CANTON, Ga. (AP) 鈥 A lone Democrat competing for a state senate seat in a deeply Republican Atlanta suburb snagged nearly 40% of votes in a special primary election last month, amplifying her party’s optimism that discontent with President Donald Trump could spur future wins.
Yet it’s unclear whether Democrat Debra Shigley’s success foreshadows a coming Democratic wave like her supporters hope. have performed well in low-turnout in recent years, and parties perform better locally when they aren’t in control of the executive branch, Georgia Republican strategist Brian Robinson said.
鈥淭o read the tea leaves too much is a fool鈥檚 errand, because it鈥檚 such a low turnout,鈥 Robinson said. 鈥淎ll it shows is that Democrats are more angry than Republicans are, and fear and anger are the most important motivators in voter turnout.鈥
tracking 39 special elections nationwide since Trump entered office shows that on average, Democrats performed 15.7 percentage points better than former Vice President Kamala Harris did as a presidential candidate in 2024. Republicans mostly kept their seats, but Democrats state senate seat in March and in January and August.
Anger at DC, or a predictable outcome?
After taking the primary, Shigley advances to a Sept. 23 runoff in which Republican Jason Dickerson will be favored. The District 21 seat is up for grabs after Trump drafted state , who won with more than 70% of the vote in 2024, to serve as U.S. treasurer.
Georgia does not have party primaries in special legislative elections, so Shigley competed against six Republicans. Dickerson, an investment company president, came in second with 17.4% of the vote.
Shigley is a lawyer and mother of five who started a business that delivers hair care services to women of color. She lives in the affluent suburb of Milton, and it is her second political race after she lost in 2024 to Republican state House Speaker .
Shigley promises to champion working families and push to lower the costs of housing, health care and groceries. But she says her campaign is also generating enthusiasm because it’s letting and 鈥渕ake their voices heard鈥 in a moment when 鈥渇olks have felt a lot of despair.鈥
鈥淭he chaos that鈥檚 happening right now is causing folks not just pain in their pocketbook but the anxiety when you look at the headlines and feel it鈥檚 just one chaotic measure everyday,鈥 Shigley said at a recent campaign event in the district, which includes suburbs in Fulton and Cherokee counties about 20 miles (30 kilometers) north of downtown Atlanta.
Connor Roberts, who knocked on hundreds of doors for Shigley over the summer before starting his freshman year at college, said people may not be switching which party they vote for, but many who lean liberal are 鈥渞eally fired up鈥 about Trump’s actions and are voting in special elections when they usually wouldn’t.
Dickerson, for his part, has made standard conservative appeals on the campaign trail, advocating for lower taxes, less bureaucracy, stricter immigration enforcement and . He is self-funding his race.
鈥淒ickerson is stepping up to serve our community rather than lobbyists or special interests,鈥 his campaign website says.
Dickerson has said his experience as a businessman would help him work with other legislators to pass conservative policies. He also touts his track record helping people access housing and scholarships through his foundation.
Looking to 2026
The Democratic Party in Cherokee County, home to most of the district, has historically been weak, according to party chair Nate Rich.
But Rich said it has come alive for Shigley’s campaign, which has drawn hundreds of volunteers and unprecedented enthusiasm from voters. In his view Democrats need a platform that promises to do more than just oppose Trump, and Shigley’s emphasis on helping working families does just that.
鈥淭he small army that we built, we’re training them up,鈥 Rich said.
Even if Shigley loses, Democrats hope grassroots organizers will multiply statewide with races coming up in 2026 for governor, U.S senator and other offices.
鈥淭he way we win the governor鈥檚 seat and the U.S. Senate seat is by organizing up and down the ballot, and it鈥檚 races like Debra鈥檚 that are going to lay the groundwork that is going to build the broad-based coalition that we need to win,鈥 said , an Atlanta Democrat and gubernatorial candidate who has campaigned for Shigley multiple times.
Georgia Republican Party chairman said Republicans also need to mobilize their voters to avoid losses like the , but the state still leans conservative.
鈥淚f Democrats are saying that because she got 39% of the vote in a rock-bottom-turnout special election, that’s good news, then they鈥檙e having to look really hard to find good news for Georgia Democrats,鈥 McKoon said.
How voters feel about Trump a year from now will matter most for the 2026 elections, said Charles Bullock III, a political science professor at the University of Georgia.
McKoon noted that the GOP picked up ground in the 2024 presidential election and is confident voters still largely support Trump statewide. But Bullock said there are signs that people across party lines are displeased with the president’s immigration crackdown and tariffs, which could continue to drive up prices.
鈥淲hat鈥檚 going to be at play in 2026 is does Trump deliver on his promises, and if he does, are they still popular?鈥 Bullock said.
Only if Democrats flip more seats across the country, he said, will Shigley鈥檚 race 鈥渢ell us something broader.鈥
___
Kramon is a corps member for The Associated Press/Report for America Statehouse News Initiative. is a nonprofit national service program that places journalists in local newsrooms to report on undercovered issues.
