The current Blue Jays regime typically focuses on the floor of its roster more than the ceiling. The strategy is often apparent in how they operate through free agency and trades. It’s also noticeable in how they scout and draft amateur players.
It’s not that the front office is entirely risk averse. Last year, they drafted 17-year-old high school shortstop Arjun Nimmala in the first round and the season before they signed Yusei Kikuchi to a lucrative three-year deal despite a career ERA of close to five.
There is, however, a clear preference for players who are easier to project. They like certainty — as much as it can be found in an unpredictable sport — and place value in pitchers who eat up innings, or hitters who put the ball in play while possessing positional versatility.
The strategy doesn’t always work. The Jays entered this year having made the playoffs each of the last two seasons, but with a 44-52 record at the all-star break they are unlikely to sniff meaningful baseball during the second half. Their minor-league system lacks high-end prospects and is considered by many experts to be one of the worst in baseball.
If you thought recent regression would lead to a new approach, think again.
This group sticks to its beliefs and algorithms even in the face of turmoil. General manager Ross Atkins and company doubled down on a failed offence during the off-season and this month they did the same with the draft.
The Jays began this year’s draft by selecting East Carolina University right-hander Trey Yesavage in the first round. The soon-to-be 21-year-old was considered one of the most big-league-ready arms available. Yesavage should move through the system quickly and the question isn’t so much whether he’ll be a major-league starter, but how good he’ll become.
Their second-round pick offers similar attributes. Mississippi State’s Khal Stephen might never become an ace or even a mid-rotation piece, but a lot of scouts are in agreement he should develop into a No. 4 or No. 4 starter. Failing that, he at least projects to crack the bullpen.
The strategy carried into day two of the draft when the Jays used  three pitchers, three outfielders, an infielder and a catcher.
The only major gamble came in the third round when they selected 17-year-old high school left-hander Johnny King out of Naples, Fla. King has a fastball that sits in the low 90s and tops out around 95 m.p.h., and he was one of the youngest players of this class. As he grows into his six-foot-three, 210-pound frame, the velocity might tick up even higher.
After King, the run on college players continued. The most interesting selection was Bucknell third baseman Sean Keys, who was ranked . Keys has been referred to as an “analytics darling” because of a big six-foot-two, 225-pound body, powerful swing and more walks than strikeouts. It’s a skill set the Jays lack in their system.
Indiana outfielder Nick Mitchell, a fourth-round compensation pick, isn’t going to hit for power, but he slashed .335/.458/.512 in college and offers plus speed. In the fifth round, it was Kansas State righty Jackson Wentworth, who projects as a reliever.
Nobody else taken in the first 10 rounds cracked MLB Pipeline’s top 250 prospects: UC Santa Barbara catcher Aaron Parker (sixth round), UNLV right-hander Austin Cates (seventh), Virginia Tech outfielder Eddie Micheletti Jr. (eighth), Mississippi State righty Colby Holcombe (ninth) and East Carolina outfielder Carter Cunningham (10th).
College players are generally considered safer picks than their high school counterparts. They’ve had more time to mature, received better coaching and their path to the majors isn’t nearly as long. That brings added importance to a team such as the Jays, who lack prospects in the upper levels. It also provides quicker returns for a front office on the hot seat.
Most high school players come with more risk. They might turn into future stars or they might flame out before reaching Double-A. It also could take upwards of five years before teams know which of those routes it’s going to be.
Assessing grades in the immediate aftermath of the draft is little more than guesswork. Even with college players it’s going to be another year, possibly longer, before the Jays have a full understanding of who they just welcomed into the system.
But to win the lottery, you have to buy a ticket. For the last several years, they have seemed more content to play it safe rather than going for a home run. The failed pursuit of Shohei Ohtani aside, that strategy was evident throughout their off-season additions and it was prevalent again during the draft.
Same strategy, different year. From the Jays’ perspective, hopefully it works out better this time.
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