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McKnight says in January and February, refineries go down for maintenance to switch over to producing summer fuels, raising prices until they peak around mid-April. 

What consumers see at the pump now might be what they get for the warmer months, but McKnight says the utterings of U.S. President Donald Trump on tariffs and geopolitical issues may jolt the market. 

He says the effects of the federal consumer carbon levy’s demise seem to be holding after Prime Minister Mark Carney did away with the charge on April 1.

The levy equated to 17.6 cents per litre of gasoline, and McKnight says pump prices remain about 15 cents per litre lower than before the change took effect. 

He adds that refineries are running at about 90 per cent capacity, which is low for this time of year. 

“The driving season is right around the corner, but the refining margins are so, so poor that the refiner is saying, ‘Heck, we’re just going to hold back … if we are not making good money on the stuff we’re making,’” he said. 

The price of crude oil, the raw product used to make gasoline and diesel, has been weak lately.

West Texas Intermediate, a U.S. benchmark for light oil, has been hovering around the US$60-per-barrel mark in recent weeks, about US$10 lower than it was just six months ago. 

The Canadian Fuels Association, citing 2023 data from Kalibrate Canada Inc., said crude oil represents about 42 per cent of the pump price, with taxes, refining, distribution and marketing making up the rest.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published May 16, 2025.