If the NBA playoffs were like the NCAA tournament, chances are your brackets would be busted by now.
And that’s because these conference final matchups — at least by seeding — weren’t very predictable.
In the Western Conference finals, which start Tuesday, it’s No. 1 Oklahoma City and No. 6 Minnesota. In the Eastern Conference finals, which start Wednesday, it’s No. 3 New York and No. 4 Indiana.
Under the current NBA playoff format, which goes back to 1984, such matchups — 1 vs. 6, and 3 vs. 4 — have been fairly rare.
A breakdown:
3 vs. 4 — It has happened three previous times, all in the West, and each time the No. 3 seed won the series 4-1 on their way to claiming the NBA title. Those matchups: San Antonio over Utah in 2007, Dallas over Oklahoma City in 2011 and Golden State over Dallas in 2022.
1 vs. 6 — This is the sixth time a No. 1 team has played a No. 6 team in this format, with four of the previous matchups in the conference finals and the other in the 1995 NBA Finals. The No. 1 seeds are 3-2: the Los Angeles Lakers beating Phoenix for the West title in 1984, Detroit beating Chicago in 1989 for the East title and Boston sweeping Indiana last year for the East crown. The No. 6 seed wins both came in 1995 when Houston ousted San Antonio for the West title and then swept Orlando for the NBA championship.
Don’t wait around
Even though this has been the season of the comeback victory — with five rallies from at least 20-point deficits so far in this postseason — it’s not advisable to expect a late rally when playing against the four teams left in these NBA playoffs.
Minnesota and Indiana are both 6-0 in this postseason when leading after three quarters. New York is 4-0 in that scenario.
Oklahoma City is 5-2 — which, given the way the regular season went, is a bit surprising. The Thunder were 61-2 in the regular season when leading going into the fourth quarter.
Player milestones
There are some player milestones to watch out for down the stretch of these playoffs, including:
— Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is 197 points away from 3,000 for the season. He’d be only the fifth player in the last 20 seasons to get there: Luka Doncic had 3,005 last season for Dallas, James Harden had 3,166 in 2018-19 for Houston, Kevin Durant had 3,156 in 2013-14 for Oklahoma City, and Kobe Bryant had 3,027 in 2005-06 for the Los Angeles Lakers.
— Minnesota’s Anthony Edwards needs 45 3-pointers for 400 on the season, something only Stephen Curry (twice) and James Harden (once) have done.
— Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton is 34 assists away from 800 on the season. He would join Mark Jackson as the only Pacers to hit that number twice; Haliburton had 875 last year, while Jackson had 846 in 1997-98 and 828 in 1999-2000.
— New York’s Jalen Brunson is 33 assists shy of having the second season of at least 2,000 points and 600 assists in Knicks history. The other time it happened was last year — by Brunson.
84-win season?
If the Thunder win the NBA title, they would finish the season with 84 wins.
And that would put them among league royalty.
Only the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors (88-18, including playoffs), the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls (87-13) and the 1996-97 Bulls (84-17) have reached the 84-win mark for a season.
Coaching milestones
Indiana coach Rick Carlisle has won 79 playoff games, putting him on the brink of some milestones.
— With one win over the Knicks, he’d pull into a tie with George Karl and Lenny Wilkens for 11th on the all-time playoff win list.
— With two wins over the Knicks, he’d pull into a tie with K.C. Jones for 10th on the playoff list. (And obviously, with three or more wins, he’d pass Jones for outright possession of 10th.)
Also in the East finals, Game 3 will be the 100th career playoff game for Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau. He’ll be the 25th person in NBA history to coach that many playoff games.
Divisions didn’t matter this year
At least one team, and maybe two, that didn’t win a division title will make the NBA Finals this season.
That’s not common.
Going back to 2012, every team that made the NBA Finals — with the lone exception of Golden State in 2022 — did so after winning a division championship that season.
The only division champ left is Oklahoma City. New York was second in the Atlantic Division, Indiana was second in the Central Division and Minnesota was third in the Northwest Division.
BetMGM says
Indiana and Minnesota have covered in 70% of their games so far in the playoffs, according to BetMGM Sportsbook. That’s on pace to be the highest rate of covering since Miami covered 76% of the time during the bubble playoffs in 2020.
Oklahoma City covered 68% of the time during the regular season, the highest figure in at least a decade. But the Thunder have covered in only four of their 11 playoff games — just 36% — entering the conference finals.
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