As veteran defenceman Chris Tanev put it: 鈥淭he fun starts now.鈥
The Maple Leafs are not just in the Stanley Cup playoffs for the ninth straight season. They have home-ice advantage聽鈥 probably for every game聽鈥 as they renew their Battle of Ontario rivalry with the Ottawa Senators.
As a kid growing up in East York and later playing for the Calgary Flames in plenty of Battles of Alberta against the Edmonton Oilers, he knows what’s coming.
鈥淚t’s the mecca of hockey,鈥 said Tanev, in his first season with his fourth NHL team. 鈥淵ou always see the Maple Leaf Square and you see all the fans around the city. There’s always going to be a buzz around the city. People are excited, and even more so that we’re playing Ottawa. It’s going to be fun.
鈥淏ig games. (These) series are fun, they’re hard, every little thing matters.鈥
The Leafs won the Atlantic Division and head into the post-season on a five-game win streak, but have a healthy respect for the underdog Senators, who beat them all three times they met this season.
鈥淲e know how good of a team they are,鈥 said Tanev. 鈥淲e know how hard they play. We know how well coached they are. So they’re a very structured team that does all the right things, does the little things to win games. And that’s why they’ve had a successful year to this point.
鈥淲e need to get our game plan going.鈥
With that in mind, here’s how Ontario’s NHL teams measure up against each other.
Over the course of four head-to-head playoff series in five years, it was a lot of fun for the Maple Leafs, and not so much for the Ottawa Senators.
Over the course of four head-to-head playoff series in five years, it was a lot of fun for the Maple Leafs, and not so much for the Ottawa Senators.
Season series
Ottawa 3-0-0
Does it matter? The Senators will think so. If nothing else, it will give their young roster some confidence heading into the franchise’s first post-season since 2017. On paper, the Senators provide a tough matchup for the Leafs. At this point, the Leafs won’t care who won in the regular season.
Forwards
Leafs: Auston Matthews took a step backward statistically (partly because of a mid-season injury) but added to his all-around game. Mitch Marner and William Nylander picked up the slack. In fact, the Leafs offence was more balanced with six players exceeding 20 goals. John Tavares seems to have an extra skip in his step, perhaps more motivated than ever for playoff success. The Leafs also have a bit better depth, able to call on Nick Robertson for speed and scoring, or Max Pacioretty for physicality, or Calle J盲rnkrok for defensive play.
Senators: Five players hit 20 goals, but none hit 30. Brady Tkachuk proved in the 4 Nations Face-Off that he’s ready for prime time. Tim St眉tzle’s growth into a top-notch centre has been impressive. Ridly Greig knows how to get under the Leafs’ skin. David Perron and Claude Giroux provide veteran leadership on a team with little playoff experience. Dylan Cozens has a big-game identity. Ottawa has a lot of ex-Leafs (Michael Amadio, Noah Gregor, Adam Gaudette) who’d love to haunt their old team.
Edge:聽Leafs. The Senators scored 2.95 goals a game, 19th in the league. The Leafs were at 3.26, tied for seventh.
Defence
Leafs: Tanev changed the makeup of the blue line in terms of toughness, size and a willingness to sacrifice the body, and formed a formidable shutdown pair with Jake McCabe. Morgan Rielly had a very down year, but has been much better since the arrival of Brandon Carlo from Boston. Oliver Ekman-Larsson can play anywhere, and Simon Benoit’s physicality is meant for the playoffs. If injuries strike, the Leafs would be in good hands with Philippe Myers and Dakota Mermis.
海角社区官网and Ottawa have crossed sabers four times in the contemporary era. The former Leafs captain remembers those series being the “toughest.”
海角社区官网and Ottawa have crossed sabers four times in the contemporary era. The former Leafs captain remembers those series being the “toughest.”
Senators: Jake Sanderson might be the most dangerous offensive player on either team at any position. That’s saying something because Thomas Chabot is right there with him and is perhaps a bit more savvy. Rookie Tyler Kleven (six-foot-five) and veteran Artem Zub (six-foot-three) offer size. Travis Hamonic and Nick Jensen are 30-something with experience.
