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Trump’s 30-day reprieve of tariffs on Canadian imports kind of pulled the rug out from Doug Ford’s whole provincial election pitch to Ontarians, who will now vote on Feb. 27 without any clue on what Trump will do next. Meanwhile, polls are showing that Pierre Poilievre and the federal Conservatives are taking a hit in popularity as Canadians shift their attention to who’s best to deal with the havoc Trump is wreaking. So my question to you, Matt: is it time for Poilievre’s team to get nervous?

Matt Gurney: No, except to the background extent of how nervous the rest of us are and should be about the total crap show that is the world today.

It’s clear that Ford’s plan was upended a bit by the tariff delay and polling also shows that Ontarians are convinced that Ford called the election for selfish reasons — but the polls also show Ford is cruising to a big majority anyway. Likewise, polls have suggested (admittedly, with some pretty spectacular divergence) that the federal race has tightened, but most still show a commanding Conservative lead. The race has tightened from a historic Conservative blowout to merely an unusually large Conservative win.

The Conservatives themselves are adjusting their strategy — belatedly, I think, but all the same — and they haven’t really begun to campaign against Mark Carney yet, who’s mostly keeping a low profile. I definitely think the time may come for them to get nervous, but I don’t think that time is now, and I don’t think they are yet. After all, dropping Justin Trudeau for Carney isn’t exactly something they haven’t had some time to muse about and prepare for.

SD: I disagree (which is good, because that’s what we’re supposed to be doing here). To me, the Conservatives look entirely unprepared for Carney. Changing their slogans to the “Carney-Trudeau Liberals� looks like a communications strategy built from Popsicle sticks and Elmer’s glue.

MG: You’re not the target audience.

SD: I’ll grant you that. But Poilievre needs Liberals who have drifted. I’m wary, as you know, of casting this Liberal leadership race as a coronation for Carney; I think all of the candidates deserve a fair hearing. But one of the things that Liberals have lacked over the past few years is what the pros like to call a “narrative” — a story to tell about why Canada needs a middle-ground party. Trump’s bullying is giving them a story again.

MG: There’s always been a story. What the Liberals lacked was the means to tell it, since their ability to communicate had collapsed into a void of incompetence, as had their ability to execute on their policy agenda — and, weirdly, their ability to perceive electoral facts and react accordingly, especially as pertains to an outgoing prime minister’s job performance. I don’t see any evidence here of anything beyond the Liberals hitting rock bottom and bouncing up a bit now that they’re (almost) free of the prime minister, who should have either jumped or been shoved into retirement 18 months ago. There’s been no campaign yet, no defining issues (although we can clearly take a good guess at what one will likely be). Conservatives should be wary and alert, and I think they are. But nervous? No. Maybe later. But not yet.

SD: So we’ll put you down as a “maybe” on the Liberals’ return from the dead?

MG: Ha. Well, that would be accurate. There’s definitely a scenario in which the Conservative party snatches defeat from the jaws of victory, and every single prediction I’d make these days comes with a Donald Trump-sized asterisk. So yes, put me down as a maybe on that. But more relevant to the point, put me down as skeptical that the Conservatives are nervous, because something you said here is worth zooming in on. You said Poilievre needs Liberals who’ve drifted. He might. He’d certainly need them to win some seats. But I think the lesson for us all in recent years is that elections can be won by motivating new voters. Poilievre has been doing that. Some º£½ÇÉçÇø¹ÙÍøLiberals getting Carney fever may not do much to offset that.

SD: I will say this: this upsurge in Canadian patriotism is a wild card. Conservatives have been very good in the past about wrapping themselves in the flag — and I’m not talking about the F—- Trudeau one. I can see ways in which Poilievre can capitalize on that, although he’ll need to be a bit more careful about his “Canada is broken” line if he doesn’t want to be seen as agreeing with Trump. I already see signs that he’s toning that down a bit.

MG: I do, too. The smart play for him will be to keep hammering on that, but with a more optimistic and urgent message: “It’s time to fix what’s broken and make Canada stronger.” Something like that. I think there is an appetite out there for some real change, and that’s why Carney is trying to present himself as an outsider. I have doubts it’ll work.

SD: The fact that Trump and Carney are forcing the Conservatives to pivot reinforces to me that it is time for them to be nervous — or at least go back to the drawing board on all the slogans that worked so well over the last couple of years.

MG: I hope we get a real campaign, with real debates over real issues. I think we’ll get different slogans and Carney ducking the media as much as possible while the Conservatives keep the Twitter war machine running all the time. In other words, we’ll get the same strategy with slightly new tactics. It’s not what the country needs, but I think it’s what’s coming.