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But Abacus鈥� numbers also hold more terrible news for the party.

The NDP鈥檚 accessible voter pool is dropping: only 35 per cent of survey respondents said they would consider voting for the party, while 55 per cent of Canadians said they would consider voting Liberal, and 50 per cent said they could vote Conservative. NDP voters, according to Abacus, are also more likely to change their minds, with 59 per cent telling the pollster that their vote is not firmed up. That鈥檚 good news for the Grits, since the March 25-27 survey suggests 81 per cent of NDP voters want to see Liberal Leader Mark Carney elected prime minister. (The numbers are similar for Bloc Qu茅b茅cois supporters, 80 per cent of whom say they would also prefer Carney to Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre).

If those data points were not bad enough, Singh remains unpopular as leader with 42 per cent of respondents holding a negative impression of him. It’s not quite听as high as the Conservative leader (45 per cent), but more people like Poilievre (38 per cent) than like Singh (29 per cent).听

On the ground, sources say New Democrats are trying to save the furniture, shifting resources to safeguard incumbent seats, and have considered abandoning ridings in favour of investing in electoral districts they have an actual shot at winning. The party鈥檚 spokesperson declined to offer comment on the record.

The picture is so bleak that this week,听the party鈥檚 former leader, Thomas Mulcair, in an op-ed for BNN Bloomberg argued that due to 鈥渁 tight race鈥� progressives should line up behind Carney. 鈥�...this is shaping up to be a race between the ruling Liberals and the opposition Conservatives, with little room to spare for the others,鈥� Mulcair听. 鈥淚f you can鈥檛 seriously say you鈥檙e going to form a government that can take on Trump, then get out of the way and let the only real contenders have at it.鈥�

In some circles, Mulcair’s call was greeted with affirmations that the former NDP leader was never a New Democrat in the first place. Former NDP MP, and former B.C. NDP cabinet minister Nathan Cullen听听in the National Post that Mulcair is wrong and that there is a place for the NDP, noting that the party鈥檚 24 MPs were instrumental in bringing in a dental care program and the beginnings of a public pharmacare program.听

In a way, they are both right.

For progressives, the real risk is a Conservative government. Most New Democrats, Liberals, Green and Bloc voters are repulsed at the thought of Poilievre as prime minister, especially at a time when Trump threatens Canada鈥檚 economy and sovereignty. The split progressive vote has contributed to Conservatives winning seats, notably in the GTA, just like vote splitting on the right helped prime minister Jean Chr茅tien win majority governments. On the Star鈥檚 political podcast, 鈥淚t鈥檚 Political,鈥� outgoing Bloc MP Kristina Michaud described the situation for the Bloc and the NDP as voters feeling like the smaller parties are 鈥渁 luxury that people cannot really afford right now in this situation.鈥�

But if Singh wants to ensure his party remains relevant, he needs to make the case that New Democrats aren鈥檛 a luxury. He should stop pretending he鈥檚 running to be prime minister, as he declared at the launch of the election 鈥� nobody believes this 鈥� and focus instead on pitching voters on the need for New Democrats in Parliament.

That鈥檚 a message former NDP MP David Christopherson is urging Singh to adopt. This week, on 鈥淚t鈥檚 Political,鈥� Christopherson said he wants to see a Liberal majority in Parliament but also believes every NDP incumbent should be re-elected. 鈥淵es, pick the prime minister we want, give them a majority government so they can lead us through this. But you need a strong contingent of progressive, hardworking NDP peers to hold them to account. Otherwise, in a couple of years, you won’t be able to tell the difference between the Libs and the Cons,鈥� he said. 鈥淚 think Jagmeet got great arguments if he would just pivot and use them.鈥