Cracks are emerging in the Canadian national unity spurred by threats of U.S. annexation.
Tariffs on Canadian exports to the U.S. by Donald Trump, the U.S. president, have overshadowed damaging tariffs imposed by China on Canadian agricultural products.
Those combined trade disruptions with the world鈥檚 two largest economies are taking their toll on Canadian unity, a problem the next prime minister must address as a first order of business.
For instance, it鈥檚 possible that a sizable export tax on Canadian oil exports to the U.S., principally from Alberta, would be sufficient to force Trump to end his tariff war on Canada.
The U.S. relies on imported Canadian crude for about 20 per cent of its oil consumption. A sudden spike in U.S. oil prices from an export tax of, say, 300 per cent, would be a seismic shock for Americans.
That pain could be made still more severe by cutting off the oil exports altogether, a practice in which the U.S. has often engaged, such as the Biden administration鈥檚 restrictions on U.S. semiconductor exports to China.
But Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is emphatic in opposing any restrictions on the flow of Alberta oil and natural gas to the U.S.
Smith has threatened an 鈥渦nprecedented constitutional crisis鈥 if Ottawa dares meddle with Alberta鈥檚 energy exports.
Trump understands the importance to the U.S. of imported Canadian oil and gas. When Trump announced a 25 per cent tariff on most Canadian and Mexican imports on Feb. 1, he applied only a 10 per cent surtax on Canadian energy imports.
Trump鈥檚 tariffs have garnered most of the headlines. But Chinese tariffs imposed in March on Canadian agricultural products are also a threat to a unified Team Canada on the Prairies, in Atlantic Canada and in B.C.
Ottawa last October imposed a 100 per cent tariff on imported Chinese electric vehicles (EVs), and a 25 per tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum imports.
That was meant to protect the Ontario-based auto sector from a flood of cheap Chinese EVs.
Ottawa was also acting in lockstep with a Biden administration that earlier last year imposed 100 per cent tariffs on imported Chinese EVs and other Chinese goods.
China鈥檚 delayed retaliation to the Canadian tariffs came on March 8 with new tariffs on nearly $4-billion worth of Canadian agricultural imports.
China imposed a 100 per cent tariff on certain Canadian canola products and on peas, and 25 per cent tariffs on selected Canadian fish, seafood and pork products.
On canola products alone, Canadian farmers expect to take a $1-billion hit in lost sales and revenues.
Saskatchewan accounts for about half of that production. And its premier, Scott Moe, has been relentless in demanding that Ottawa revoke its trade sanctions against China.听
Roger Chevraux, an Alberta canola farmer and a director on the board of the Canadian Canola Growers Association, has said that Ottawa 鈥渋s quite willing to let the Canadian farmer be sacrificed like this and take a real hit.鈥
That discontent 鈥 a sense that Central Canada鈥檚 auto industry is favoured over other regional economies聽鈥 is evident in Atlantic Canada and B.C., as well.
Like Moe, B.C. Premier David Eby is a vocal critic of Canada鈥檚 tariffs on Chinese goods and the resulting Chinese retaliation.
Together with Trump鈥檚 tariffs on most Canadian goods, the targeted Chinese tariffs have 鈥渆ffectively cut off鈥 83 per cent of Canada鈥檚 seafood markets worldwide, says the Fisheries Council of Canada.
Eby says the Canadian tariffs on China were imposed to 鈥渃urry favour鈥 with a Biden administration that has come and gone.
China has incentive to lift its Canadian tariffs. China鈥檚 immense aquaculture industry relies on canola meal as feedstock. Canada is the largest external supplier of canola meal to China鈥檚 thousands of coastal fish farms.
Meanwhile, Chinese EV makers have shown no interest in the small Canadian EV market. Instead, they are focused on their enormous home market and Europe and Latin America.
Canada has many justified concerns about China, including its abysmal human rights record and evidence of Chinese interference in Canadian government.
In Canada鈥檚 necessary search for alternative markets to the U.S., Prime Minister Mark Carney said last week that 鈥淭here are partners in Asia with whom we can build deeper ties. But the partners in Asia that share our values don鈥檛 include China.鈥
Fair enough.
But a new PM will have the task of coaxing Alberta into becoming a genuine member of Team Canada and supporting Canadian farmers and fishers by reaching a trade accommodation with China.
As it happens, China now seeks a restoration in Canada-China relations that almost led to a free-trade deal between the two countries in 2018.
That process of normalization could begin with a recognition that the Chinese market holds significant potential for increased Canadian exports.
And that the Canadian tariffs that so annoy China serve no purpose except to inflict hardship on Canadian farmers and fishers.
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