Some Blue Jays thoughts as they get set to begin the final homestand of the regular season, one that will determine whether they wind up with a first-round playoff bye.
The Jays have had the Red Sox’s number this season, winning seven of 10.
The Jays have had the Red Sox’s number this season, winning seven of 10.
The Santander factor
With the Buffalo Bisons鈥 season over at 61-85 after Sunday’s 2-1 loss to the New York Yankees’ top affiliate, the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders, there’s nowhere left for Anthony Santander to play as he rehabs from a shoulder injury suffered in May.聽So it’s likely that we’ll see him at the Rogers Centre this week.
The Yankees have by far a more favourable schedule, playing at home against two last-place division teams in the White Sox and the Orioles.
The Yankees have by far a more favourable schedule, playing at home against two last-place division teams in the White Sox and the Orioles.
The Jays will be running a stay ready camp in Buffalo for players they might need in the post-season and Santander could stay there, but odds are they’ll want to get him into major-league games before deciding if he makes the playoff roster, even as an option off the bench.
The switch-hitting slugger was the Jays’ biggest free-agent acquisition of the off-season聽on a聽five-year, $92.5-million (U.S.) contract, but hit just .179 with six home runs in 50 games before going on the injured list May 30. His .577 OPS is worse than the current major-league low among qualified hitters: Cincinnati’s Ke’Bryan Hayes at .599.
Santander didn’t exactly light the minor leagues on fire in a 10-game rehab stint聽鈥斅batting .219, albeit with an .811 OPS聽鈥 and it’s a lot to ask to step into the lineup of a first-place team that still has work to do and be productive.
He is a notorious slow starter, but he’s also been a poor finisher over his career.
The only months in which the 30-year-old’s career OPS is under .771 are April (.645) and September/October (.663). In five career playoff games with the Orioles over the past two post-seasons, he went 4-for-19 with one home run.
Should the Jays activate Santander, the likeliest players to replace are聽Ty France or Joey Loperfido.
Loperfido has options, which was why he was sent back to the minors in mid-August when George Springer came back from his concussion, despite hitting .358 with a .915 OPS at the time. Since his return, when Bo Bichette was placed on the IL two weeks ago, Loperfido has gone just 3-for-14, albeit with a double and a homer and no strikeouts.
That’s not great, but it’s better than France, who has come back to earth hard after a terrific start after being traded from Minnesota. Since a three-hit game in Cincinnati on Sept. 3, France has two hits, both singles, in 22 at-bats with no walks.
France has played a solid first base when subbing for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but if Santander is back and Bichette returns as just a hitter, unable to field, there won’t be any playing time at first for him the rest of the way.
Loperfido offers the defensive versatility and speed that France does not, and the left-handed bat that the front office loves so much. But he has options; France doesn’t.
Lauer vs. Little
With Brendon Little having pitched in the fifth inning Sunday, the Jays needed a late-inning lefty to protect a three-run lead in the eighth and the call went to Eric Lauer.
Pitching for the fourth time in nine days, the early-season rotation saviour worked a perfect inning against pinch-hitter Jonathan India and two left-handed batters with ruthless efficiency: seven pitches, six strikes.
The 30-year-old Lauer had only made eight relief appearances in seven big-league seasons before this year, but he’s been reliable and effective. And as Little’s innings get more and more nervous, Lauer might wind up being the go-to left-hander while the games get bigger and bigger.
聽Little has an eye-popping 12.1 strikeouts per nine innings and has only allowed two runs in his last nine appearances, but his outings always seem to be an adventure. That’s probably because the first batter he faces has a .384 on-base percentage 鈥斅爋nly six MLB players have a higher mark. Contrast that to Lauer, who has walked the first batter he’s faced only once. First hitters have a .231 on-base against him. The worst qualified hitter in the majors, Atlanta’s Michael Harris II, has an OBP of .262.
Getting the first batter out is huge. It eases pressure and lets the defence exhale. It’s what a reliever is supposed to do. Little has been the Jays’ worst at it, and only Tommy Nance and Braydon Fisher have been better than Lauer. Maybe that alone is enough to make the switch at crunch time.
Jays vs. Red Sox and Rays
The season’s final homestand features three games each against the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays. With a magic number of four to clinch the division and home-field advantage throughout the American League playoffs, the Jays can take care of business themselves with four wins.
They’ve handled the Red Sox well this season, winning seven of 10. Tampa Bay, not so much 鈥 losing seven of 10.
The Red Sox hold the second wild-card spot, but the Cleveland Guardians and Houston Astros sit just a game behind. The Rays are long out of it.
With the tiebreaker over the Yankees, the Jays’ two-game division lead is more like two and a half. So if the Jays manage two wins this week 鈥斅爏ay, just one each against Boston and Tampa Bay despite Toronto’s league-best 50-25 home record 鈥 the Yankees would have to go 5-1 against the Chicago White Sox and Baltimore Orioles to pass them.
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