If there’s a place in Ontario synonymous with tourism it’s Niagara Falls, a city with something for everyone, from the cheesy attractions on Clifton Hill, to the pounding beauty of the falls and the stunning vineyards in the region around it.
It’s also a region where more than 40,000 people rely on tourism for their living, income that Niagara Falls Mayor Jim Diodati isn’t going to let U.S. President Donald Trump get the better of — again.
The city had barely recovered from COVID two years ago when Diodati said things reached a “breaking point” due to an influx of more than 5,000 asylum seekers from the U.S. The newcomers were housed in Niagara Falls hotels, a situation he is speaking out on to get the ear of the federal government, which provides funding for the accommodation.
“My concern is with 11 million, or so we’re told, ‘illegals’ living in the United States, if President Trump pulls the plug, we know where most of them are headed,” said Diodati, in a recent interview with the Star, referring to Trump’s crackdown on immigration. “They’re going to head to the Canadian border again. And I don’t know how we’re going to handle big numbers.”
He added that the crisis of 2023 “was having negative effects on the community,” including on schools and businesses that serve the tourism industry. “It’s too much for one community to handle.”
And it’s that kind of uncertainty, not knowing what could happen next in the U.S., that has the potential to disrupt tourism in the province.
Ontario’s tourism industry was within “striking distance” of rebounding from COVID prior to the U.S. election in November, said Andrew Siegwart, president and CEO of the Tourism Industry Association of Ontario.
Overnight visits from the U.S. to Ontario in 2024 were still short of 2019 levels, but they were expected to grow by 8.4 per cent in 2025, reaching or even surpassing their 2019 level, according to a Conference Board of Canada report, aided in part by the lower Canadian dollar.
But the steady beat of protectionist policies in the U.S. are making it hard to predict where tourism is headed now.
“It’s like a drip campaign of disruptive decision-making from south of the border,” said Siegwart. “It keeps businesses in a state of flux and in a stage of uncertainty.”
Take for instance, said Siegwart, the recent announcement that Trump wants to impose 100 per cent tariffs on films screened in the U.S. that are made outside the country, a move that Trump said would bring back a dying Hollywood.
“That’s an example of something new that’s just come up that actually could have a big impact on markets in Ontario,” said Siegwart, noting that a number of provincial markets rely on room nights, visitation and spending from film productions.
“Businesses are looking for some stability in a road map and until such time, they’re going to be pretty cautious in terms of the investments they make, the expansion they make and the employment commitments they make,” said Siegwart.
The unpredictability could also undermine consumer confidence in travel at a time when overseas visits to the province are still lagging below 2019 levels.
Trump’s protectionist policies also appear to be impacting U.S. business travel to Canada, with that some global conferences in B.C. planned by U.S.-based companies have been cancelled because of the perceived political risk of holding events outside the States.
That could have big implications for Canada, with conferences accounting for about 40 per cent of all Canadian tourism spending, said Siegwart, a sector that hasn’t recovered since the pandemic.
If there is an upside to the shakeup in tourism caused by Trump’s policies, it’s that Canada could be perceived as a welcoming host when it comes to attracting U.S. tourists or global conferences.
“We’re already hearing of destinations looking at campaigns to welcome Americans to come to Ontario,” said Siegwart, “highlighting the value of the dollar as an incentive and a number of other measures.
“So, you know, elbows up, but arms open is kind of our mantra.”
His organization will soon be unveiling a new strategic plan for Ontario’s tourism industry, which the province has been without since 2016, which could be good news for the industry.
In Toronto, Andrew Weir, president and CEO of Destination Toronto, said there is no indication as of now that Trump’s policies have influenced travel plans to the city with the number of bookings for U.S. meetings strong and the pace of hotel bookings ahead of other years.
He says he thinks it’s reasonable that “there will be some meeting organizers in the months and years ahead that will be reluctant to leave the U.S.,” but like Siegwart, Weir notes this period of “volatility and uncertainty” is an opening to attract more business to Canada.
As for Niagara Falls, the reality is that many asylum seekers from the U.S. are now being turned away at the border, according to the Canadian Council for Refugees, and the number housed in Niagara Falls hotels is down from a height of 5,000 to 1,500.
But concern about tourism can’t be overstated, with more than $2 billion in spending annually in the region.
Janice Thomson, president and CEO of Niagara Falls Tourism, said the industry has been on the upswing since COVID and that the forecast for the summer is positive.
That optimism though has been balanced by some reticence, she said, on the part of Americans who aren’t sure what to expect at the Canadian border.
“But we are generally hearing that it’s friendly, it’s welcoming, and our members here are certainly putting out everything in a positive way — that we are about tourism and we are about hospitality,” said Thomson. “So that message is strong and it seems to be resonating with the Americans.”
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