A sliver of good news for Canada emerged this week from a Trump administration waging economic war on our country.
A warning, though, that hope is visible only through the fog of continued uncertainty.
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, wants to forcibly relocate foreign manufacturing of U.S. imports to America.
Trump has said that includes the Canadian auto, steel, and aluminum sectors, among others.
If achieving his goal means crushing other economies, so be it.
But this week, the Trump administration indicated that the U.S. is open to negotiating new trade deals, after all.
That is a sharp contrast with Trump鈥檚 April 2 鈥淟iberation Day,鈥 when he supercharged America鈥檚 average effective tariff rate on imports, raising it from about two per cent to an estimated 23 per cent.
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Trump justified what is actually a liberation from affordability for Americans just hit with one of the biggest tax increases in history by saying that 鈥淔or decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations far and wide.鈥
Yet Scott Bessent, the U.S. treasury secretary, is reveling in the 75 or so countries now eager to secure new trade deals with the U.S.
Bessent said on Tuesday that if countries with large U.S. trade surpluses 鈥渃ome to the table with solid proposals, I think we can end up with some good deals.鈥
So, what happened to Trump鈥檚 scorched-Earth policy?
Well, there鈥檚 this.
In the days following Trump鈥檚 April 2 Rose Garden presentation of his universal tariffs on almost every economy on Earth, global stock markets tumbled.
U.S. stocks lost about $10 trillion (U.S.) in value in the following few days, putting a sizeable dent in Americans鈥 retirement savings.
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The聽markets recovered some of that lost ground on Wednesday, when Trump, whose stated resolve has never been bankable, abruptly paused his sweeping tariffs on most countries for 90 days. China was not included in the pause.
Trump鈥檚 major reversal came as prominent U.S. CEOs started calling this week for a pause to give U.S. trading partners more time to negotiate new deals.
On Monday, Jamie Dimon, head of JPMorgan Chase, warned that alienating U.S. allies with tariffs 鈥渕ay be disastrous in the long run.鈥
And Bill Ackman, the billionaire New York hedge fund manager and Trump supporter, warned last weekend that the tariffs could bring on a 鈥渟elf-induced economic nuclear winter鈥 for the U.S. economy.
Economists responded to the Rose Garden shocker by downgrading their forecasts for the U.S. economy from modest growth this year to a high risk of tariff-related recession.
A recession could cost Trump鈥檚 Republican Party its narrow control of Congress in midterm elections next year.
So, the White House has pivoted.
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By Monday, six days after the Rose Garden fiasco, the Trump administration was favourably considering tariff-reduction proposals from the European Union, Japan, India, Taiwan, and Israel, among others.
On Tuesday, Bessent said if countries with large U.S. trade surpluses 鈥渃ome to the table with solid proposals, I think we can end up with some good deals.鈥
Both Pierre Poilievre and Mark Carney will take advantage of that opening depending on who leads the Canadian government after the Apr. 28 election. But in quite different ways.
Poilievre would further integrate the Canadian and U.S. economies with a deal that expands cross-border trade.
He would use the 鈥渆conomic benefits鈥 from that to finance a bigger Canadian military budget, which would be pleasing to Trump, he believes.
But Carney, also proposing a military buildup, is distrustful of the U.S. and seeks to gradually decouple the two economies. Not entirely, but in selective sectors.
A decoupling of the U.S. from the world has long appeared to be Trump鈥檚 goal.
But the Trump administration could be amenable to lifting its tariffs on Canada.
U.S. economic growth has slowed, job growth is slumping, and delinquencies in auto payments and
It will, however,聽use continued punishing 25 per cent tariffs on most Canadian goods to make unreasonable demands that could prolong negotiations and tariff harm to Canada.
And there is a caution here. The Trump team is not united.
Bessent, the designated 鈥済ood cop,鈥 is seldom on the same page as Trump trade advisor Peter Navarro, an anti-free trade extremist usually kept in the back room.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik is the messenger of false hope, as chagrined Canadian trade officials have learned.
And Elon Musk, Trump鈥檚 agent in downsizing the U.S. government, doubts the efficacy of the tariff regime. On Monday, Musk posted on X that Navarro 鈥渋s truly a moron.鈥
And each of them can, of course, be overruled by an erratic Trump.
On Wednesday, Bessent said that each U.S. trading partner will require a 鈥渟eparate bespoke negotiation.鈥
If Trump negotiates unique deals with scores of countries, he will have time for little else 鈥 a relief to Greenlanders.
No one would wish for a restoration of global economic stability that depends on Trump not reversing himself again.
But that鈥檚 where we are.
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