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Which means Doug Ford has just won the prize of a humbled, hobbled opposition as he dreams of being re-elected premier yet again.

Democracy is nothing if not unpredictable. But internal party democracy has its own unfathomable logic.

Here’s a scorecard and a user’s guide to a dizzying month of political ups and downs:

First, the third-place Liberals lost their leader, Bonnie Crombie. True, she won her leadership review with 57 per cent of the votes cast, but under the unspoken conventions of party democracy, a majority doesn’t always win the day.

Never mind that it was an improvement over her 53 per cent victory in a leadership convention two years ago. The loser of that 2023 race, Nate Erskine-Smith, insisted this month on a super-majority of 66 per cent for Crombie to hang on to her job — and she fell short.

That benchmark — a holdover from Joe Clark’s impulsive gambit decades ago — has always struck me as arbitrary arbitrage, if not anti-democratic. Why should an incumbent have to clear the two-thirds hurdle normally reserved for historic changes to the Constitution, when a party can win governmental power in our democracy with a simple majority or plurality of votes?

Suppose that Erskine-Smith finally wins the consolation prize of provincial party leader (disconsolate and “disrespected� after being bounced from the federal cabinet). What happens if he wins only 52 per cent of the ballots cast — less than Crombie won this time and last time?

Would he be deemed illegitimate for falling short of his putative 66 per cent threshold, and refuse the job? Don’t count on it.

When the votes were counted this month, Crombie initially tried to stand her ground. But when the ground shifted under her feet — caucus cautioned her about a party divided — she could see the purge coming and announced that she was going.

In the aftermath, the second-place New Democratic Party proclaimed itself a study in contrast and a model of unity. Not for them the internecine manoeuvring and sterile quarrels of power-hungry Liberals stabbing themselves in the back, NDP stalwarts mused.

The party’s gloating and boasting about the misfortunes of the rival Liberals didn’t last long. A week later, NDP Leader Marit Stiles faced her own mandatory leadership review and emerged with a surprisingly paltry 68 per cent endorsement.

A better tally than Crombie’s, except that Stiles was essentially running against herself, unopposed — not being badmouthed by a bitter rival off and on for two years. Come to think of it, she never faced a single declared rival in the NDP’s uncontested 2023 leadership “race.�

But acclamation isn’t adoration, as Stiles learned to her chagrin this month. By contrast, former provincial leader Andrea Horwath won 85 per cent and 84 per cent in her last two post-election leadership reviews.

Jolted by her middling result, Stiles quickly recovered when the NDP caucus rallied to her side (Liberal MPPs hadn’t joined the wounded Crombie onstage the week before).

Stiles stayed on but offed her top staff — sacrificial offerings, purged to placate the party: chief of staff Greg Denton, principal secretary Stephanie Nakitsas (daughter of George Nakitsas, who held the same job for former federal leader Ed Broadbent) and provincial director Kevin Beaulieu.

Beware the false logic of leadership reviews. I keep reminding readers of former Parti Québecois leader Pauline Marois, who won an admirable 93 per cent vote of confidence in a postelection leadership review, only to be purged months later by her caucus.

Stiles is surely safe, because no one else wants the job. Crombie was a goner, because someone else — Erskine-Smith — lost his cabinet job in Ottawa and seemed to be looking for hers at Queen’s Park (would she still be leader if he was still a minister?).

The NDP bloodletting may satisfy the grassroots, but will it play across the province at a time when the party is seen as an also-ran? Stiles has stepped up her rhetoric in the aftermath, promising a winning election campaign, but she hardly has Ford on the run.

In the Feb. 27 election, the NDP placed a humiliating third in the popular vote with a mere 18.6 per cent, well behind Ford’s Tories at 43 per cent and Crombie’s Liberals at 30 per cent (thanks to local voting patterns, the New Democrats won 27 seats, nearly double the Liberal tally but too far behind the Tories (80 seats) to deny them another majority government.

That was then. An Abacus Data poll published in the Star this week showed NDP support has now fallen to its lowest-ever level of 12 per cent, while Ford’s Tories are sparking envy with a remarkable 52 per cent support (interestingly, that’s fully five percentage points less than Crombie won in her ill-fated leadership review).

Interestingly, 46 per cent said Ford was their top choice for premier, compared to 18 per cent who preferred Crombie. A mere 12 per cent picked Stiles.

Despite those numbers, Crombie is out of a job and Stiles is still on the job. And after all that opposition upheaval, Ford’s grip on the top political job looks steadier than ever.

Be careful what you wish for. With all that backsliding behind us, we take you back to the placid politics of the province — Premier Doug Ford presiding.