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The capital is abuzz. Who will lend him a hand?

Last week, the NDP was operating under the assumption that the Bloc would be the Liberals’ dance partner, and that its own MPs could safely vote against the Grits’ budget — one that is expected to include cuts to government programs and public sector jobs.

After losing nearly a third of his caucus this spring, Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet had declared that Canadians — and Quebecers — expected stability. He offered to collaborate with Carney — not without compromising his principles, he said, but with a call for all parties to set aside their profound disagreements and partisan tendencies and work together to address the economic crisis brought on by U.S. President Donald Trump. “I do not see any scenario other than collaboration for period of a bit more than a year,� he said at the time.

But six months later, public opinion surveys suggest voters are more concerned with domestic issues, such as the cost of living and housing affordability, than they are about Trump

Perhaps that’s what led Blanchet to tell Carney’s team earlier this month that the Bloc would vote against the budget. Why would Blanchet want to tie himself to Carney’s promise of an “austerity budget� and his apparent intent to abandon a serious climate policy?

Carney seemed unconcerned. Asked last Sunday if he had reached out to opposition parties, the prime minister seem to suggest they should bend to his will. “If we can (work) with all the provinces, with unions, with the private sector, with innovators, with Canadians, surely the opposition parties can co-operate with us,� he said.

That irked Blanchet. “There will be no negotiation but we want to collaborate — what does that mean?� he told reporters on Monday. “Obey? Become Liberals? Might not happen.�

Without some horse-trading, why would any party choose to prop up Carney? Especially after the last year, when the Bloc and the NDP were painted by the Conservatives as one and the same as the unpopular Justin Trudeau government.

New Democrats remember this well and appear in no rush to help Carney pass a budget that may hurt their voters and affect their standing with labour groups. But with seven MPs, no official party status, little money in the bank and a leadership race underway, heading to the polls again this fall is far from ideal. But if the Bloc won’t prop up the Grits, are New Democrats really ready to give Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre a second chance to try to lead the country?

On Monday, Liberal House Leader Steve MacKinnon struck a more conciliatory tone, and opposition parties signalled a willingness to talk. (Blanchet later privately laid out his demands). But even Poilievre refused to say he would oppose the Grits’ financial document — despite predictions the deficit will be so large that it would normally spur an effort to defeat what the Conservatives would brand as dangerous, imprudent financial management.

It’s worth remembering that it was Poilievre’s Conservatives who lent the Liberals support in June to ram through the controversial Bill C-5 — giving cabinet the power to circumvent Parliament’s other laws — at breakneck speed and with little study.

If the budget is too toxic for the NDP and the Bloc — if, say, the vote comes after Alberta Premier Danielle Smith sees a pipeline on the next mid-November tranche of nation-building project list — Poilievre may conclude another election risks cementing Carney’s hold on power and fast-tracking his own removal as Conservative leader.

He could hope that Gov. Gen. Mary Simon gives him a chance to form government if the Liberals were to lose the budget vote, but how long could a Conservative minority government last?

It’s more likely the Conservatives will vote against the budget but hope it passes anyway. Some Tory MPs suggested to the Star, a few members could find themselves sick that day, or in the washroom during the vote.

Carney’s team could also reignite efforts to court members of the opposition to cross the floor and deliver his majority. Emissaries tried unsuccessfully this spring, but with Carney’s rave reviews from conservative premiers, and a resource agenda that aligns with their priorities, there may now be more willingness to switch sides.

The real fear among opposition MPs is that Carney wants an election campaign. With a weakened opposition, glowing reviews from stakeholders, strong poll numbers, trade talks that haven’t yet resulted in a loss, and an economy heading south, it may not be just opposition MPs who find themselves suddenly ill and indisposed. Maybe a few Liberals will miss the vote, too.