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That鈥檚 when, as first reported by the Star, the Liberals fired their candidate in the Progressive Conservative stronghold of Parry Sound-Muskoka over his baseless theory on the causes of homosexuality 鈥� and dramatically improved the odds for longtime Green hopeful Matt Richter, an elementary school teacher.

鈥淲hen the Liberals suddenly didn鈥檛 have a candidate, we thought, 鈥楾he winds are in our sails and the luck you sometimes need in politics has been handed to us. Now we have to seize the moment,鈥欌�� Schreiner recalled Wednesday of the all-out effort in the riding.

鈥淲e had the funding and the people power we needed to win.鈥�

There were already high hopes for a breakthrough after veteran MPP Norm Miller, the son of former premier Frank Miller, announced last November he would not be running again.

But victory was not in the cards for the Greens, despite many visits by Schreiner, help from volunteers across the province who drove in by the carload, and spending close to the legal limit of $116,000 set by Elections Ontario for a campaign in the sprawling district three times the size of Prince Edward Island.

In his fifth attempt at winning the riding and after years of involvement as a community activist, Richter fell 2,115 votes short of defeating Progressive Conservative Graydon Smith, the mayor of Bracebridge, who will soon be sworn in to Premier Doug Ford鈥檚 caucus of 83 MPPs.

鈥淐learly there were things that fell into place that helped us get to the next level. At the same time, it is bittersweet we got that close,鈥� said Richter, who doubled his share of the vote from 2018 to 40 per cent without a Liberal in the race this time.

And Schreiner 鈥� who was first elected in Guelph four years ago in a lucky break of his own when Liberal cabinet minister Liz Sandals retired and the Grit vote collapsed provincewide in the Ford sweep 鈥� will remain an army of one in the legislature.

The experiences are textbook examples of the obstacles for smaller parties like the Greens in their quest for electoral success, said political scientist Rob Leone, a former Conservative MPP for Cambridge.

鈥淚t relies on the stars aligning to make it happen,鈥� added Leone, a principal at Earnescliffe Strategies in 海角社区官网and associate professor at Niagara University in Lewiston, N.Y.

鈥淭he Greens can mount a full campaign, but how do they replicate that in all 124 ridings? That鈥檚 the challenge that they face.鈥�

This year, the Greens focused on Guelph, Parry Sound-Muskoka and University-Rosedale in downtown Toronto, where former Ontario environmental commissioner and Green deputy leader Dianne Saxe put her name on the ballot and placed fourth with just under 16 per cent support.

The biggest payoff was in Guelph, where Schreiner won by a massive margin of 18,603 votes over his closest rival, a Conservative, earning almost 55 per cent of the ballots cast.

That convincing result gives the Greens bragging rights beyond Guelph for the next campaign in 2026, said Leone.

鈥淢ike鈥檚 vote increased exponentially as a consequence of being an effective MPP,鈥� Leone added. 鈥淭hat also speaks to the need and desire to build up that credibility, that once you elect a Green MPP they can be strong advocates for their community.鈥�

Richter said that is the path he has been on, with heavy community involvement over the years, and credited Schreiner鈥檚 solid performance in the TVO leaders鈥� debate with making his job of convincing voters easier.

The Conservatives, meanwhile, performed a bit of head fake late in the campaign, sending Ford to the riding on the Sunday before last Thursday鈥檚 election.

鈥淲e knew Graydon was going to win, but we wanted to give the impression that we were worried about the Greens,鈥� said one Tory insider, speaking confidentially in order to discuss internal strategy.

鈥淲e wanted to see the Green vote go up in other ridings because we knew that would help us win seats at the expense of the Liberals and the NDP,鈥� said the source.

Schreiner maintained the Tories were nervous because of negative ads in the final days of the campaign that suggested Greens would make it harder for homes to use natural gas heating.

鈥淥ne of the lessons learned is we have to respond to negative attack ads faster and in a more forceful way,鈥� he said.

Looking ahead to the 2026 vote, Schreiner said Green fortunes could pick up if the Ford government falters over challenges like skyrocketing inflation, economic growth and climate change that could bring more severe weather events to the province.

鈥淗opefully, the next election will be one where change is in the air.鈥�

With files from Robert Benzie