CHISINAU, Moldova (AP) 鈥 Moldovans head to the polls Sunday to cast ballots in a tense parliamentary election fraught with claims of Russian interference. The vote could decide the country鈥檚 geopolitical future: a stark choice between East and West.
Landlocked between Ukraine and European Union member Romania, has spent recent years on a westward path toward the EU. Sunday鈥檚 ballot to elect a new 101-seat parliament will determine whether that continues or if the country of about 2.5 million people is pulled back into Moscow’s orbit.
The race pits the ruling pro-Western Party of Action and Solidarity, which has held a strong parliamentary majority since 2021, against several key Russia-friendly opponents but no viable pro-European partners, leaving a lot of uncertainty over potential outcomes in the pivotal ballot.
If PAS fails to win a majority on Sunday, 鈥淚t would mean an end to EU integration,鈥 Igor Grosu, the PAS leader and speaker of parliament, . 鈥淚t would mean dependence, halting all justice reforms, infrastructure projects, everything 鈥 there is no middle option.鈥
鈥淎ll our efforts and messages are about mobilizing to win a parliamentary majority,鈥 he added.
Race to counter Russia’s alleged 鈥榟ybrid war鈥
Besides voter turnout, the outcome of Sunday鈥檚 high-stakes ballot might depend on how effective Moldovan authorities have been in their cat-and-mouse race to outwit Russia鈥檚 alleged 鈥渉ybrid war鈥 鈥 the aim of which they say is to derail the country鈥檚 EU path.
Moldova鈥檚 Prime Minister Dorin Recean to try to 鈥渟eize power in Chisinau鈥 in a campaign he described as 鈥渋ncreasingly radical.鈥
The alleged schemes include a large-scale vote-buying operation, cyberattacks on critical government infrastructure, a plan to incite mass riots around the election, and a to sway voters.
Modovan authorities have tried to crack down by conducting hundreds of , in which scores have been detained. Moldovan President Maia Sandu said this week in a public address that the Kremlin 鈥渉as accomplices here in Moldova,鈥 describing them as people 鈥渨illing to sell out their country for money.鈥
Moscow has repeatedly denied meddling in Moldova. In a statement Thursday, Russia鈥檚 Ministry of Foreign Affairs dismissed allegations of Russian interference in Moldova鈥檚 elections as 鈥渁nti-Russian鈥 and 鈥渦nsubstantiated.鈥
Sunday鈥檚 vote also will be held less than a year after Moldovans voted narrowly in favor of securing the country鈥檚 EU path, the same day Sandu won a second term in a separate vote. But those votes were also and a massive vote-buying scheme, which Moscow denied.
Voters confront high inflation and poverty
In recent years, as the country has lurched from crisis to crisis, Moldovans have faced rampant inflation, increasing costs of living and high poverty rates, which may have diminished support for the ruling pro-Western government.
To relieve the strain, Brussels is providing Moldova with up to 1.9 billion euros ($2.2 billion) between 2025 and 2027, for projects like a new hospital and helping to lower energy bills.
Eugen, a 41-year-old artist in Chisinau, who did not want to give his surname due to the tense political climate, told the AP that he favors a path toward the EU, but acknowledges voters are fatigued from 鈥渉igh expectations and expecting miracles.鈥
鈥淲e need to have more patience in our course to the European Union,鈥 he said, adding that the 27-nation bloc is 鈥渟tability, it鈥檚 human rights 鈥 some kind of unity, some kind of prosperity and meritocracy.鈥
Russia-friendly opposition claims abuses
A key opponent of PAS in Sunday鈥檚 election is the Russia-friendly Patriotic Electoral Bloc, or BEP, a group of political parties that wants 鈥渇riendship with Russia, 鈥減ermanent neutrality” and a 鈥渟tate that serves the people, not officials.鈥
On Friday, the Central Electoral Commission , which was part of the BEP, from participating in the race. The commission鈥檚 action was based on a ruling a day earlier by the Chisinau Court of Appeal, which restricted the party鈥檚 activities for 12 months. Earlier this month, raids on party members led to allegations of voter bribery, illegal party financing and money laundering.
Irina Vlah, leader of the Heart of Moldova, condemned 鈥渢he abusive decision鈥 and called it a 鈥減olitical spectacle, concocted a long time ago鈥 by the ruling party. Vlah also was banned Thursday from entering Latvia, Estonia and Poland, which accused her of 鈥渉elping the Russian Federation” to interfere in the parliamentary elections.
Igor Dodon, a former pro-Russian president and the leader of the Socialist Party, which is also part of the BEP, lashed out at Sandu and the ruling PAS, saying their 鈥渄ays are numbered.鈥
鈥淭hey understand that their end is near, so they resort to abusing our colleagues in the bloc,鈥 Dodon said in a post on Facebook. 鈥淲e will win the elections, and together we will defend our victory.鈥
Later the same day, the Central Electoral Commission also excluded the Moldova Mare party from the race, citing illegal financing, undeclared foreign funds and vote-buying. The Moldova Mare鈥檚 leader, Victoria Furtuna, was sanctioned by the EU in July for receiving 鈥渟ignificant support鈥 from .
Diaspora could play a decisive role
Moldova鈥檚 large diaspora is expected to play a decisive role in Sunday鈥檚 outcome. In last year鈥檚 presidential run-off, a record number of 327,000 voters cast ballots abroad, , which ultimately secured her reelection.
Most local polls don鈥檛 include the country鈥檚 diaspora, and they also indicate that about a third of voters remain undecided, which leaves a big question mark over the vote. In the 2021 parliamentary election, turnout was just over 48%.
鈥淢oldova now has a clear path toward becoming a member of the European Union,鈥 said Iulian Groza, executive director of the Institute for European Policies and Reforms think tank. 鈥淩ussia is looking at these elections as their ultimate battle 鈥 so this is why the stakes are very high.鈥
Disinformation could have an outsized impact
Valeriu Pasa, president of the Chisinau-based think tank Watchdog, told the AP that while the economic climate may have turned some voters off PAS, the intensity of Russian interference and disinformation would have exacerbated diminishing support.
鈥淥n one hand, there is the economic situation and not-perfect quality of governance, and additionally, it is Russian disinformation,鈥 he said. 鈥淔or example, if normally, because of the (high) prices, you should lose 3%, when it鈥檚 overwhelmed by Russian propaganda, you will lose 9%.鈥
Pasa added that during last year’s election cycle, Russia used more 鈥渟ophisticated narratives, conspiracies, these complex ideas,鈥 but has resorted to flooding the information space.
“Now it鈥檚 just a big quantity of fakes, AI-generated content,鈥 he said. 鈥淲e didn鈥檛 get rid of the Soviet legacy of Soviet propaganda, which impacted a lot of people.鈥
