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By the time you read this, we may know more about Robinson鈥檚 background and motivations. But based on past experience, I don鈥檛 expect those details, no matter what they reveal, to change much about the debate over Kirk鈥檚 killing.

If there鈥檚 one thing America has proved again and again, it鈥檚 that no shooting, no matter how deadly or high profile, ever changes much of anything. In the U.S., gun murders are part of the fabric, not just of school life and work life, but of political life too. Kirk himself knew that. He considered gun deaths part of the grand American bargain. “I think it’s worth it,鈥� he said in 2023. 鈥淚 think it’s worth to have a cost of, unfortunately, some gun deaths every single year so that we can have the Second Amendment to protect our other God-given rights.”

Nothing changed in America after a depressed student murdered 32 classmates at Virginia Tech university in 2007. Nothing changed after 26 children were murdered at Sandy Hook Elementary. Nothing changed after Dylann Roof murdered nine Black parishioners at Emanuel Methodist Church. Nothing changed after James Hodgkinson shot up a Congressional baseball practice. Nothing changed after Vance Boelter murdered Minnesota State Rep. Melissa Hortman and her husband this summer.聽

Trump held a parade the day Hortman died. I was there. He didn鈥檛 even mention her name.

So no, I don鈥檛 think Kirk鈥檚 murder will be an inflection point in American history. I don鈥檛 think it will lead to any actual changes, at least not the kind that would result in fewer gun deaths or less violence in America. I was in Milwaukee, at the Republican National Convention, days after Trump himself was shot and nearly killed at a rally in Pennsylvania in the summer of 2024. I remember all the columns and punditry about how everything had changed, how he had changed, how the race had changed, how politics must change.

Nothing changed. Two weeks later, it was barely a story.

I suspect the same will happen with Kirk鈥檚 murder. There is simply no appetite in the American circles that matter for comprehensive gun control, which is the only thing we know would lead to less shootings in America, political or otherwise. So instead of action, we鈥檒l get a few weeks of talk, about tone and anger, and healing divides (which is ironic, because few Americans have ever worked harder to divide America than Kirk) and聽then everything will go back to the way it was.

Even Trump himself is already moving on.

鈥淢r. President, my condolences to you, sir. My condolences on the loss of your friend Charlie Kirk,鈥� a reporter said to him on the White House lawn Friday morning. 鈥淗ow are you holding up over the last day and a half, sir?鈥�

鈥淚 think very good,鈥� Trump replied. 鈥淎nd by the way, right there, you see all the trucks? They鈥檝e just started construction of the new ballroom for the White House, which is something they鈥檝e been trying to get, as you know, for about 150 years. And it鈥檚 gonna be a beauty.鈥�

What will happen, and is, in fact, already underway, is a war not over Kirk鈥檚 death but over his life. Despite many Republican (and in Canada, some Conservative) claims otherwise, no credible left or centrist figure I鈥檝e seen has called Kirk鈥檚 murder anything but tragic. But acknowledging that 鈥� and I do, no one, Kirk, included, deserves to be murdered 鈥� doesn鈥檛 mean whitewashing his life. Kirk spent his adult life fighting for Trump and Trumpism. His organizations paid to bus 鈥減atriots鈥� to Washington on Jan. 6. He once called for a 鈥減atriot鈥� to bail the man who beat Nancy Pelosi鈥檚 husband with a hammer out of jail. 鈥淚f I see a Black pilot,鈥� he once said on a podcast, 鈥淚鈥檓 going to be like, 鈥楤oy, I hope he鈥檚 qualified.’鈥�

People on the right are already trying to turn Kirk into a martyr for free speech, a model for political involvement, a defining American of his day. It鈥檚 not a compliment to say that only on the last of those do I agree.