The tiny, gas-rich Gulf Arab state of Qatar hosts the biggest U.S. military base in the Middle East. It has evacuated tens of thousands of American citizens from Afghanistan. It has been designated a U.S. 鈥渕ajor non-NATO ally.鈥 It has even lavished a $400 million jumbo jet on President Donald Trump for use as Air Force One.
None of that protected this quiet peninsula in the Persian Gulf as it mediated U.S.-backed negotiations .
in Qatar鈥檚 capital of Doha, sending plumes of smoke and debris rising over a city of and luxury malls .
on southern Israel ignited its war in Gaza, the Israeli military has targeted Hamas leaders far afield.
and , Israel had refrained from striking Hamas鈥 political office in Qatar, the key mediator and U.S. ally that Israeli leadership relied on as a back channel to the Palestinian militant group.
On Tuesday, Israel made a dangerous gamble, analysts say, poisoning , sending political shock waves through the region and raising doubts about historical U.S. security guarantees for its Gulf Arab allies.
It didn鈥檛 immediately pay off for Israel: survived the strike.
鈥淭his is a broader shock for the international order, raising questions about sovereignty and the free rein being given to Israel,鈥 said Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House. 鈥淭he reliability of the United States in the Middle East will be questioned.”
U.S. knowledge of attack roils its alliance with Qatar
Qatar has long come under fire for hosting Hamas to evict its top leadership.
But it was a U.S.-supported arrangement that allowed Hamas to open its political office in Doha in 2012 as Washington sought to establish indirect lines of communication with the Palestinian militant group it designates as a terrorist organization.
Hosting Hamas and , has helped Qatar carve out an influential position in global conflict mediation. Qatari officials believed that the emirate’s designation as a major U.S. non-NATO ally and its , regional headquarters of the U.S. Central Command, lent it security cover that would restrain Israel.
Israeli strikes shattered that illusion on Tuesday, crashing into central Doha despite all the U.S. missile batteries and from Al Udeid.
The U.S. said Israel alerted it before striking. Whatever warning the White House said it passed to Qatar was too little, too late: Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari said his country was only notified as the bombs were falling.
Shock reverberates across Gulf Arab states
The apparent U.S. disregard for Qatari security and sovereignty rattled nerves across the sheikdoms of the Persian Gulf, which, despite , marshaled a strong show of unity.
鈥淭he security of the Arab Gulf states is indivisible, and we stand heart and soul with the sisterly Qatar, condemning the treacherous Israeli attack,鈥 said Anwar Gargash, a diplomatic adviser to the rulers of the United Arab Emirates.
Although the U.S. remains the only country willing to station thousands of troops across the Persian Gulf, the perception of Washington as an unreliable ally to Gulf Arab nations has grown in recent years, analysts say. The UAE and Saudi Arabia in particular have sought to diversify their relationships, growing closer to China and Russia.
鈥淭hey don’t want to rely solely on the U.S. for security, they want ties with a range of global actors,鈥 said Will Todman, a senior fellow with the Middle East program at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. 鈥(Israel’s) strikes will accelerate that trend.鈥
Gulf Arab countries 鈥 with small militaries and oil-dependent economies uniquely vulnerable to shocks of any kind 鈥 now see Israel鈥檚 belligerence as a source of growing concern, even more so than Iran鈥檚.
While Emiratis and Saudis view political Islam as a threat and loathe Hamas, experts say they鈥檇 prefer a detente with their weakened rivals to the continuation of an ever-widening war that could trigger strikes on their soil.
鈥淭he Gulf states are not secretly happy about the strikes on Hamas,鈥 said Vakil. 鈥淭hey see Israel鈥檚 continued military activities as destabilizing for the region. Traditionally, Iran was the most serious threat, but now 鈥 with Iran weakened but not defeated 鈥 it鈥檚 Israel they are worried about.”
Israel’s “Abraham Accords” thrown into doubt
That doesn鈥檛 bode well for Israel鈥檚 ambitions to expand the so-called 鈥淎braham Accords,鈥 which established ties between Israel and four Arab countries, .
Before the Israel-Hamas war, there were signs that regional powerhouse , regarding such an alliance as a bulwark against Iran and its unruly regional proxies.
and its allies. Its devastating campaign in Gaza has , prompting Saudi Arabia to revive its insistence on Palestinian statehood as a condition for normalizing ties with Israel.
Tuesday’s strike now dashes any lingering hopes that Israel might have of cozying up to other Arab countries, analysts say.
鈥淔or all intents and purposes, normalization is dead for Gulf Arab states today,” said Dina Esfandiary, the lead Middle East analyst at Bloomberg Economics, a research group. 鈥淗ow do you normalize with the country that鈥檚 attacking one of your brothers?鈥
A ceasefire further out of reach
for delicate negotiations with Israel to end the fighting and free dozens of Israeli hostages still held captive in Gaza.
The Hamas leaders targeted in Israel鈥檚 attack had been meeting to discuss the Trump administration鈥檚 latest ceasefire proposal, which called for Hamas to immediately release the 48 Israeli hostages still in Gaza 鈥 20 of whom are believed to be alive.
, beholden to his , has resisted calls to end the war and to seize Gaza City 鈥 an escalation that many fear will doom remaining Israeli hostages and exacerbate a humanitarian crisis for Palestinians.
said he thought it wasn’t worth continuing the ceasefire negotiations in light of the attack. Even without killing top Hamas leaders or altering the course of the war, the strike confirmed the worst fears of risk-averse Gulf Arab states, experts said.
鈥淭he attack was a message not just to Hamas but to the region,鈥 Vakil said. 鈥淢ilitary pressure will continue, with Washington seeing Israeli dominance as effective.鈥
