For years, a metaphysical question has hung over Ottawa: Who, exactly, is Nathaniel Erskine-Smith?
He鈥檚 the 40-year-old three-term backbench Member of Parliament for Beaches鈥擡ast York, yes. But he doesn鈥檛 look or act like any of the other 150-odd Liberal MPs in his caucus. He is one of Canadian politics鈥 . He鈥檚 arguably the only elected Liberal, apart from Trudeau himself, who is willing to pitch novel policy ideas in public. He鈥檚 a maverick, an iconoclast, and he was .
And now, he鈥檚 Canada鈥檚 minister of housing. Despite what naysayers in his party may utter under their breath, Erskine-Smith鈥檚 new job is great news for the country. Clever, able to speak like a human being, and unwilling to be a lemming, Erskine-Smith is exactly the kind of Liberal that the country needs right now.
At the same time, Erskine-Smith鈥檚 appointment is a cruel joke. He arrives in the twilight of the Liberal鈥檚 mandate, amidst historic unpopularity and mounting calls on the prime minister to follow his father鈥檚 footprints in the snow.
Erskine-Smith will be lucky to stay in the job for 10 months. (If Jagmeet Singh鈥檚 perpetually-clueless NDP makes good on their threat to vote against the government in the new year, it could be sooner rather than later.)
鈥淚 understand there鈥檚 going to be a short runway,鈥 Erskine-Smith said Friday outside of Rideau Hall. But, recognizing that the housing crisis is tightly linked to rising homelessness and declining productivity, Erskine-Smith said his goal was 鈥渢o make the biggest difference that I can.鈥
There鈥檚 some dramatic irony to his appointment. 鈥淚t strikes me that we need more honesty in our politics,鈥 Erskine-Smith told housing researcher Carolyn Whitzman on his podcast earlier this month. Eschewing some 鈥渜uick solution,鈥 he said: 鈥淣o politician should stand at the microphone and say 鈥榳e’re going to build the homes we need,鈥 without really overhauling how we do things.鈥
Now, Erskine-Smith is being asked to do some very big things in a very short period of time.
But the upside of Erskine-Smith鈥檚 appointment 鈥 particularly in a muddled cabinet shuffle that is more about electoral math than policy 鈥 is that he鈥檚 already told us what he wants to do.
Last year, the Trudeau government unveiled its Housing Accelerator Fund, a $4 billion project aimed at financing new home construction whilst also encouraging provinces and municipalities to improve zoning bylaws to fit more homes into their cities. The Conservatives, for their part, would rather threaten to withhold tax dollars from cities who don鈥檛 build enough dense housing.
Whitzman was complimentary to the Liberal plan, but wished it was a bit more willing to 鈥渂ully some municipalities,鈥 like the Conservatives propose. Erskine-Smith agreed. 鈥淚鈥檓 okay with the firm carrots and sticks. And we should be firm with municipalities that don’t do their jobs on any restrictive zoning.鈥
In a sit-down interview with former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney 鈥 the man who, twice, turned down an offer to be Trudeau鈥檚 finance minister 鈥 Erskine-Smith made a heretical observation. 鈥淚t’s something like is tied up in mortgages,鈥 he observed, noting that this debt is being added to chase existing goods. 鈥淒o you worry about just how much we have invested as a country in the real estate sector?鈥
Carney replied with a lot of words, but didn鈥檛 answer. Erskine-Smith, with his journalist hat on, pushed an alternative: 鈥淲e want to get new housing built, as opposed to competing with first time home buyers for residential resales.鈥 Carney responded 鈥測es,鈥 but continued to skirt around the fundamental problem: Ottawa is subsidizing too much demand, not enough supply.
Trudeau鈥檚 government has, since it first took office in 2015, incentivized Canadians to acquire more debt to finance the sales of existing assets. Its First-Time Home Buyer Incentive, First Home Savings Account, Home Buyers鈥 Plan, 30-year amortization for mortgages all flooded the housing market with more cash.
This is great politics, because the various incentives and savings schemes help paper over these rising prices and put more funds into the pockets of, among others, the well-to-do Liberal-voting landed gentry. But make no mistake: These housing price subsidies are increasing the inflationary spiral in the real estate sector while doing preciously little to increase the supply. Erskine-Smith is one of the only politicians in Canada 鈥 Liberal or otherwise 鈥 willing to say this.
We have more than just his wonky podcast interviews to go on, as we anticipate what Erskine-Smith might do with his short time in the job. Last year, he mounted a bid to lead the Ontario Liberal Party, finishing in a strong second place. (After Bonnie Crombie鈥檚 lacklustre first year in the job, many may wish they had picked him instead.) In the campaign, Erskine-Smith promised to legalize four-plexes straight across the province, with an eye to permitting six-plexes. He further vowed to tax investors who do not contribute to new construction, crack down on demolishing homes to make way for mansions and to get the government back in the business of building homes.
Erskine-Smith rightly notes that these policies would take years, maybe decades, to fully actualize. But these proposals were some of the most ambitious in the country, and were particularly bold in contrast to the thin gruel being offered by Crombie, Doug Ford, and even Erskine-Smith’s boss.
The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation has estimated that we will need about additional units of housing by 2030. Housing starts, however, . And yet the Parliamentary Budget Officer has found that the Trudeau government鈥檚 $15 billion Affordable Housing Fund will have succeeded in building a paltry by the end of 2027.
The fact that Erskine-Smith has been openly, and publicly, willing to point out his own party鈥檚 shortcomings, and offer an alternative, is fairly exceptional over the near-decade the Liberals have been in power. That candidness has given him a level of cachet in a caucus where backbenchers are generally expected to be seen and not heard. It鈥檚 also made him a subject of disgruntlement in caucus, as some MPs believe he is not a team player. There was certainly some grumbling upon news of his appointment, according to one MP I spoke to.
Those are the complaints of cult members, and should be ignored with vigor. Erskine-Smith鈥檚 appointment comes too late, and from a deeply delusional and moribund government. But the fact that we now have a minister in cabinet who is willing to criticize his own government, and who has no problem slaying sacred cows in order to achieve actual progress on a genuine crisis? That is good news.
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