Week 3 of the NFL season is the sweet spot: enough games to see patterns, but still early enough to gain an edge by jumping on under-the-radar performers.
This week’s plays mix breakout opportunities with a few big-name fades. Here are the starts, locks and players to avoid that could swing your fantasy matchup.
Quarterbacks
Start: Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers vs. Jets
Mayfield has quietly carried momentum from last season, throwing multiple touchdowns through two games while completing 60% of his passes. He’s shown continued chemistry with Mike Evans, who remains one of the league’s top playmakers, despite not having scored yet this season, and rookie Emeka Egbuka is a chain-moving, red zone asset. The Jets’ secondary has playmakers, but their pass rush hasn’t looked nearly as dominant without constant pressure, which should give Mayfield time in the pocket. With the Bucs’ offense leaning into a balanced approach, Mayfield has legitimate QB1 upside this week.
Other Locks:
—Daniel Jones vs. Titans
—Michael Penix Jr. vs. Panthers
—Trevor Lawrence vs. Texans
Avoid: Justin Herbert, Chargers vs. Broncos
Herbert is a fantasy mainstay, but this is not the week to expect huge stats. Denver has allowed the third-fewest passing yards through two weeks and has been excellent at eliminating deep chances. The Chargers’ offensive line has struggled with protection, meaning Herbert may be forced into shorter throws and fewer explosive plays. He’s still start-able, but think low-end QB1/high-end QB2 in this matchup — not the elite ceiling you want.
Running backs
Start: Isiah Pacheco at N.Y. Giants
Pacheco has flown a bit under the radar through the first two weeks, but Week 3 gives him the chance for a big game. The Giants have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing RBs so far, including big rushing totals and chunk plays. Pacheco’s role in Kansas City’s offense remains stable — he gets the early down work and adds receiving opportunities. If the Chiefs build a lead, the game script will favor him even more, and he has a good chance to find the end zone. He’s not a flashy pick, but he’s one of the safer RB2/flex plays this week with upside.
Other Locks:
—Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Steelers
—Jordan Mason vs. Bengals
—Javonte Williams vs. Bears
Avoid: Kyren Williams, Rams vs. Eagles
Williams is still the starter, but his grip on lead-back duties is weakening. Blake Corum had his workload grow in Week 2, including red zone carries, and that cuts directly into Williams’ fantasy value. He’s also been inefficient, averaging 3.8 yards per carry, and now faces an Eagles defense that has suffocated opposing RBs. Unless Williams finds the end zone, he’s a strong candidate to disappoint — better left on the bench if you have other options.
Wide receivers
Start: Wan’Dale Robinson, Giants vs. Chiefs
Robinson finally broke out in Week 2, with 10 targets and turning them into eight catches for 142 yards and a score. The Giants are scheming ways to get him the ball — whether in the slot, on designed screens or in motion — making him a most versatile option. Facing Kansas City, the game script could have another pass-heavy approach, which means Robinson should once again see double-digit opportunities. In PPR leagues, he has a safe floor and the potential to put up WR2 numbers.
Other Locks:
—Troy Franklin vs. Chargers
—Elic Ayomanor vs. Colts
—Rome Odunze vs. Cowboys
Avoid: DeAndre Hopkins, Ravens vs. Lions
Hopkins has managed to stay fantasy-relevant with touchdowns, but his usage is far from encouraging. Zay Flowers is clearly Lamar Jackson’s go-to wideout, leaving the rest of the group to fend for themselves. The Lions’ cornerbacks have also been physical and effective in limiting outside receivers. Hopkins could deliver a dud, making him a risky WR3 start this week.
Tight ends
Start: Juwan Johnson, Saints vs. Seahawks
Johnson has emerged as a key part of New Orleans’ red zone offense, already drawing multiple end zone looks this season. His athleticism and ability to stretch the field give Spencer Rattler a mismatch option on third downs as well. Seattle has allowed multiple tight end touchdowns through two weeks, making this a matchup to exploit. If you’re streaming the position, Johnson has legitimate TE1 upside in Week 3.
Other Locks:
—Jake Ferguson vs. Bears
—Tyler Warren vs. Titans
—Tucker Kraft vs. Browns
Avoid: David Njoku, Browns vs. Packers
Njoku’s role has lessened in Cleveland’s passing game with Harold Fannin Jr. earning a growing role. Njoku has failed to top 40 yards in either game this season, and he hasn’t been featured near the end zone. The Packers’ linebackers and safeties have been solid against tight ends, limiting their scoring chances. If he doesn’t find the end zone, Njoku is almost certain to disappoint this week.
___
This column was provided to The Associated Press by RosterWatch, .
To join the conversation set a first and last name in your user profile.
Sign in or register for free to join the Conversation