jays don’t have any idea what to expect from their stars. Will José BerrÃos perform like he did in 2023 with a 3.65 ERA, or like the guy who has a 6.16 ERA over his last nine starts? Is Kevin Gausman’s 4.42 ERA the new norm or a one-year aberration? How much will Chris Bassitt have left for his age-36 season?
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The uncertainty doesn’t end there. Will George Springer have another first half where he performs as one of the league’s worst hitters? How will Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. handle the pressures of their looming free agency? What about the health of Jordan Romano?Â
There are lots of questions and none of them are good. It’s proof of how daunting it will be to turn around an overpaid roster that sat nine games below .500 heading into Friday night’s game against the Oakland A’s. The Jays figured a lot could go wrong this year and they would still be competitive. Next year, almost everything will have to break right.
These next two months will be about seeing how much some of these veterans have left because, outside of Loperfido, the recently acquired prospects aren’t going to develop fast enough to provide much help in 2025, and right now it’s the only season that matters.
Arrested development
Shapiro didn’t seem too fond of a question posed by yours truly this week asking why developing prospects has become such an issue for his franchise.
“Any evaluation of our job on the amateur front needs to be done contextually, and rarely is done contextually,” Shapiro said. “Where we pick, what our signing bonus pool was, losing picks to sign players, young players traded away. All those things impact depth … I feel really good about the position players that we developed, signed and transitioned to the big leagues. We just need to be better on the pitching side.”
Even when you factor in those things, the front office has performed at a below-average rate. Since 2017, the Jays have averaged the 18th-highest bonus pool and yet they entered this season with a farm system that was ranked 26th by ESPN. They’ve had more money to spend than the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers in all but one of the last five drafts. Both of those teams ranked inside ESPN’s top 10.
They also haven’t made that many trades, at least not ones that sent out top prospects. The Jays paid a lot to get BerrÃos in 2021, they parted with a recent first-round pick to get Matt Chapman in 2022 and dealt Gabriel Moreno to get Daulton Varsho in 2023 before acquiring Jordan Hicks at the deadline. That’s a reasonable number of transactions, but the front office never mortgaged its future by going all in.
And who are these position players? Spencer Horwitz, who has barely been here two months? Addison Barger and Davis Schneider? The suspended Orelvis Martinez? The Jays haven’t developed an impact hitter since Guerrero and Bichette arrived in 2019, although Alejandro Kirk in 2020 deserves a mention.
The Jays’ player development was fine before the pandemic. It’s been a disaster in just about every area since.
Money matters
The one bit of positive news to come out of Shapiro’s scrum was that he does not anticipate a large decline in payroll next season. Without providing specifics, Shapiro conceded that ticket sales have dropped, but that the organization can “buffer” itself from one year to the next because of recent renovations to the Rogers Centre and the arrival of premium seating.
That’s good because the only way the Jays have a shot at contending is by having success in free agency. With limited prospect capital to use in trades, they need a third baseman, designated hitter, catcher, starting pitcher and at least three relievers. For now, the money will continue to flow. But if a lot of tickets go unsold, it might be a different story in 2026.
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