The Blue Jays have been firmly entrenched in a wild-card spot for nearly a month and as the quality of play increased, so too have expectations of what this team is capable of doing.
After finishing last in the American League East a year ago, just making the playoffs in 2025 seemed ambitious. But in the big picture, the Jays have been there, done that. For this era to be considered a success, getting there isn’t enough. They need to go on a deep run.
That’s something this group hasn’t been able to accomplish so far. The Jays have been eliminated in the first round of the post-season in two of the last three years. They haven’t advanced to a division series in nearly a decade, and their best shot at getting there this season is skipping the wild-card series entirely with a division title and the corresponding bye.
Standing in their way are the rival New York Yankees, who arrive in 海角社区官网on Monday for the start of a crucial four-game series at the Rogers Centre. The Jays have been chipping away at the division lead for several weeks and this set presents a prime opportunity to inch even closer.
It wasn’t that long ago that finishing first seemed little more than a fantasy. As recently as May 28, the Jays were eight games back of the Yankees, who were on cruise control in what appeared to be a surprisingly weak division. Since then, the Jays have been red hot while the Yankees started to scuffle, which has narrowed the gap significantly.
The Jays trail the Yankees by three games. A series sweep would allow them to swap spots, while taking three of four would bring the Jays within one. Alternatively, losing this series would kill a lot of the momentum they have been building. That makes this matchup appointment viewing. The stakes are incredibly high.
How the Jays stack up
On paper, the Yankees still have the better team. Their lineup ranks fourth in the majors with 5.08 runs per game, while their pitching staff sits tied for third with a 3.46 ERA. The Jays trail in both areas with a 13th-ranked offence that is averaging 4.40 runs, with a 4.20 ERA that sits 24th.
However, those numbers are deceiving. These clubs have been trending in opposite directions for the last month. While the Yankees’ pitching has remained elite in June with a 3.14 ERA, their offence has dipped to 4.23 runs per game. The Jays are averaging five runs, somewhat offsetting the continued struggles of a pitching staff that has a 4.60 ERA.
That recent performance partially explains why the Jays have gone 15-10 in June while the Yankees have been treading water at 13-13. With four games against each other this week and another three shortly after the all-star break, there is ample opportunity for the Jays to further narrow the gap or leapfrog the Yankees entirely.
Not the same ol’ Yankees
Even though New York has been perfectly average of late, that doesn’t mean this will be easy. The Bronx Bombers might not have their usual high-octane offence following the departure of star slugger Juan Soto, but they can still pitch and their top healthy arms will be available against Toronto.
High-profile signees Carlos Rodon (9-5, 2.92) and Max Fried (10-2, 1.92) will start the first two games. After that, they will go with Will Warren (5-4, 4.37) and Clarke Schmidt (4-4, 3.09). The Jays are expected to counter with Max Scherzer (0-0, 5.63), Kevin Gausman (6-6, 4.21) Jos茅 Berr铆os (4-3, 3.26) and Chris Bassitt (7-4, 4.29).
Offensively, the Yankees might be struggling, but they still have some heavy hitters. Aaron Judge is in the midst of another MVP-calibre season with 28 homers and an MLB-leading 1.180 on-base plus slugging percentage. Trent Grisham, Jazz Chisholm and Cody Bellinger are enjoying good seasons, but there isn’t much depth to the bottom half of the lineup.
While the Jays don’t have quite as much star power, they have a formidable heart of the order with the rise of Addison Barger and the resurgence of Alejandro Kirk to complement Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. Unlike the Yankees, there have also been plenty of surprise contributions from hitters lower in the order.
Getting it done
The formula for success is simple. The Jays’ hot bats need to produce against elite pitching, while their own staff must contain Judge and force someone else to do damage. Properly executing that game plan will be the challenge.
The playoffs are still three months away, and yet this Canada Day matchup will have the feel of October. It might not be a must-win series, but if the Jays are serious about making a run at the division, taking care of the defending AL champs would be the way to do it.
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