OTTAWA鈥擴.S. President Donald Trump, the elephant in the room of the 2025 Canadian election, agreed to meet Prime Minister Mark Carney in the days ahead after calling to congratulate the Canadian leader who squeaked through with a minority win, not the “strong mandate” Carney sought for their looming trade negotiation.
The congratulatory call from Trump came around midday, as Carney was still uncertain聽whether his聽election victory聽would tip into a majority win, with a handful of seats teetering between Liberals and opposition candidates.
By late day, official results confirmed the Liberals remained three seats shy of a majority and are beholden to brokering deals with their political rivals to pass a throne speech, money supply bills for government operations, a late-spring federal budget, and any legislation to implement Carney’s promised tax cut by July 1.
In a minority Parliament with a swamped to-do list, Carney must balance the fraught horse-trading that goes with finding a dance partner in the Commons with leading Canada鈥檚 response to Trump and convening Group of 7 leaders in Alberta for the international summit in June.
The last time Canada hosted Trump and the G7 in Charlevoix, Que., it blew up in everyone鈥檚 face.
Trump, who faces his own blowback on auto tariffs, on Tuesday slightly eased the impact of duties on the auto sector. He eliminated the stacking effect of steel and aluminum tariffs on U.S.-assembled cars and agreed to provide a rebate to manufacturers to offset tariff costs on auto parts 鈥 which Flavio Volpe, head of the Canadian Automotive Parts Manufacturers鈥 Association, dismissed as partial measures.
What remains in place is a May 3 threat of tariffs taking effect on auto parts, which Volpe said 鈥渦nderscores the challenge for Mark Carney鈥 in dealing with the Trump administration. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e learning to say things that sound meaningful that aren鈥檛, that American industry and media then suggest that he鈥檚 showing mercy, and he鈥檚 not.鈥
After dancing at his own victory party in the wee hours of the morning, Carney arrived on Parliament Hill and was 鈥渓ocked in meetings all day,鈥 said a spokesperson.
He took calls from Trump, French President Emmanuel Macron, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and Bloc Qu茅b茅cois Leader Yves-Fran莽ois Blanchet. Carney had been serving as prime minister throughout the campaign but the Liberal leader has not staffed a functioning office, and he must immediately select a cabinet that also needs to staff up across the board.
On top of that, Carney faces the launch of negotiations with Trump as early as next week on what the Liberal leader said throughout the campaign must be a new 鈥渃omprehensive鈥 agreement on trade and security with the U.S.
A Prime Minister鈥檚 Office summary of the Trump-Carney call said only that 鈥渢he leaders agreed on the importance of Canada and the United States working together 鈥 as independent, sovereign nations 鈥 for their mutual betterment. To that end, the leaders agreed to meet in person in the near future.鈥
Trump said little about it, telling reporters there was no update on negotiations with Canada, while White House spokesperson Anna Kelly was quoted Tuesday as saying the Canadian election 鈥渄oes not affect President Trump鈥檚 plan to make Canada America鈥檚 cherished 51st state.鈥
Carney spokesperson Audrey Champoux said no timeline had been decided for the Trump-Carney meeting or where it might take place. Nor were there details on when he would name his new cabinet, reconvene Parliament for a throne speech, bring in a budget or move on other pressing matters.
鈥淚t鈥檚 Day 1, Hour 6,鈥 she said, adding that Carney will take the time to do a proper transition rather than the rushed one he did in mid-March after winning the Liberal leadership race and then plunging into a campaign.
In the immediate aftermath of Monday鈥檚 election, the separatist Bloc Qu茅b茅cois, which lost 11 seats to the Liberals and held only 22 in Quebec, offered a 鈥渢ruce.鈥
Blanchet said he would help Carney govern as if he had a majority for 鈥渁bout a year or more,鈥 and called for an alliance among parties for the federal government to get through the negotiations with the Trump administration on trade and security.
