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A new Statistics Canada report offers a rare glimpse at how study- and work-permit holders navigated Canada’s immigration labyrinth to extend permits, acquire permanent residence and in some cases, end up losing valid status.

It found that more than a third of these non-permanent residents (NPR) are hanging by a thread, retaining temporary status, while up to 40 per cent did end up acquiring permanent residence after three years.

“Reducing new entries alone may have limited short-term impact on the overall stock of NPRs,” warned 

To make the point, it found the 24 per cent drop in newly issued study permits (including first-time permits and extensions) has only yielded a four per cent reduction in the total number of study permit holders in the country in the last two years.

Likewise, although newly issued work permits under the so-called international mobility program and temporary foreign worker program declined by four per cent from 2023 to 2024, the year-end number of work permit holders actually rose by 19 per cent. 

Based on year-end residency data from 2018 to 2022, researchers examined how the stock of work and study permit holders in a given year changed their residency status over the following three years.

They looked at the share of these permit holders in each subsequent year who obtained permanent residency; held valid current permits, received a new temporary residency permit, claimed asylum or did not have a valid residency permit. 

Over the four-year period, 64 per cent in 2020 to 79 per cent in 2022 of these permit holders retained their non-permanent resident status by the end of the following year. That ratio fell to the range of 48 per cent to 59 per cent after year two and 36 per cent to 38 per cent by year three.

The findings also show that the share of international students and foreign workers who found a permanent residence pathway rose in successive years from the range of four per cent to 10 per cent after year one to between 31 per cent and 40 per cent by the third year. 

Meanwhile, those who did not extend their legal permits over the four-year span also grew from between 12 per cent and 20 per cent, to the range of 23 per cent to 33 per cent. The data, however, is based on the validity period of the issued work or study permits, and does not indicate whether an individual was residing in Canada.

Changes in residency status also varied by permit type. Study permit holders were more likely to maintain their temporary status, while work permit holders under the international mobility program had the most success in becoming permanent residents by the end of the third year. 

“These patterns underscore that the dynamics of the NPR population are shaped not only by new entries, but also by transitions to permanent residency, permit renewals and exits from valid status,” the report concluded.  

It found that the number of work and study permit holders who ended up seeking asylum was negligible, accounting for between 0.1 and 0.2 per cent of this population over the studied period.