Major League Baseball is often difficult to predict. Every year there are teams that expect to contend and never come close to reaching the post-season. Then there are teams that were supposed to be bad and somehow end up being good.
Clubs that win the off-season aren’t guaranteed a thing. Ditto for the so-called losers. But there are also plenty of times when the results go according to the script. The Los Angeles Dodgers haven’t missed the playoffs since 2012, their rival Angels haven’t made it since 2014. Both streaks figure to continue this fall.
The Blue Jays fall into that second category. They entered this weekend’s series against the Seattle Mariners with an underwhelming 17-20 record thanks in large part to one of MLB’s worst lineups. Just about everyone, including their front office, should have seen that coming.
The offensive struggles aren’t new. They have been around for awhile and have gotten worse with time. In 2021, the Jays scored the third-most runs in baseball in 2021 and the fourth-most in 2022. But they dropped to 14th in 2023 and 23rd last year. And this season? Only four teams are scoring fewer runs per game than their 3.65.
Signing outfielder Anthony Santander was supposed to alleviate some of those concerns, but most of those paying attention knew it wouldn’t be enough. This lineup wasn’t going to be fixed with one guy; it required multiple pieces to have any shot at being above average.
The Jays front office either declined to do that or ran out of money to make it happen. They decided against adding a proven left fielder and third baseman in favour of trading for high-priced defensive specialist Andrés Giménez, signing Max Scherzer and overhauling the bullpen.
Based on how the year has played out so far, that wasn’t nearly good enough. Jays third basemen are 28th in the majors with a woefully low .520 on-base-plus-slugging percentage. Their left fielders are worse, at .484. Giménez, who is owed nearly $90 million (U.S.) through 2029, is at .577. The league average is .707.
And sure, it’s easy to second guess, but is it really second guessing when the general consensus — at least from the public — was that the Jays needed at least two or three bats and they ended up with just one?Â
While Alex Bregman’s $120 million price tag was too rich for third base, Seattle’s Jorge Polanco signed for $7.75 and he has nine homers and a 1.103 OPS. Yoan Moncada is far from perfect — and he just spent a month on the injured list — but his two home runs this week are two more than the Jays have gotten out of third base all year. He signed for $5 million.
Max Kepler (.766 OPS) and Teoscar Hernandez (.933) were available in the outfield. There have also been several high-profile busts, including Michael Conforto and, at least for now, Joc Pederson and Tyler O’Neill. Being more aggressive on adding big bats might not have worked but doing something at either spot would have been better than doing nothing at all.
Forget injuries, or singling out any individual player for his struggles, there are no excuses for the lack of runs. This isn’t about coaching or pressing at the plate, it’s about not having enough offensive upside in the everyday lineup. The Jays should have done more during the off-season to address those concerns.Â
Lucky to have them
The lack of quality play shouldn’t distract from the continued solid work that is being done in the booth. The Jays have one of the better broadcasts and a large chunk of the credit belongs to Sportsnet’s longtime duo of Dan Shulman and Buck Martinez.
The pair first started working alongside each other for TSN during the 1990s and their long history shows. Shulman knows exactly how to tee up his partner to provide proper analysis and Martinez remains one of the sport’s top colour commentators.
A perfect example came when José BerrÃos was on the mound Wednesday in Anaheim. BerrÃos was ahead 1-2 on Taylor Ward in the fifth inning before he missed badly with a fastball up and in, which led to the following exchange that provided insight into what BerrÃos and Alejandro Kirk were thinking.
Martinez: “I’d go back to another fastball right here because the slider has been so good for him. He missed with the fastball, (Ward’s) thinking, ‘OK, now he’s going to go back to the slider.’ Throw the fastball again.”
Shulman: “The 2-2. He did! And he froze him! Well done, Buck. Strike three called.”
Down goes Gimenez
Gimenez was placed on the IL with a strained right quad prior to Friday’s series opener in Seattle, which should open the door for Addison Barger to get an extended look. The 25-year-old Barger has been with the Jays for almost a month and, until now, he has only started in back-to-back games twice.
With Clement switching to second, that leaves regular at-bats at third for Barger, who lacks consistency but possesses plenty of upside. While infielder Michael Stefanic was called up to replace Giménez on the roster, he’s 29 with a career .591 OPS. Barger’s the guy who should be getting most of the reps after Will Wagner’s previous struggles forced his demotion to Buffalo.
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