SCUNTHORPE, England (AP) 鈥 Tucking into tea and cake in the spring sunshine, Nigel Farage glows with anticipation and big ambitions.
The man who helped drag Britain out of the wants to displace the Conservatives as country鈥檚 main party on the right, challenge left-of-center Labour for power and ultimately reach the prime minister鈥檚 office.
That seems like a longshot for the hard-right politician whose Reform UK party in the House of Commons. But Reform has surged in opinion polls, and sees Thursday’s local elections in England as a pivot point in its quest to transform British politics.
鈥淭his is one of the big hurdles that we have to clear en route to the next general election,鈥 Farage told The Associated Press about the upcoming vote at a cafe in the steel town of Scunthorpe. And when that national election comes, “we intend to completely change British history and win it.鈥
Reform on the rise
Reform got about 14% of the vote in , but polls now suggest its support equals or surpasses that of governing Labour and the opposition Conservatives.
The party blends Farage鈥檚 longstanding political themes 鈥 strong borders, curbing immigration 鈥 with policies reminiscent of administration. Farage says he plans 鈥渁 DOGE for every county,鈥 inspired by Elon Musk鈥檚 controversial .
鈥淲e have a plan,鈥 Farage said. 鈥淵ou bring the auditors in, find out why all this money is being spent on consultants and agency workers, end work from home 鈥 boom, gone, done, over.鈥
The party appeals to many working-class voters who once backed Labour, and to social conservatives long drawn to the Tories. Some Conservatives are already suggesting an electoral pact between the two parties on the right for the next national election, due by 2029.
Farage laughs off the idea, saying that the Conservative Party 鈥渨ill be so small by then it won鈥檛 matter.鈥
The party has momentum, and it showed during Farage’s election walkabout in the Scunthorpe suburb of Ashby with Andrea Jenkyns, Reform鈥檚 candidate for mayor of the Greater Lincolnshire region of east-central England. Reform hopes to win the race and also gain hundreds of local council seats and a House of Commons lawmaker on Thursday.
High school students stopped to ask for selfies, while a passing van driver honked and shouted, 鈥淕o on, Nigel lad!鈥 Farage has a level of recognition most politicians can only dream of. He also has a phalanx of security guards that is strikingly large for a British politician. In the past, he has been doused with a milkshake and pelted with cement on the campaign trail.
Economic insecurity
Farage found support from local businesspeople, including bakery owner Andrea Blow.
鈥淭he last six months has been really hard for small businesses. Everyone鈥檚 feeling the pinch,鈥 Blow said, citing the rising cost of ingredients like chocolate and butter, a hike in payroll taxes for employers imposed by the Labour government and hard times in Scunthorpe, a town trying to shake off decades of post-industrial decline.
Scunthorpe鈥檚 fate is tied to a hulking plant that was long the town鈥檚 main source of jobs and still employs about 3,000 people. It was under threat of closure by its Chinese owner, Jingye Group, until the Labour government stepped in to pay for supplies of raw materials to keep the steel furnaces running. The plant鈥檚 long-term future remains uncertain.
Farage, a lifelong free-marketeer, now advocates nationalizing British Steel on the grounds of protecting jobs and national security. Critics say that鈥檚 evidence his views shift with the political winds.
Rival parties are concerned
The rise of Reform worries both Labour and the Conservatives.
Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, said a strong result for Farage鈥檚 party on Thursday might scare both Labour and the Conservatives into toughening their stance on immigration and other issues to try to 鈥渂ecome Reform-light.鈥
He said that would be a mistake.
鈥淚f we look all around Europe, the idea that you are best off tackling these radical right insurgencies by copying some of their policies and some of their rhetoric isn鈥檛 borne out by reality,鈥 Bale said. 鈥淚f you present people with a copy, they tend to prefer the original.鈥
A divisive politician
Farage is Reform鈥檚 biggest asset, but he also is a divisive figure who has said many migrants come to the U.K. from cultures 鈥渁lien to ours.鈥
Critics say Farage stoked tensions by inaccurately suggesting police were withholding information about a that left three children dead in July. False claims that the attacker was an asylum-seeker sparked days of rioting across England.
Reform has also been dogged by some of the infighting associated with the previous parties Farage led, UKIP and the Brexit Party, though it has sought to become a slicker and more professional organization.
Farage’s status as Trump鈥檚 most prominent U.K. supporter could also have a downside, since polls suggest the US. president is broadly unpopular in Britain.
Farage distances himself from some Trump policies, including trade tariffs and a desire for the U.S. to .
鈥淚鈥檓 a friend of his, and our interests are similar, but they鈥檙e not symmetrical,” he said.
His argument that the U.K.‘s net-zero carbon emission goals are 鈥渓unacy鈥 also could limit Reform鈥檚 appeal to younger voters.
鈥淭hey鈥檙e a party that thrives on division,鈥 said 37-year-old Joe Richards, who plans to vote Labour in Scunthorpe and claimed Reform offers simplistic solutions to complex problems. “I don鈥檛 trust them as far as I can throw them.鈥
But another resident, retiree Tyna Ashworth, 71, said she is 鈥渨illing to give Reform a go.鈥
鈥淎 lot of the politicians, they don鈥檛 listen. ... They couldn鈥檛 live on my pension,” she said. “I鈥檝e worked 50 years for this country, and I鈥檝e worked hard. And I think I deserve to be able to live a decent life.鈥
