Suddenly it seems there鈥檚 a new narrative out of Ottawa and it goes roughly like this:
Canadians aren鈥檛 so concerned about Trump and tariffs and all that anymore. They鈥檙e back to worrying about those old favourites that dominated our politics back in the old days (i.e. about 10 months ago) 鈥 inflation, the cost of living, and unaffordable housing.
That narrative came into sharp focus last week when pollster Jean-Marc L茅ger briefed the Carney cabinet and emerged to say that Trump etc. has slipped down the worry list for most Canadians. 鈥淎 year ago, tariffs were the No. 1 issue and that鈥檚 one of the reasons why this government had been elected,鈥 he told journalists. 鈥淭oday, that鈥檚 changed. Tariffs rank fourth in Canada. People are less afraid of tariffs and Trump.鈥
There鈥檚 no reason to believe he鈥檚 wrong. Another poll by Abacus over the weekend finds the same thing. Trump ranks third in that survey, behind the cost of living and the economy.
There鈥檚 no point in arguing with public opinion. If that鈥檚 what people think, that鈥檚 what they think. But have we really pushed the threat to our economy and our sovereignty to the back of our minds so quickly?
Back in February, a scant seven months ago, I worried Canadians wouldn鈥檛 be able to hold on to the sense of outrage and fear generated by Trump. I was concerned the anger we were feeling would inevitably fade with time, and with it would fade our resolve to do the tough things needed to build a more secure and independent future.
I wrote we should find a way to bottle the feeling of last February, and when the anger faded we should take a sip of that rage to keep us going.
Well, apparently we鈥檝e reached that moment and it may be time to take out that bottle have a big gulp. Trump hasn鈥檛 insulted Canada lately or questioned our very existence as a sovereign nation. The tariff fight has transitioned from a shocking blitzkrieg to a grinding battle of attrition. It鈥檚 not so gripping anymore. So we鈥檙e back to worrying about the price of groceries.
But let鈥檚 face it: the Trump crisis hasn鈥檛 gone away. What we鈥檝e seen so far is just the overture to the main performance 鈥 a challenge to the continental trade deal that underpins much of our prosperity. There鈥檚 an excellent chance Trump doesn鈥檛 simply want to renegotiate the CUSMA/USMCA agreement, but to rip it up entirely.
As the Carney government keeps saying, Canada is shielded from the worst impacts of the Trump tariff war by that agreement. It still has, as the government says, the best of a series of bad deals on trade 鈥 despite all the noise about auto and steel tariffs.
The irony is those reassurances may have lulled Canadians into a sense of complacency about Trump, at least for the moment. The Conservatives and their are happy to feed into that feeling. They know the Liberals rode anger at Trump to electoral victory in April and they鈥檙e eager to change the channel to anything else 鈥 inflation, crime, immigration, you name it.
But this would be short-sighted for at least two reasons.
First, it鈥檚 impossible to separate 鈥淭rump鈥 from the state of the economy and cost of living. The uncertainty created by the tariff threat is killing business investment and hiring. It鈥檚 the biggest reason of the year and why 鈥 the highest in almost a decade, leaving aside the pandemic years.
Canadians may well be focused on 鈥渢he economy,鈥 as the new polls show. But as long as there鈥檚 a knife to our throat in the form of Trump鈥檚 threats, the issues they鈥檙e worried about will only get worse.
Second, this was always going to be a long-term effort. We鈥檙e talking about nothing less than restructuring Canada鈥檚 economy, a once-in-a-century undertaking. This country has spent the past 80 years trying to get closer to the United States in every way. Reversing course and weaning ourselves off total reliance on one market was never going to be easy, or quick.
So take a big sip from that bottle of anger. It would be a dreadful shame if Canada lost its struggle for independence simply because it got bored with the fight.
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