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“We’re certainly seeing a trend toward a narrowing of the gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives in terms of vote share,” said Clifton van der Linden, a McMaster University political science professor and the CEO of Vox Pop Labs, the independent research organization that developed the Signal, which analyzes publicly available polling data in a supercomputer.

“That hasn’t yet translated into a change in the seats. We’re still projecting a likely Liberal majority in terms of the number of seats,” said van der Linden.

As of Thursday, Carney’s Liberals were at 40.5 per cent support and on track to win a slim majority with 175 seats in the 343-member House of Commons.

Poilievre’s Tories were at 39.4 per cent, which would translate into 128 seats.

Jagmeet Singh’s New Democrats were at nine per cent and 10 seats, while Yves-François Blanchet’s Bloc Québécois was at 6.6 per cent and 28 seats.

The Greens of co-leaders Elizabeth May and Jonathan Pedneault were at 1.8 per cent and two seats, while Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada was at 1.5 per cent and no seats.

Van der Linden noted the Liberals have a more efficient voter base than the Conservatives so the popular vote tallies can be deceptive in a first-past-the-post electoral system.

In the 2019 and 2021 elections, for example, Tory leaders Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole won the most votes while losing out in seats to then-prime minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals.

That’s because CPC candidates traditionally win ridings in Alberta and Saskatchewan by huge margins while the Liberals take constituencies in provinces like Ontario with a smaller percentage of the popular vote.

In Ontario, the Signal said the Liberals were at 44.9 per cent and forecast to win 79 of the province’s 122 ridings. The Tories were at 40.8 per cent and 39 seats, the New Democrats were at 9.9 per cent and three seats while the Greens were at 1.6 per cent and one seat.

In Quebec, the Liberals appear to be facing a slightly more stiff challenge from the Bloc than earlier in the campaign.

The Grits were at 38.7 per cent and 39 of Quebec’s 78 seats while the Bloc was at 27.5 per cent and 28 seats, the Tories were at 23.9 per cent and 10 seats and the NDP was at 6.1 per cent and one seat.

But the Liberals are continuing to dominate in Atlantic Canada, with 54.4 per cent and are expected to win 25 of the 32 seats in Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island.

The Tories were at 35.9 per cent and projected to win the remaining seven seats.

British Columbia remains the most competitive province in the country with the CPC at 41.3 per cent and 21 seats to 37.6 per cent and 17 seats for the Liberals, 14.7 per cent and four seats for the NDP at three per cent and one seat for the Greens.

Since succeeding Trudeau as Liberal leader less than seven weeks ago, Carney, a former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, has resuscitated a party in power since 2015. 

On New Year’s Day, the Signal had the Tories at 46.9 per cent support, the NDP at 18.7 per cent, the Liberals at 18.6 per cent, the Bloc at 9.7 per cent and the Greens at 2.7 per cent.

At the dissolution of Parliament a month ago, the Liberals held 152 seats, the Tories 120, the Bloc 33, the NDP 24 and the Greens two. There were three Independents and four vacancies in the 338-seat Commons, which is being expanded by five ridings due to population changes.