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There’s significant anxiety among residents about the direction of the city — six in 10 of poll respondents said Toronto’s best days are behind it — “and as a result of that, people look to what they can do in order to change that situation,” said Darrell Bricker, Ipsos global CEO of public affairs. “One of the things that they can do is elect a new mayor.”

But he said alarm bells shouldn’t be ringing for Chow just yet. The portion of people who want new leadership is still below the three-quarters who said it was time for a new prime minister before Justin Trudeau resigned in January. And incumbents facing an electorate in which between 40 and 50 per cent aren’t eager for change stand a good chance of hanging on to their seat. 

“So it’s not that she’s in jeopardy, but her re-election is not certain,” said Bricker, who predicted Chow will have to convince voters in the coming year that she’s addressing the issues the poll showed are their top priorities: the cost of living, housing affordability, crime and homelessness. He said she will also have to expand her support beyond her progressive base to older, more affluent voters outside downtown. The vote will be held Oct. 26, 2026, and while Chow has yet to announce her intentions, sources close to her say she is likely to seek re-election.

Despite the desire for change, the poll found Chow still has decent approval ratings, with 60 per cent of respondents approving of Chow’s performance. Fifteen per cent said they strongly approved, and 45 per cent said they somewhat approved.

But that support appears to be soft. When asked who they would vote for if the election were tomorrow, only 33 per cent said they would cast a ballot for Chow. Roughly the same number said they would support another unnamed candidate, while a quarter said they’d vote for former mayor John Tory.

Bricker said he had expected support to be higher for Tory, who for the moment is considered Chow’s strongest potential competitor. The three-term mayor resigned in February 2023 after the Star revealed he had a relationship with a woman that began while she worked in his office, and which the city integrity commissioner later found he violated ethics rules over. Chow was elected in the June 2023 byelection to replace him, but he’s considering a run to retake the mayoralty. 

“It’s not like there’s a huge momentum behind him coming back — at least that’s not what we’re seeing in the polling,” Bricker said. Given the lack of overwhelming support for either the current or former mayor, “there’s definitely potential there for somebody else to come in” and seize the initiative. 

Other possible candidates who weren’t part of the poll include Beaches—East York councillor Brad Bradford, and runner-up in the 2023 byelection Ana Bailão. The latter recently took a post as head of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s new housing agency, however, which could preclude her running next year.  

Chow’s support was higher among residents who bike to work, have kids, and are between the ages of 18 and 34. About 70 per cent of residents in each of those groups said they approve of the job she’s doing. 

It was lower among those who don’t commute by public transit (55 per cent), and residents with household incomes between $40,000 and $60,000 (47 per cent). 

Geographically, Chow’s numbers were lower in North York, where 56 per cent said they strongly or somewhat approved of her performance. About six in 10 respondents in Scarborough, Etobicoke and York, and º£½ÇÉçÇø¹ÙÍøand East York said she was doing a good job.

The poll of 1,001 residents was conducted online between Aug. 25 and 29. It’s considered accurate to plus or minus 3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.