鈥淵ou cannot skate alone on the ice,鈥 said Blanchet. He dismissed notions that the NDP would hold the balance of power rather than the BQ, or that the opposition parties would bring down the government so soon after an election, saying 鈥渢here would be a price to pay for that.鈥
鈥淪o, without there being a major crisis, unless there is a crisis of bad faith, I cannot see any scenario happening other than collaboration for a period of about a year or more.鈥
A senior Liberal strategist, whom the Star agreed not to identify in order to discuss internal matters, had foreseen a possible majority win for Carney of 180 seats or more, but was blunt Tuesday when asked what happened.
鈥淥ntario happened. Atlantic, Quebec and B.C. all came through for us, even more so than we needed and hoped for or expected, and Ontario did the opposite.鈥
Carney鈥檚 Liberals missed snagging the 172 seats needed for a majority mandate. On Tuesday, with 99.9 per cent of the polls reporting, the Liberals were elected or leading in 169 seats to the Conservatives鈥 144, while the Bloc had 22 seats, the NDP seven and the Greens one. The Liberals said there will be automatic recounts in three of the seats they won because of the tight margins.
But the electoral math was not there for more Liberal seat gains, leaving the government with what Poilievre called a 鈥渞azor-thin鈥 minority.
Poilievre nevertheless was one of the victims of his own losing campaign.
In fact, Canadian voters delivered a rebuke to all parties 鈥 denying the Liberals a majority; denying the Conservative leader his own seat, never mind the chance to form a government as his strategists had believed was possible; reducing the Quebec separatist party to a much smaller Bloc; depriving the NDP of official party status; and stripping the Greens down to a lone seat in Parliament.
Voter turnout was 68.6 per cent, the highest level since 1993, and higher than in 2015 when Justin Trudeau led Liberals to a sweep in a 鈥渃hange鈥 election.
But there鈥檚 little doubt voters signalled a desire for change in direction from all parties: Quebec francophone ridings held by the BQ swung Liberal. New Democrat-held ridings swung Conservative and Liberal, with progressive voters not automatically choosing the Liberals.
And there were big surprises for the Liberals in the GTA, where the Conservatives made inroads in York Region and in Brampton, as well as in southern Ontario, that made Carney鈥檚 path to a majority impossible.
Blanchet blamed his party鈥檚 losses in part on the Liberal focus on 鈥渢he threat from the White House and the very clever use of the fear in the population.鈥
He said his offer to the government of co-operation is conditional. That means, he said, no more talk about pipelines through Quebec, or 鈥渙ffensive鈥 discussions about Quebec鈥檚 language and secularism laws 鈥 which the Liberals plan to challenge in the Supreme Court of Canada because of the province鈥檚 use of constitutional override powers.
Blanchet urged Carney to convene all party leaders and attempt to establish terms of a period of nonpartisanship, saying, 鈥 I believe that Canadians and Quebecers expect from the new House of Commons that it be stable and responsible for the entire duration of those negotiations with the U.S.鈥
鈥淎nd that is what the citizens have asked of us. They want us to form a sort of alliance among the parties,鈥 he said.
Champoux, Carney鈥檚 spokesperson, said it is too early to talk of alliances, deals or whether the Liberals could find floor-crossers to join their ranks, but acknowledged nothing has been ruled out on the first day.
Bruised by the national smackdown, the NDP鈥檚 Jagmeet Singh stepped down immediately Monday night before final results confirmed he came third in his own riding.
Poilievre was beaten in his Ottawa-area riding of Carleton by Liberal Bruce Fanjoy, yet seems set to try to hang on as leader.
A senior Conservative strategist, speaking on condition he not be identified in order to speak frankly, said he could not see Poilievre surviving more than a week, once the sting of the defeat sinks in.
A Conservative MP who held on to his seat echoed doubt about whether Poilievre could remain, even though several other Conservatives publicly spoke up in support of him, including former leaders Stephen Harper and Andrew Scheer, who posted on X that Poilievre had run a good campaign.
Harper said Poilievre made 鈥渟ignificant gains, both in seats and popular vote, and brought an entire new generation of Canadians to the Conservative party.鈥
After the party won 41.3 per cent of the popular vote, Scheer said it was the highest vote percentage 鈥渋n modern Conservative history. The most amount of total votes for our party, ever. New seats all over the country. His inspirational leadership has brought more people into the Conservative movement. His continued leadership will ensure we finish the job next time.鈥
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