The GTA suburbs stayed blue.
And in a huge blow for Bonnie Crombie, the Liberal leader and former mayor of Mississauga couldn鈥檛 win her hand-picked riding of Mississauga East鈥擟ooksville.
Crombie was supposed to help bring some of the 905 vote, and in particular the vote in Mississauga to her Liberal side, but she didn鈥檛 have the impact some expected, where the majority of Conservative MPPs managed to hold on to their seats as Ontarians voted Thursday 鈥 despite the high-profile controversies that followed the Ford government last term.
This election, all eyes were on Crombie, and her chosen seat of Mississauga East鈥擟ooksville, where she faced off with Silvia Gualtieri, an insurance executive and mother-in-law of Brampton Mayor Patrick Brown, who was Ford鈥檚 predecessor as party leader. Gualtieri beat Crombie by 1,227 votes.听
鈥淚 know tonight isn’t exactly the result we’re looking for, but you should be very, very proud of what we did tonight,鈥 said Crombie. 鈥淭his is a building block for us. It is a momentum that we can continue to push forward and to grow.” 鈥
Despite Crombie鈥檚 reign as a three-time mayor in Mississauga, she was unable to sway other Mississauga ridings to turn red 鈥 even though some races remained close until the end, in particular in Mississauga-Erin Mills between PC Sheref Sabawy and Liberal candidate Qasir Dar, who were separated by only 20 votes at press time with all polls reporting. A recount will be held. Also, there are mail-in ballots that still need to be counted that could affect the outcome of tight races.听
Historically, the GTA 905 ridings usually help determine the election 鈥 and their allegiances can change. With 30 ridings and several newcomer populations, this is where parties expect and hope to make gains, but on Thursday night, the Conservatives managed to keep their support.
鈥淏oth federally and provincially, the ring around Toronto, the 905 seats in Mississauga and Brampton, they really are almost always the tale of the tape and the most hotly contested seats. The party that wins the majority of those seats tends to be the party that forms government,鈥 said Scott Reid, political analyst.
Reid also marvelled that Ford and the Conservatives are strategically built around success in the 905, targeting the area with issues like building highways and middle class tax relief.
鈥淚t feels like it’s literally a laboratory-distilled political operation for the 905 and obviously that’s paying dividends,鈥 said Reid.
In some ways it was a case of history repeating itself, as the Conservatives managed a near clean sweep of the 905/GTA ridings in 2022, taking 29 of the 30 ridings in Peel, York and Durham regions. The lone holdout last time was the NDP鈥檚 Jennifer French in Oshawa. This time the Conservatives took 28 ridings.听
What happened this time?
This time around, Mississauga-Lakeshore incumbent Rudy Cuzetto reclaimed his seat against Elizabeth Mendes.
In other races in Peel, Brampton Centre saw two former councillors face off, including incumbent PC MPP Charmaine Williams, who won easily over current Brampton Coun. Martin Medeiros, for the Liberals.
In Ajax, PC incumbent Patrice Barnes won the seat for the first time in 2022 by about 1,500 votes. This time she faced new Liberal candidate Rob Cerjanec, who worked in public education and as a business consultant. Polling had the two candidates in a neck-and-neck race that made the riding a toss-up but Cerjanec was victorious, winning by 331 votes, flipping the seat.听
“Doug Ford interrupted my victory speech,” joked Cerjanec. “But this feels amazing. You know, Doug Ford called a snap election because he tried to take advantage of the situation, and this time he was successful. But with more Liberal MPs at Queen’s Park and official party status, I’m confident that we’ll work hard to hold him to account and present a vision for Ontario that includes everyone.”
The NDP hoped to retain Oshawa, a riding that had many eyes on it, as the former Liberal candidate, Viresh Bansal, was kicked out of the party for a controversial message from 2023 celebrating the death of a Sikh Canadian who was killed. The seat has been held since 2014 by the NDP鈥檚 French, but she beat the Conservative candidate by only 757 votes in 2022. This time, she faced MPP Ouellette, who she defeated in 2014. Polls had them in a tight battle, but French held onto her seat by 1,925 votes.
Conservatives managed to hold on to their support, despite what has appeared to be a contentious relationship with municipalities 鈥 particularly on issues around traffic, housing, homelessness and finances.
Last month, Ontario鈥檚 Big City Mayors Caucus held a press conference to outline their key priorities from the province for the next term, with the top three being: solving the homelessness crisis, building affordable housing and infrastructure and a new financial deal for cities.
鈥淲e can鈥檛 continue to exist and plan on the Hunger Games model, which is wait for a funding announcement to open up, put your application in and hope you get something 鈥 where you are all competing with each other,鈥 said Burlington Mayor Marianne Meed Ward, who said there has been some 鈥減rogress on these issues, but there is more that needs to be done.鈥
In Burlington, there was an unexpectedly tight race between PC incumbent Natalie Pierre and Liberal candidate Andrea Grebenc, who only trailed by a few hundred votes for most of the night. It wasn’t called at press time.
The suburbs also saw the return of several Conservative cabinet ministers who presided over controversial files, like housing, education and the Greenbelt scandal last term. Most won their seats handily, not facing any type of rebuke from voters
Paul Calandra was most recently minister of municipal affairs and housing 鈥 who was brought in by Ford to mitigate the Greenbelt disaster following the resignation of former housing minister Steve Clark 鈥 won in Markham-Stouffville.
Prabmeet Sarkaria has served as Minister of Transportation, while Metrolinx has lagged building new lines like the Eglinton Crosstown, and been the face of the Conservatives’ controversial plan to rip up bike lanes in Toronto, and forge ahead with the controversial Highway 413. He won Brampton South handily, and was endorsed by local politicians like Brown.
And Deputy Premier and Health Minister Sylvia Jones, MPP for Dufferin-Caledon who has been a MPP since 2007, and was endorsed by local Mayor Annette Groves, also won her seat despite the province鈥檚 failed promise to fix 鈥渉allway medicine鈥 and their contentious move toward privatization.
Stephen Lecce, was the long time Minister for education, before being shuffled to Minister of Energy and Electrification. He safely won his seat in King-Vaughan.
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