Justin Ling is an independent investigative journalist based in Montreal and a contributing columnist for the Star. Reach him by email: justinling@proton.me
Another by-election, another massive defeat for the governing Liberals. On Monday night, it was citizens in Cloverdale鈥擫angley City, in Metro Vancouver, who delivered the blow. Two-thirds of voters opted for the Conservative, former MP , just 16 per cent voted Liberal Madison Fleischer, a who spent much of her campaign avoiding questions about .
The Liberal Party has contested four different by-elections this year, and four times voters have said 鈥榥o thank you.鈥 Of the more than 110,000 who went to the polls this year in Toronto, Montreal, Winnipeg and Vancouver, fewer than a quarter voted for the Liberal Party. The Liberals lost two of their safest seats, and got walloped in a bellwether riding. The only reason they haven鈥檛 faced a fifth loss, on the east coast, is because they have so refused to call a by-election there.
You鈥檝e no doubt already read plenty about the calamitous state of the Liberal regime. You don鈥檛 need to be reminded that Monday鈥檚 loss came hours after Justin Trudeau鈥檚 most important minister loudly and publicly quit on him before she could be fired. You very obviously don鈥檛 need me to tell you that Trudeau鈥檚 government is falling apart around him.
And yet the prime minister has so far swatted away calls for his resignation. Multiple members of his caucus, this newspaper, and the majority of the country all think he should go. Even Jean Chretien, who knows a thing or two about sticking around too long as PM, believes Trudeau is 鈥渢oast,鈥 according to a longtime Liberal who heard from him recently. 鈥淲hat the actual f—-鈥 one MP who called me Monday said. 鈥淪hip has sailed,鈥 they continued. 鈥淗e鈥檚 done.鈥
But the prime minister doesn鈥檛 care what they think, or what you think for that matter. It is true that byelections don鈥檛 usually mean that much. But in a minority parliament they can be significant. And the message being sent by the recent byelection votes is clear: Justin, you need to leave.
But who is going to make him? Not Jagmeet Singh鈥檚 NDP. Progressive voters are fleeing the Liberal Party, but they aren鈥檛 embracing Singh. That鈥檚 because his NDP has no policy, no purpose, and no real reason for being. Singh can鈥檛 even take a stand without backing down. He declared Monday that Trudeau 鈥溾 then ducked a question about whether he actually plans to take the government down.
The NDP, at least, still has an official mechanism to remove its leader. Liberals have no such formal power. All they can is agitate. But most of them won’t even do that.
Party MPs have shown no appetite so far for the kind of public fight it would take to topple their boss. Plenty of MPs are furious. Many are griping, some of them to me. But almost none have taken an actual public stand. (One MP did text me yesterday to say that they鈥檝e taken up smoking, so there is that.)
I don’t necessarily blame them. If political bravery were easy, everyone would do it. And, indeed, when cowardice is the baseline, there鈥檚 not always much to gain from standing up.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW
There are plenty of serious, capable politicians who are showing an extraordinary amount of cowardice right now. Like , the would-be consultant finance minister who has now, twice, backed away from accepting a cabinet appointment after watching the prime minister attempt to defenestrate the existing minister 鈥 first, Bill Morneau and, yesterday, Chrystia Freeland.
Carney was, I鈥檓 told, planning on joining the government before the Freeland nastiness. Now he鈥檚 not. If he does plan on entering federal politics, it would be nice to hear from the man himself 鈥 thus far he鈥檚 stayed infuriatingly mum.
With him out of the picture, Trudeau needs to settle on a cabinet with the MPs he鈥檚 got. A planned shuffle for Wednesday seems to be off, and I hear the prime minister鈥檚 office is frantically canvassing MPs to see who wants to join the team. They are, in particular, targeting dissident MPs with offers of cabinet jobs.
He may yet choose some good people. Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, a longtime maverick, is likely to be appointed housing minister, I鈥檓 told. (The Globe & Mail has the same.) That may be enough to pacify some of his MPs, but not all of them. I hear rebel Liberals were meeting on Monday night, plotting their next steps.
Canada is in desperate need for a war cabinet of 鈥渢echnocrats and communicators,鈥 as one MP put it to me, a team appointed regardless of their gender, race, province of origin, or their political utility to the prime minister.
Unfortunately, it seems that Trudeau will, yet again, put his own political longevity ahead of the country. He will fish some rebar out of the ruins of his former cabinet and fashion a new government. This busted mess will look a bit different, but it will function the same. The cabinet isn鈥檛 the issue. The leader is. Nothing will really change until Trudeau goes away.
Opinion articles are based on the author鈥檚 interpretations and judgments of facts, data and events. More details
Justin Ling is an independent investigative journalist based in
Montreal and a contributing columnist for the Star. Reach him by
email:聽hello@justinling.ca
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