Edge:聽Leafs. The blue line is bigger and they block more shots, setting a team record with 1,357, led by Tanev’s 189, also a Leafs mark. Ottawa blocked 1,270.
Goaltending
Leafs: Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll formed a very strong tandem this season. Stolarz is the veteran with terrific numbers and a championship ring, but only 34 minutes and 50 seconds of playoff ice time 鈥 with Florida during last year’s Stanley Cup final. Woll actually has more playoff experience with five games (four starts) over the past two seasons (3-2-0, .933 save percentage). He did that in relief of Ilya Samsonov and will probably do the same to spell Stolarz, the likely starter.
Senators: Every year, the Leafs seem to go up against a goalie with a Jennings or Vezina to his name and this year is no exception: Linus Ullmark won both with the Bruins. Since a trade with Boston, Ullmark has solidified the Ottawa net, which had always been the team’s weak link. That said, he’s 3-6-0 with an .887 save percentage in 10 career playoff games, and the Leafs beat him last year in Boston in the one game he played. He’s ably backed up by Anton Forsberg.
Edge: Tossup. The Leafs were ninth-best defensively, giving up 2.79 goals a game; Ottawa was 13th at 2.83.
Nick Robertson and Pontus Holmberg might spend Game 1 in the press box, even after helping the Leafs win 13 of 16.
Nick Robertson and Pontus Holmberg might spend Game 1 in the press box, even after helping the Leafs win 13 of 16.
Special teams
Leafs: A slow start by the power play had fans clamouring for the head of assistant coach Marc Savard. But since they switched to the five-forward unit, they’ve been terrific. They scored 54 goals on 218 chances, or 24.8 per cent (ninth in the NHL), but slowed down over the final five games. They can’t afford to repeat last year’s 1-for-21 atrocity against Boston. The penalty kill has been nothing to write home about, successful 77.9 per cent of the time (17th).
Senators: Ottawa scored more power-play goals (64) but had far more chances (269) and ranked 13th at 23.8 per cent. Their ability to draw penalties may turn into an advantage. The Senators penalty kill wasn’t very good, either: 77.7 per cent (19th).
Edge:聽Leafs, barely. They couldn’t be terrible two years in a row, could they?
Coaching
Leafs: Craig Berube won a Stanley Cup ring with the St. Louis Blues in 2019 and has changed how the Leafs approach the game: defence first, team first, less risk equals more reward. The players like him. He’s a good communicator and makes them feel valued. He can push a button now and then. His teams have gone 24-27 over six playoffs.
Senators: Travis Green has been to the post-season once as a coach, with his Vancouver Canucks going 10-7 in the COVID-shortened 2019-20 season. He was a Leaf for the 2001-02 Battle of Ontario series, so he knows what to expect on and off the ice. He’s firm and demanding, and wants players to be accountable.
Edge: Leafs. Berube has been there, done that.
X-factor
Leafs: The crowds. The Leafs will not only have home-ice advantage at Scotiabank Arena, but also in Ottawa thanks to a vast, moneyed, loyal travelling fan base.
Senators: Brady Tkachuk. If he goes to the next level, all bets are off.
Edge:聽Leafs and their 鈥淕o Leafs Go鈥 chant.
Prediction
Leafs in six. Matthews has himself a series.
The Leafs have given us a much different feel going into the Stanley Cup playoffs than the previous eight attempts, writes Nick Kypreos.
The Leafs have given us a much different feel going into the Stanley Cup playoffs than the previous eight attempts, writes Nick Kypreos.
More NHL playoff picks
Tampa vs. Florida:聽The Lightning, in a battle-to-the-death seven games.
Washington vs. Montreal: The upstart Canadiens, powered by Lane Hutson, in seven.
Carolina vs. New Jersey: The beleaguered Devils and Sheldon Keefe in six.
Winnipeg vs. St. Louis: Jets in five. Connor Hellebuyck finally gets it done in the playoffs.
Colorado vs. Dallas: Stars in seven, with Mikko Rantanen haunting his former team.
Los Angeles vs. Edmonton: Quinton Byfield and the Kings finally beat the Oilers (in six).
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